Prediction 3578
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Amapá |
Description:
Validation test 3 for UF=AP (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-06 | 124.0 | 34.0 | 45.0 | 60.0 | 88.0 | 167.0 | 214.0 | 245.0 | 275.0 |
| 2024-10-13 | 117.0 | 28.0 | 40.0 | 54.0 | 81.0 | 160.0 | 205.0 | 237.0 | 266.0 |
| 2024-10-20 | 110.0 | 23.0 | 34.0 | 48.0 | 74.0 | 152.0 | 197.0 | 228.0 | 257.0 |
| 2024-10-27 | 115.0 | 25.0 | 36.0 | 51.0 | 78.0 | 159.0 | 206.0 | 238.0 | 269.0 |
| 2024-11-03 | 105.0 | 19.0 | 30.0 | 43.0 | 70.0 | 148.0 | 194.0 | 226.0 | 256.0 |
| 2024-11-10 | 97.0 | 13.0 | 24.0 | 37.0 | 63.0 | 139.0 | 183.0 | 214.0 | 243.0 |
| 2024-11-17 | 88.0 | 7.0 | 18.0 | 30.0 | 55.0 | 129.0 | 172.0 | 202.0 | 231.0 |
| 2024-11-24 | 80.0 | 2.0 | 12.0 | 24.0 | 48.0 | 119.0 | 161.0 | 190.0 | 217.0 |
| 2024-12-01 | 78.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 22.0 | 46.0 | 117.0 | 160.0 | 189.0 | 217.0 |
| 2024-12-08 | 71.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 17.0 | 40.0 | 109.0 | 150.0 | 178.0 | 205.0 |
| 2024-12-15 | 67.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 14.0 | 37.0 | 104.0 | 145.0 | 173.0 | 200.0 |
| 2024-12-22 | 69.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 15.0 | 38.0 | 107.0 | 149.0 | 177.0 | 205.0 |
| 2024-12-29 | 105.0 | 13.0 | 25.0 | 39.0 | 67.0 | 152.0 | 203.0 | 238.0 | 272.0 |
| 2025-01-05 | 109.0 | 15.0 | 27.0 | 41.0 | 70.0 | 157.0 | 209.0 | 246.0 | 280.0 |
| 2025-01-12 | 111.0 | 15.0 | 27.0 | 42.0 | 71.0 | 159.0 | 212.0 | 249.0 | 284.0 |
| 2025-01-19 | 110.0 | 14.0 | 26.0 | 41.0 | 70.0 | 158.0 | 211.0 | 248.0 | 284.0 |
| 2025-01-26 | 137.0 | 29.0 | 42.0 | 59.0 | 92.0 | 192.0 | 253.0 | 295.0 | 336.0 |
| 2025-02-02 | 135.0 | 27.0 | 40.0 | 57.0 | 90.0 | 190.0 | 250.0 | 292.0 | 333.0 |
| 2025-02-09 | 142.0 | 31.0 | 45.0 | 62.0 | 96.0 | 199.0 | 262.0 | 306.0 | 348.0 |
| 2025-02-16 | 136.0 | 27.0 | 41.0 | 58.0 | 91.0 | 193.0 | 254.0 | 297.0 | 339.0 |
| 2025-02-23 | 146.0 | 32.0 | 46.0 | 64.0 | 98.0 | 204.0 | 269.0 | 314.0 | 358.0 |
| 2025-03-02 | 147.0 | 32.0 | 46.0 | 64.0 | 99.0 | 206.0 | 272.0 | 317.0 | 361.0 |
| 2025-03-09 | 124.0 | 20.0 | 32.0 | 48.0 | 80.0 | 177.0 | 237.0 | 278.0 | 318.0 |
| 2025-03-16 | 110.0 | 12.0 | 24.0 | 39.0 | 69.0 | 160.0 | 216.0 | 256.0 | 293.0 |
| 2025-03-23 | 114.0 | 14.0 | 26.0 | 42.0 | 72.0 | 166.0 | 223.0 | 263.0 | 302.0 |
| 2025-03-30 | 124.0 | 19.0 | 32.0 | 48.0 | 80.0 | 179.0 | 239.0 | 281.0 | 322.0 |
| 2025-04-06 | 103.0 | 8.0 | 19.0 | 34.0 | 63.0 | 153.0 | 208.0 | 246.0 | 284.0 |
| 2025-04-13 | 96.0 | 4.0 | 15.0 | 29.0 | 58.0 | 144.0 | 198.0 | 235.0 | 271.0 |
| 2025-04-20 | 83.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 21.0 | 47.0 | 128.0 | 178.0 | 213.0 | 247.0 |
| 2025-04-27 | 81.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 19.0 | 45.0 | 125.0 | 174.0 | 209.0 | 242.0 |
| 2025-05-04 | 81.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 19.0 | 45.0 | 126.0 | 175.0 | 210.0 | 244.0 |
| 2025-05-11 | 75.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 15.0 | 40.0 | 118.0 | 167.0 | 200.0 | 233.0 |
| 2025-05-18 | 68.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 34.0 | 109.0 | 156.0 | 188.0 | 219.0 |
| 2025-05-25 | 66.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 33.0 | 107.0 | 153.0 | 185.0 | 216.0 |
| 2025-06-01 | 67.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 33.0 | 108.0 | 154.0 | 187.0 | 218.0 |
| 2025-06-08 | 63.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 30.0 | 104.0 | 149.0 | 181.0 | 212.0 |
| 2025-06-15 | 64.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 31.0 | 105.0 | 150.0 | 182.0 | 213.0 |
| 2025-06-22 | 59.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 27.0 | 99.0 | 143.0 | 174.0 | 204.0 |
| 2025-06-29 | 59.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 27.0 | 99.0 | 144.0 | 175.0 | 206.0 |
| 2025-07-06 | 60.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 27.0 | 100.0 | 145.0 | 177.0 | 208.0 |
| 2025-07-13 | 56.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 25.0 | 96.0 | 141.0 | 172.0 | 202.0 |
| 2025-07-20 | 58.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 26.0 | 99.0 | 144.0 | 176.0 | 207.0 |
| 2025-07-27 | 63.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 29.0 | 104.0 | 151.0 | 184.0 | 216.0 |
| 2025-08-03 | 68.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 34.0 | 111.0 | 160.0 | 194.0 | 227.0 |
| 2025-08-10 | 65.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 31.0 | 108.0 | 156.0 | 189.0 | 222.0 |
| 2025-08-17 | 67.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 33.0 | 110.0 | 158.0 | 193.0 | 226.0 |
| 2025-08-24 | 64.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 30.0 | 106.0 | 154.0 | 187.0 | 220.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 61.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 28.0 | 103.0 | 150.0 | 183.0 | 215.0 |
| 2025-09-07 | 61.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 28.0 | 103.0 | 150.0 | 184.0 | 216.0 |
| 2025-09-14 | 64.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 30.0 | 107.0 | 155.0 | 189.0 | 222.0 |
| 2025-09-21 | 64.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 30.0 | 107.0 | 156.0 | 190.0 | 223.0 |
| 2025-09-28 | 65.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 31.0 | 109.0 | 158.0 | 192.0 | 226.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
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