Prediction 3579
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Bahia |
Description:
Validation test 3 for UF=BA (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-06 | 419.0 | 74.0 | 108.0 | 154.0 | 256.0 | 655.0 | 959.0 | 1197.0 | 1445.0 |
| 2024-10-13 | 421.0 | 71.0 | 104.0 | 151.0 | 255.0 | 664.0 | 979.0 | 1226.0 | 1487.0 |
| 2024-10-20 | 410.0 | 64.0 | 97.0 | 143.0 | 245.0 | 654.0 | 972.0 | 1224.0 | 1489.0 |
| 2024-10-27 | 393.0 | 55.0 | 87.0 | 131.0 | 231.0 | 633.0 | 949.0 | 1200.0 | 1466.0 |
| 2024-11-03 | 410.0 | 57.0 | 90.0 | 136.0 | 240.0 | 664.0 | 1000.0 | 1267.0 | 1552.0 |
| 2024-11-10 | 409.0 | 54.0 | 87.0 | 133.0 | 238.0 | 668.0 | 1011.0 | 1286.0 | 1579.0 |
| 2024-11-17 | 429.0 | 58.0 | 92.0 | 140.0 | 249.0 | 702.0 | 1067.0 | 1360.0 | 1673.0 |
| 2024-11-24 | 449.0 | 61.0 | 96.0 | 146.0 | 260.0 | 737.0 | 1124.0 | 1437.0 | 1771.0 |
| 2024-12-01 | 456.0 | 61.0 | 96.0 | 147.0 | 263.0 | 752.0 | 1151.0 | 1474.0 | 1822.0 |
| 2024-12-08 | 429.0 | 51.0 | 84.0 | 133.0 | 243.0 | 714.0 | 1101.0 | 1415.0 | 1754.0 |
| 2024-12-15 | 361.0 | 30.0 | 59.0 | 101.0 | 198.0 | 613.0 | 956.0 | 1235.0 | 1537.0 |
| 2024-12-22 | 354.0 | 26.0 | 55.0 | 97.0 | 192.0 | 606.0 | 950.0 | 1231.0 | 1536.0 |
| 2024-12-29 | 701.0 | 120.0 | 171.0 | 244.0 | 413.0 | 1150.0 | 1765.0 | 2270.0 | 2818.0 |
| 2025-01-05 | 818.0 | 149.0 | 207.0 | 291.0 | 486.0 | 1338.0 | 2054.0 | 2644.0 | 3284.0 |
| 2025-01-12 | 940.0 | 179.0 | 245.0 | 340.0 | 561.0 | 1535.0 | 2357.0 | 3035.0 | 3773.0 |
| 2025-01-19 | 1118.0 | 224.0 | 300.0 | 412.0 | 672.0 | 1822.0 | 2797.0 | 3604.0 | 4483.0 |
| 2025-01-26 | 1417.0 | 299.0 | 395.0 | 534.0 | 858.0 | 2302.0 | 3532.0 | 4551.0 | 5665.0 |
| 2025-02-02 | 1627.0 | 350.0 | 459.0 | 617.0 | 987.0 | 2643.0 | 4059.0 | 5236.0 | 6523.0 |
| 2025-02-09 | 1908.0 | 419.0 | 545.0 | 729.0 | 1160.0 | 3098.0 | 4763.0 | 6149.0 | 7667.0 |
| 2025-02-16 | 2207.0 | 491.0 | 636.0 | 847.0 | 1344.0 | 3585.0 | 5518.0 | 7130.0 | 8899.0 |
| 2025-02-23 | 2474.0 | 554.0 | 716.0 | 951.0 | 1507.0 | 4022.0 | 6200.0 | 8020.0 | 10020.0 |
| 2025-03-02 | 2680.0 | 602.0 | 776.0 | 1030.0 | 1631.0 | 4365.0 | 6740.0 | 8728.0 | 10915.0 |
| 2025-03-09 | 2844.0 | 638.0 | 822.0 | 1091.0 | 1729.0 | 4640.0 | 7177.0 | 9305.0 | 11648.0 |
| 2025-03-16 | 2823.0 | 628.0 | 810.0 | 1078.0 | 1711.0 | 4617.0 | 7157.0 | 9291.0 | 11644.0 |
| 2025-03-23 | 2768.0 | 609.0 | 788.0 | 1050.0 | 1673.0 | 4539.0 | 7050.0 | 9164.0 | 11497.0 |
| 2025-03-30 | 2996.0 | 661.0 | 854.0 | 1137.0 | 1811.0 | 4919.0 | 7651.0 | 9953.0 | 12497.0 |
| 2025-04-06 | 2980.0 | 653.0 | 844.0 | 1126.0 | 1797.0 | 4903.0 | 7640.0 | 9950.0 | 12505.0 |
| 2025-04-13 | 2888.0 | 626.0 | 811.0 | 1085.0 | 1736.0 | 4761.0 | 7434.0 | 9693.0 | 12194.0 |
| 2025-04-20 | 2727.0 | 583.0 | 759.0 | 1017.0 | 1634.0 | 4508.0 | 7054.0 | 9208.0 | 11595.0 |
| 2025-04-27 | 2711.0 | 576.0 | 750.0 | 1007.0 | 1621.0 | 4490.0 | 7036.0 | 9193.0 | 11586.0 |
| 2025-05-04 | 2623.0 | 552.0 | 720.0 | 969.0 | 1565.0 | 4354.0 | 6835.0 | 8940.0 | 11276.0 |
| 2025-05-11 | 2284.0 | 468.0 | 615.0 | 833.0 | 1355.0 | 3806.0 | 5991.0 | 7846.0 | 9907.0 |
| 2025-05-18 | 1913.0 | 377.0 | 502.0 | 686.0 | 1127.0 | 3202.0 | 5056.0 | 6631.0 | 8383.0 |
| 2025-05-25 | 1697.0 | 324.0 | 435.0 | 599.0 | 994.0 | 2852.0 | 4515.0 | 5930.0 | 7505.0 |
| 2025-06-01 | 1428.0 | 260.0 | 354.0 | 493.0 | 829.0 | 2414.0 | 3835.0 | 5046.0 | 6393.0 |
| 2025-06-08 | 1166.0 | 197.0 | 275.0 | 390.0 | 669.0 | 1986.0 | 3169.0 | 4178.0 | 5301.0 |
| 2025-06-15 | 910.0 | 136.0 | 198.0 | 290.0 | 512.0 | 1565.0 | 2513.0 | 3321.0 | 4223.0 |
| 2025-06-22 | 844.0 | 119.0 | 177.0 | 263.0 | 471.0 | 1460.0 | 2354.0 | 3117.0 | 3969.0 |
| 2025-06-29 | 813.0 | 110.0 | 166.0 | 250.0 | 451.0 | 1414.0 | 2286.0 | 3032.0 | 3867.0 |
| 2025-07-06 | 752.0 | 95.0 | 147.0 | 225.0 | 413.0 | 1316.0 | 2137.0 | 2841.0 | 3628.0 |
| 2025-07-13 | 655.0 | 72.0 | 118.0 | 186.0 | 353.0 | 1157.0 | 1890.0 | 2519.0 | 3223.0 |
| 2025-07-20 | 568.0 | 51.0 | 91.0 | 152.0 | 300.0 | 1014.0 | 1666.0 | 2228.0 | 2857.0 |
| 2025-07-27 | 535.0 | 42.0 | 81.0 | 139.0 | 280.0 | 962.0 | 1587.0 | 2125.0 | 2730.0 |
| 2025-08-03 | 478.0 | 29.0 | 64.0 | 117.0 | 245.0 | 868.0 | 1440.0 | 1934.0 | 2488.0 |
| 2025-08-10 | 424.0 | 16.0 | 48.0 | 96.0 | 212.0 | 779.0 | 1301.0 | 1752.0 | 2260.0 |
| 2025-08-17 | 389.0 | 8.0 | 38.0 | 82.0 | 191.0 | 723.0 | 1214.0 | 1639.0 | 2117.0 |
| 2025-08-24 | 353.0 | 0.0 | 27.0 | 68.0 | 169.0 | 664.0 | 1121.0 | 1517.0 | 1964.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 320.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 56.0 | 149.0 | 609.0 | 1035.0 | 1405.0 | 1822.0 |
| 2025-09-07 | 299.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 47.0 | 136.0 | 575.0 | 982.0 | 1335.0 | 1734.0 |
| 2025-09-14 | 287.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 42.0 | 129.0 | 555.0 | 951.0 | 1296.0 | 1685.0 |
| 2025-09-21 | 274.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 37.0 | 121.0 | 535.0 | 920.0 | 1256.0 | 1634.0 |
| 2025-09-28 | 270.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 35.0 | 118.0 | 528.0 | 910.0 | 1243.0 | 1620.0 |
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