Prediction 358

Dengue Sprint2425 R Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Modelo Model 1 - Weekly and yearly (iid) components
Autor Marcio Maciel Bastos

Descrição:

This upload represents the epidemic prediction for unseen data from the period of 2024-06-16 to 2025-10-05 in the state GO. The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one is assumed to be iid.


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date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2024-06-16 5351.98 - 5268.34 - - - - 5436.61 -
2024-06-23 4849.21 - 4769.86 - - - - 4929.54 -
2024-06-30 3079.00 - 3016.59 - - - - 3142.36 -
2024-07-07 3570.87 - 3503.42 - - - - 3639.27 -
2024-07-14 3082.26 - 3019.85 - - - - 3145.62 -
2024-07-21 2380.56 - 2326.05 - - - - 2436.02 -
2024-07-28 2575.36 - 2518.56 - - - - 2633.11 -
2024-08-04 1971.78 - 1922.37 - - - - 2022.12 -
2024-08-11 2083.68 - 2032.83 - - - - 2135.46 -
2024-08-18 1708.43 - 1662.57 - - - - 1755.22 -
2024-08-25 2115.56 - 2064.30 - - - - 2167.77 -
2024-09-01 1631.66 - 1586.86 - - - - 1677.38 -
2024-09-08 2190.78 - 2138.58 - - - - 2243.91 -
2024-09-15 2206.36 - 2153.98 - - - - 2259.68 -
2024-09-22 2501.36 - 2445.42 - - - - 2558.24 -
2024-09-29 2279.21 - 2225.93 - - - - 2333.42 -
2024-10-06 2242.68 - 2189.84 - - - - 2296.45 -
2024-10-13 2725.79 - 2667.27 - - - - 2785.25 -
2024-10-20 2552.64 - 2496.10 - - - - 2610.11 -
2024-10-27 2557.59 - 2501.00 - - - - 2615.12 -
2024-11-03 2877.33 - 2817.14 - - - - 2938.47 -
2024-11-10 3076.65 - 3014.30 - - - - 3139.95 -
2024-11-17 3605.10 - 3537.32 - - - - 3673.85 -
2024-11-24 3282.30 - 3217.77 - - - - 3347.78 -
2024-12-01 4616.76 - 4539.45 - - - - 4695.04 -
2024-12-08 3723.54 - 3654.59 - - - - 3793.45 -
2024-12-15 3244.67 - 3180.54 - - - - 3309.75 -
2024-12-22 3968.70 - 3901.01 - - - - 4037.25 -
2024-12-29 2143.34 - 469.62 - - - - 6332.58 -
2025-01-05 2255.66 - 494.24 - - - - 6664.43 -
2025-01-12 2556.63 - 560.18 - - - - 7553.63 -
2025-01-19 2838.40 - 621.93 - - - - 8386.09 -
2025-01-26 3345.42 - 733.03 - - - - 9884.07 -
2025-02-02 3631.22 - 795.65 - - - - 10728.46 -
2025-02-09 4112.85 - 901.19 - - - - 12151.39 -
2025-02-16 4937.15 - 1081.81 - - - - 14586.76 -
2025-02-23 4505.07 - 987.13 - - - - 13310.21 -
2025-03-02 4572.38 - 1001.88 - - - - 13509.08 -
2025-03-09 5044.41 - 1105.31 - - - - 14903.66 -
2025-03-16 4704.98 - 1030.93 - - - - 13900.81 -
2025-03-23 4357.85 - 954.87 - - - - 12875.26 -
2025-03-30 4557.74 - 998.67 - - - - 13465.79 -
2025-04-06 4020.84 - 881.02 - - - - 11879.59 -
2025-04-13 4792.78 - 1050.17 - - - - 14160.22 -
2025-04-20 4760.04 - 1043.00 - - - - 14063.49 -
2025-04-27 4625.58 - 1013.54 - - - - 13666.24 -
2025-05-04 4336.24 - 950.13 - - - - 12811.39 -
2025-05-11 3840.13 - 841.43 - - - - 11345.66 -
2025-05-18 2939.53 - 644.09 - - - - 8684.89 -
2025-05-25 2433.30 - 533.16 - - - - 7189.25 -
2025-06-01 2209.15 - 484.04 - - - - 6527.02 -
2025-06-08 1791.89 - 392.61 - - - - 5294.25 -
2025-06-15 1520.64 - 333.17 - - - - 4492.90 -
2025-06-22 1377.79 - 301.86 - - - - 4070.86 -
2025-06-29 874.82 - 191.65 - - - - 2584.88 -
2025-07-06 1014.57 - 222.28 - - - - 2997.76 -
2025-07-13 875.75 - 191.86 - - - - 2587.61 -
2025-07-20 676.38 - 148.17 - - - - 1998.58 -
2025-07-27 731.73 - 160.30 - - - - 2162.10 -
2025-08-03 560.23 - 122.72 - - - - 1655.43 -
2025-08-10 592.03 - 129.69 - - - - 1749.36 -
2025-08-17 485.41 - 106.33 - - - - 1434.37 -
2025-08-24 601.09 - 131.67 - - - - 1776.13 -
2025-08-31 463.60 - 101.55 - - - - 1369.92 -
2025-09-07 622.46 - 136.36 - - - - 1839.27 -
2025-09-14 626.88 - 137.33 - - - - 1852.35 -
2025-09-21 710.70 - 155.69 - - - - 2099.98 -
2025-09-28 647.58 - 141.86 - - - - 1913.50 -
2025-10-05 637.20 - 139.59 - - - - 1882.84 -
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