Prediction 3580
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Ceará |
Description:
Validation test 3 for UF=CE (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-06 | 34.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 85.0 | 148.0 | 195.0 | 243.0 |
| 2024-10-13 | 29.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 80.0 | 143.0 | 190.0 | 239.0 |
| 2024-10-20 | 27.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 78.0 | 141.0 | 189.0 | 239.0 |
| 2024-10-27 | 30.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 83.0 | 149.0 | 199.0 | 252.0 |
| 2024-11-03 | 38.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 95.0 | 167.0 | 222.0 | 279.0 |
| 2024-11-10 | 36.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 94.0 | 167.0 | 223.0 | 281.0 |
| 2024-11-17 | 49.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 114.0 | 195.0 | 258.0 | 323.0 |
| 2024-11-24 | 48.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 113.0 | 196.0 | 260.0 | 326.0 |
| 2024-12-01 | 55.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 124.0 | 212.0 | 280.0 | 351.0 |
| 2024-12-08 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 118.0 | 205.0 | 272.0 | 343.0 |
| 2024-12-15 | 34.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 95.0 | 173.0 | 235.0 | 299.0 |
| 2024-12-22 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 74.0 | 145.0 | 200.0 | 259.0 |
| 2024-12-29 | 64.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 140.0 | 239.0 | 316.0 | 398.0 |
| 2025-01-05 | 80.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 | 165.0 | 274.0 | 361.0 | 452.0 |
| 2025-01-12 | 117.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 47.0 | 220.0 | 354.0 | 460.0 | 571.0 |
| 2025-01-19 | 144.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 65.0 | 262.0 | 414.0 | 535.0 | 663.0 |
| 2025-01-26 | 191.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 38.0 | 96.0 | 332.0 | 516.0 | 662.0 | 816.0 |
| 2025-02-02 | 217.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 49.0 | 113.0 | 372.0 | 575.0 | 735.0 | 906.0 |
| 2025-02-09 | 260.0 | 13.0 | 36.0 | 68.0 | 141.0 | 437.0 | 669.0 | 854.0 | 1049.0 |
| 2025-02-16 | 290.0 | 21.0 | 47.0 | 82.0 | 161.0 | 484.0 | 738.0 | 940.0 | 1155.0 |
| 2025-02-23 | 355.0 | 40.0 | 70.0 | 111.0 | 203.0 | 581.0 | 880.0 | 1118.0 | 1371.0 |
| 2025-03-02 | 416.0 | 59.0 | 92.0 | 139.0 | 244.0 | 675.0 | 1017.0 | 1291.0 | 1581.0 |
| 2025-03-09 | 469.0 | 74.0 | 110.0 | 162.0 | 278.0 | 755.0 | 1135.0 | 1439.0 | 1762.0 |
| 2025-03-16 | 478.0 | 76.0 | 113.0 | 165.0 | 284.0 | 771.0 | 1160.0 | 1472.0 | 1804.0 |
| 2025-03-23 | 536.0 | 92.0 | 133.0 | 191.0 | 321.0 | 860.0 | 1291.0 | 1637.0 | 2005.0 |
| 2025-03-30 | 758.0 | 158.0 | 213.0 | 291.0 | 467.0 | 1197.0 | 1783.0 | 2253.0 | 2754.0 |
| 2025-04-06 | 829.0 | 178.0 | 238.0 | 322.0 | 514.0 | 1308.0 | 1946.0 | 2459.0 | 3007.0 |
| 2025-04-13 | 896.0 | 197.0 | 260.0 | 351.0 | 557.0 | 1412.0 | 2100.0 | 2654.0 | 3246.0 |
| 2025-04-20 | 914.0 | 201.0 | 266.0 | 358.0 | 567.0 | 1441.0 | 2146.0 | 2713.0 | 3321.0 |
| 2025-04-27 | 945.0 | 208.0 | 275.0 | 371.0 | 587.0 | 1490.0 | 2219.0 | 2808.0 | 3438.0 |
| 2025-05-04 | 964.0 | 213.0 | 281.0 | 378.0 | 598.0 | 1521.0 | 2267.0 | 2870.0 | 3516.0 |
| 2025-05-11 | 945.0 | 206.0 | 273.0 | 368.0 | 585.0 | 1494.0 | 2231.0 | 2827.0 | 3465.0 |
| 2025-05-18 | 853.0 | 178.0 | 239.0 | 326.0 | 524.0 | 1355.0 | 2031.0 | 2577.0 | 3162.0 |
| 2025-05-25 | 764.0 | 152.0 | 207.0 | 286.0 | 465.0 | 1222.0 | 1837.0 | 2335.0 | 2869.0 |
| 2025-06-01 | 735.0 | 142.0 | 196.0 | 272.0 | 446.0 | 1178.0 | 1776.0 | 2259.0 | 2778.0 |
| 2025-06-08 | 677.0 | 125.0 | 174.0 | 245.0 | 407.0 | 1091.0 | 1648.0 | 2100.0 | 2586.0 |
| 2025-06-15 | 601.0 | 102.0 | 147.0 | 211.0 | 357.0 | 975.0 | 1481.0 | 1890.0 | 2330.0 |
| 2025-06-22 | 539.0 | 83.0 | 124.0 | 182.0 | 316.0 | 881.0 | 1344.0 | 1720.0 | 2125.0 |
| 2025-06-29 | 507.0 | 73.0 | 112.0 | 168.0 | 295.0 | 835.0 | 1278.0 | 1638.0 | 2026.0 |
| 2025-07-06 | 433.0 | 52.0 | 86.0 | 134.0 | 246.0 | 722.0 | 1114.0 | 1433.0 | 1776.0 |
| 2025-07-13 | 389.0 | 38.0 | 70.0 | 114.0 | 217.0 | 655.0 | 1016.0 | 1311.0 | 1628.0 |
| 2025-07-20 | 377.0 | 34.0 | 65.0 | 108.0 | 208.0 | 638.0 | 992.0 | 1281.0 | 1593.0 |
| 2025-07-27 | 351.0 | 27.0 | 55.0 | 97.0 | 192.0 | 599.0 | 936.0 | 1211.0 | 1509.0 |
| 2025-08-03 | 311.0 | 15.0 | 41.0 | 79.0 | 165.0 | 537.0 | 846.0 | 1098.0 | 1370.0 |
| 2025-08-10 | 283.0 | 7.0 | 31.0 | 66.0 | 146.0 | 494.0 | 783.0 | 1019.0 | 1274.0 |
| 2025-08-17 | 239.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 46.0 | 118.0 | 426.0 | 683.0 | 892.0 | 1120.0 |
| 2025-08-24 | 192.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 26.0 | 87.0 | 354.0 | 576.0 | 757.0 | 954.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 185.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 23.0 | 83.0 | 343.0 | 561.0 | 739.0 | 932.0 |
| 2025-09-07 | 159.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 66.0 | 304.0 | 503.0 | 666.0 | 843.0 |
| 2025-09-14 | 151.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 61.0 | 292.0 | 485.0 | 643.0 | 815.0 |
| 2025-09-21 | 127.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 45.0 | 254.0 | 430.0 | 573.0 | 729.0 |
| 2025-09-28 | 113.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 36.0 | 233.0 | 397.0 | 533.0 | 680.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
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