Prediction 3581
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Distrito Federal |
Description:
Validation test 3 for UF=DF (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-06 | 176.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 39.0 | 93.0 | 297.0 | 450.0 | 568.0 | 691.0 |
| 2024-10-13 | 183.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 40.0 | 95.0 | 311.0 | 473.0 | 600.0 | 733.0 |
| 2024-10-20 | 166.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 29.0 | 82.0 | 289.0 | 448.0 | 572.0 | 703.0 |
| 2024-10-27 | 159.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 24.0 | 76.0 | 282.0 | 442.0 | 568.0 | 701.0 |
| 2024-11-03 | 179.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 31.0 | 87.0 | 314.0 | 492.0 | 633.0 | 782.0 |
| 2024-11-10 | 191.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 35.0 | 94.0 | 336.0 | 528.0 | 680.0 | 843.0 |
| 2024-11-17 | 212.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 42.0 | 106.0 | 371.0 | 582.0 | 752.0 | 932.0 |
| 2024-11-24 | 226.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 47.0 | 114.0 | 396.0 | 623.0 | 807.0 | 1003.0 |
| 2024-12-01 | 270.0 | 7.0 | 31.0 | 65.0 | 141.0 | 466.0 | 731.0 | 946.0 | 1177.0 |
| 2024-12-08 | 293.0 | 12.0 | 37.0 | 73.0 | 155.0 | 506.0 | 794.0 | 1029.0 | 1282.0 |
| 2024-12-15 | 278.0 | 5.0 | 30.0 | 64.0 | 144.0 | 487.0 | 772.0 | 1005.0 | 1256.0 |
| 2024-12-22 | 261.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 | 55.0 | 131.0 | 464.0 | 743.0 | 972.0 | 1220.0 |
| 2024-12-29 | 439.0 | 45.0 | 79.0 | 129.0 | 243.0 | 747.0 | 1172.0 | 1523.0 | 1904.0 |
| 2025-01-05 | 453.0 | 46.0 | 81.0 | 132.0 | 250.0 | 773.0 | 1218.0 | 1586.0 | 1988.0 |
| 2025-01-12 | 527.0 | 63.0 | 103.0 | 160.0 | 295.0 | 896.0 | 1411.0 | 1839.0 | 2307.0 |
| 2025-01-19 | 573.0 | 73.0 | 115.0 | 176.0 | 321.0 | 975.0 | 1539.0 | 2010.0 | 2526.0 |
| 2025-01-26 | 671.0 | 95.0 | 143.0 | 213.0 | 380.0 | 1138.0 | 1796.0 | 2347.0 | 2953.0 |
| 2025-02-02 | 743.0 | 110.0 | 162.0 | 240.0 | 422.0 | 1261.0 | 1994.0 | 2610.0 | 3290.0 |
| 2025-02-09 | 737.0 | 105.0 | 157.0 | 234.0 | 416.0 | 1257.0 | 1997.0 | 2622.0 | 3312.0 |
| 2025-02-16 | 782.0 | 113.0 | 168.0 | 249.0 | 441.0 | 1338.0 | 2132.0 | 2804.0 | 3548.0 |
| 2025-02-23 | 860.0 | 129.0 | 188.0 | 276.0 | 486.0 | 1471.0 | 2349.0 | 3094.0 | 3922.0 |
| 2025-03-02 | 924.0 | 141.0 | 204.0 | 298.0 | 523.0 | 1584.0 | 2536.0 | 3346.0 | 4248.0 |
| 2025-03-09 | 964.0 | 147.0 | 213.0 | 310.0 | 544.0 | 1657.0 | 2661.0 | 3518.0 | 4474.0 |
| 2025-03-16 | 1035.0 | 161.0 | 230.0 | 334.0 | 584.0 | 1783.0 | 2870.0 | 3801.0 | 4841.0 |
| 2025-03-23 | 1040.0 | 159.0 | 228.0 | 332.0 | 584.0 | 1798.0 | 2905.0 | 3855.0 | 4919.0 |
| 2025-03-30 | 1064.0 | 161.0 | 232.0 | 338.0 | 596.0 | 1846.0 | 2992.0 | 3978.0 | 5086.0 |
| 2025-04-06 | 1203.0 | 189.0 | 268.0 | 387.0 | 676.0 | 2087.0 | 3387.0 | 4509.0 | 5771.0 |
| 2025-04-13 | 1162.0 | 177.0 | 253.0 | 368.0 | 649.0 | 2026.0 | 3300.0 | 4404.0 | 5647.0 |
| 2025-04-20 | 1128.0 | 167.0 | 241.0 | 352.0 | 626.0 | 1976.0 | 3231.0 | 4321.0 | 5551.0 |
| 2025-04-27 | 1131.0 | 165.0 | 239.0 | 351.0 | 625.0 | 1989.0 | 3263.0 | 4372.0 | 5625.0 |
| 2025-05-04 | 1073.0 | 150.0 | 220.0 | 326.0 | 589.0 | 1897.0 | 3125.0 | 4195.0 | 5408.0 |
| 2025-05-11 | 1019.0 | 136.0 | 203.0 | 304.0 | 555.0 | 1811.0 | 2995.0 | 4030.0 | 5205.0 |
| 2025-05-18 | 871.0 | 103.0 | 161.0 | 249.0 | 466.0 | 1564.0 | 2602.0 | 3512.0 | 4547.0 |
| 2025-05-25 | 831.0 | 93.0 | 148.0 | 232.0 | 442.0 | 1501.0 | 2509.0 | 3393.0 | 4400.0 |
| 2025-06-01 | 705.0 | 65.0 | 113.0 | 186.0 | 367.0 | 1289.0 | 2168.0 | 2942.0 | 3825.0 |
| 2025-06-08 | 619.0 | 46.0 | 89.0 | 154.0 | 316.0 | 1145.0 | 1939.0 | 2639.0 | 3438.0 |
| 2025-06-15 | 485.0 | 18.0 | 53.0 | 105.0 | 237.0 | 915.0 | 1567.0 | 2143.0 | 2802.0 |
| 2025-06-22 | 374.0 | 0.0 | 23.0 | 65.0 | 172.0 | 725.0 | 1259.0 | 1732.0 | 2274.0 |
| 2025-06-29 | 320.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 46.0 | 141.0 | 634.0 | 1113.0 | 1537.0 | 2025.0 |
| 2025-07-06 | 288.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 34.0 | 122.0 | 580.0 | 1026.0 | 1423.0 | 1880.0 |
| 2025-07-13 | 247.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 97.0 | 509.0 | 912.0 | 1270.0 | 1683.0 |
| 2025-07-20 | 214.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 78.0 | 453.0 | 821.0 | 1149.0 | 1528.0 |
| 2025-07-27 | 211.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 76.0 | 450.0 | 819.0 | 1149.0 | 1529.0 |
| 2025-08-03 | 183.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 60.0 | 401.0 | 739.0 | 1042.0 | 1392.0 |
| 2025-08-10 | 181.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 58.0 | 399.0 | 738.0 | 1042.0 | 1394.0 |
| 2025-08-17 | 161.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 46.0 | 365.0 | 682.0 | 967.0 | 1298.0 |
| 2025-08-24 | 165.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 48.0 | 373.0 | 697.0 | 990.0 | 1329.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 171.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 52.0 | 386.0 | 722.0 | 1025.0 | 1377.0 |
| 2025-09-07 | 179.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 55.0 | 400.0 | 747.0 | 1061.0 | 1426.0 |
| 2025-09-14 | 164.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 47.0 | 375.0 | 706.0 | 1006.0 | 1355.0 |
| 2025-09-21 | 171.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | 388.0 | 730.0 | 1041.0 | 1403.0 |
| 2025-09-28 | 161.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 44.0 | 372.0 | 704.0 | 1006.0 | 1359.0 |
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