Prediction 3582
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Espírito Santo |
Description:
Validation test 3 for UF=ES (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-06 | 767.0 | 138.0 | 193.0 | 272.0 | 456.0 | 1252.0 | 1917.0 | 2463.0 | 3054.0 |
| 2024-10-13 | 729.0 | 120.0 | 173.0 | 249.0 | 425.0 | 1208.0 | 1871.0 | 2419.0 | 3017.0 |
| 2024-10-20 | 721.0 | 111.0 | 163.0 | 238.0 | 415.0 | 1209.0 | 1892.0 | 2461.0 | 3085.0 |
| 2024-10-27 | 707.0 | 102.0 | 152.0 | 226.0 | 401.0 | 1200.0 | 1897.0 | 2482.0 | 3126.0 |
| 2024-11-03 | 701.0 | 95.0 | 144.0 | 218.0 | 392.0 | 1204.0 | 1921.0 | 2527.0 | 3198.0 |
| 2024-11-10 | 680.0 | 84.0 | 132.0 | 204.0 | 375.0 | 1181.0 | 1903.0 | 2517.0 | 3200.0 |
| 2024-11-17 | 685.0 | 81.0 | 129.0 | 200.0 | 373.0 | 1201.0 | 1951.0 | 2593.0 | 3310.0 |
| 2024-11-24 | 735.0 | 87.0 | 138.0 | 214.0 | 399.0 | 1297.0 | 2119.0 | 2827.0 | 3623.0 |
| 2024-12-01 | 776.0 | 92.0 | 145.0 | 224.0 | 419.0 | 1377.0 | 2264.0 | 3033.0 | 3900.0 |
| 2024-12-08 | 816.0 | 96.0 | 151.0 | 234.0 | 439.0 | 1458.0 | 2413.0 | 3245.0 | 4186.0 |
| 2024-12-15 | 776.0 | 83.0 | 135.0 | 215.0 | 411.0 | 1402.0 | 2339.0 | 3160.0 | 4093.0 |
| 2024-12-22 | 833.0 | 91.0 | 146.0 | 230.0 | 440.0 | 1511.0 | 2534.0 | 3436.0 | 4464.0 |
| 2024-12-29 | 804.0 | 81.0 | 134.0 | 216.0 | 420.0 | 1473.0 | 2489.0 | 3389.0 | 4419.0 |
| 2025-01-05 | 935.0 | 103.0 | 164.0 | 257.0 | 491.0 | 1714.0 | 2905.0 | 3964.0 | 5181.0 |
| 2025-01-12 | 997.0 | 111.0 | 175.0 | 273.0 | 522.0 | 1835.0 | 3126.0 | 4279.0 | 5609.0 |
| 2025-01-19 | 1012.0 | 110.0 | 174.0 | 273.0 | 526.0 | 1874.0 | 3210.0 | 4409.0 | 5797.0 |
| 2025-01-26 | 1019.0 | 107.0 | 171.0 | 271.0 | 526.0 | 1899.0 | 3271.0 | 4509.0 | 5945.0 |
| 2025-02-02 | 1073.0 | 113.0 | 180.0 | 285.0 | 552.0 | 2010.0 | 3478.0 | 4807.0 | 6355.0 |
| 2025-02-09 | 1106.0 | 115.0 | 184.0 | 291.0 | 567.0 | 2082.0 | 3620.0 | 5020.0 | 6653.0 |
| 2025-02-16 | 1117.0 | 114.0 | 183.0 | 290.0 | 569.0 | 2115.0 | 3697.0 | 5141.0 | 6832.0 |
| 2025-02-23 | 1143.0 | 115.0 | 185.0 | 294.0 | 579.0 | 2174.0 | 3817.0 | 5324.0 | 7093.0 |
| 2025-03-02 | 1184.0 | 118.0 | 190.0 | 303.0 | 598.0 | 2263.0 | 3990.0 | 5581.0 | 7453.0 |
| 2025-03-09 | 1215.0 | 120.0 | 193.0 | 309.0 | 611.0 | 2332.0 | 4131.0 | 5792.0 | 7753.0 |
| 2025-03-16 | 1159.0 | 108.0 | 177.0 | 287.0 | 577.0 | 2241.0 | 3991.0 | 5613.0 | 7533.0 |
| 2025-03-23 | 1153.0 | 104.0 | 173.0 | 282.0 | 570.0 | 2241.0 | 4009.0 | 5655.0 | 7607.0 |
| 2025-03-30 | 1172.0 | 104.0 | 174.0 | 284.0 | 577.0 | 2288.0 | 4111.0 | 5812.0 | 7836.0 |
| 2025-04-06 | 1138.0 | 96.0 | 163.0 | 271.0 | 556.0 | 2236.0 | 4036.0 | 5722.0 | 7732.0 |
| 2025-04-13 | 1127.0 | 91.0 | 158.0 | 264.0 | 547.0 | 2226.0 | 4035.0 | 5734.0 | 7765.0 |
| 2025-04-20 | 1060.0 | 79.0 | 141.0 | 241.0 | 509.0 | 2108.0 | 3841.0 | 5475.0 | 7431.0 |
| 2025-04-27 | 1021.0 | 71.0 | 131.0 | 227.0 | 487.0 | 2044.0 | 3742.0 | 5348.0 | 7274.0 |
| 2025-05-04 | 955.0 | 58.0 | 115.0 | 205.0 | 449.0 | 1925.0 | 3542.0 | 5076.0 | 6920.0 |
| 2025-05-11 | 888.0 | 47.0 | 99.0 | 184.0 | 412.0 | 1804.0 | 3338.0 | 4796.0 | 6553.0 |
| 2025-05-18 | 824.0 | 36.0 | 85.0 | 163.0 | 377.0 | 1689.0 | 3141.0 | 4526.0 | 6198.0 |
| 2025-05-25 | 818.0 | 33.0 | 82.0 | 160.0 | 373.0 | 1684.0 | 3144.0 | 4540.0 | 6228.0 |
| 2025-06-01 | 796.0 | 29.0 | 76.0 | 152.0 | 359.0 | 1647.0 | 3088.0 | 4469.0 | 6143.0 |
| 2025-06-08 | 759.0 | 22.0 | 67.0 | 140.0 | 339.0 | 1581.0 | 2977.0 | 4318.0 | 5947.0 |
| 2025-06-15 | 711.0 | 14.0 | 56.0 | 125.0 | 313.0 | 1492.0 | 2825.0 | 4108.0 | 5669.0 |
| 2025-06-22 | 613.0 | 0.0 | 36.0 | 96.0 | 262.0 | 1307.0 | 2494.0 | 3640.0 | 5037.0 |
| 2025-06-29 | 619.0 | 0.0 | 36.0 | 96.0 | 263.0 | 1324.0 | 2533.0 | 3705.0 | 5135.0 |
| 2025-07-06 | 567.0 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 81.0 | 236.0 | 1227.0 | 2362.0 | 3464.0 | 4812.0 |
| 2025-07-13 | 495.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 60.0 | 198.0 | 1087.0 | 2111.0 | 3107.0 | 4327.0 |
| 2025-07-20 | 480.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 55.0 | 190.0 | 1062.0 | 2069.0 | 3053.0 | 4260.0 |
| 2025-07-27 | 465.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 50.0 | 181.0 | 1035.0 | 2026.0 | 2995.0 | 4188.0 |
| 2025-08-03 | 438.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 42.0 | 167.0 | 984.0 | 1937.0 | 2871.0 | 4022.0 |
| 2025-08-10 | 429.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 39.0 | 162.0 | 970.0 | 1917.0 | 2847.0 | 3995.0 |
| 2025-08-17 | 397.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 30.0 | 145.0 | 909.0 | 1807.0 | 2691.0 | 3784.0 |
| 2025-08-24 | 351.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 122.0 | 819.0 | 1641.0 | 2452.0 | 3457.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 307.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 99.0 | 730.0 | 1477.0 | 2217.0 | 3133.0 |
| 2025-09-07 | 308.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 99.0 | 734.0 | 1490.0 | 2238.0 | 3167.0 |
| 2025-09-14 | 306.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 98.0 | 733.0 | 1491.0 | 2244.0 | 3180.0 |
| 2025-09-21 | 278.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 83.0 | 678.0 | 1389.0 | 2097.0 | 2978.0 |
| 2025-09-28 | 273.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 81.0 | 670.0 | 1379.0 | 2085.0 | 2965.0 |
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