Prediction 3585
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Minas Gerais |
Description:
Validation test 3 for UF=MG (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-06 | 1233.0 | 263.0 | 348.0 | 470.0 | 752.0 | 1986.0 | 3021.0 | 3872.0 | 4796.0 |
| 2024-10-13 | 1405.0 | 296.0 | 391.0 | 529.0 | 851.0 | 2282.0 | 3501.0 | 4512.0 | 5616.0 |
| 2024-10-20 | 1439.0 | 292.0 | 388.0 | 529.0 | 861.0 | 2363.0 | 3662.0 | 4747.0 | 5939.0 |
| 2024-10-27 | 1434.0 | 279.0 | 375.0 | 515.0 | 848.0 | 2383.0 | 3729.0 | 4861.0 | 6112.0 |
| 2024-11-03 | 1650.0 | 319.0 | 428.0 | 588.0 | 970.0 | 2760.0 | 4352.0 | 5701.0 | 7198.0 |
| 2024-11-10 | 1672.0 | 313.0 | 422.0 | 583.0 | 973.0 | 2825.0 | 4493.0 | 5917.0 | 7505.0 |
| 2024-11-17 | 2083.0 | 395.0 | 528.0 | 727.0 | 1210.0 | 3538.0 | 5661.0 | 7486.0 | 9530.0 |
| 2024-11-24 | 2134.0 | 393.0 | 529.0 | 732.0 | 1228.0 | 3657.0 | 5899.0 | 7838.0 | 10020.0 |
| 2024-12-01 | 2416.0 | 441.0 | 593.0 | 821.0 | 1383.0 | 4168.0 | 6768.0 | 9031.0 | 11589.0 |
| 2024-12-08 | 2592.0 | 465.0 | 627.0 | 870.0 | 1473.0 | 4506.0 | 7368.0 | 9874.0 | 12718.0 |
| 2024-12-15 | 2288.0 | 390.0 | 532.0 | 747.0 | 1284.0 | 4019.0 | 6627.0 | 8923.0 | 11540.0 |
| 2024-12-22 | 2339.0 | 389.0 | 533.0 | 753.0 | 1303.0 | 4140.0 | 6874.0 | 9294.0 | 12064.0 |
| 2024-12-29 | 5387.0 | 976.0 | 1299.0 | 1792.0 | 3033.0 | 9512.0 | 15819.0 | 21430.0 | 27875.0 |
| 2025-01-05 | 6833.0 | 1231.0 | 1636.0 | 2257.0 | 3829.0 | 12133.0 | 20294.0 | 27591.0 | 36004.0 |
| 2025-01-12 | 8493.0 | 1517.0 | 2015.0 | 2782.0 | 4735.0 | 15169.0 | 25517.0 | 34815.0 | 45573.0 |
| 2025-01-19 | 9792.0 | 1724.0 | 2294.0 | 3175.0 | 5429.0 | 17598.0 | 29775.0 | 40770.0 | 53533.0 |
| 2025-01-26 | 11755.0 | 2045.0 | 2723.0 | 3776.0 | 6482.0 | 21251.0 | 36158.0 | 49678.0 | 65426.0 |
| 2025-02-02 | 13252.0 | 2271.0 | 3031.0 | 4213.0 | 7266.0 | 24103.0 | 41238.0 | 56849.0 | 75091.0 |
| 2025-02-09 | 14795.0 | 2498.0 | 3340.0 | 4655.0 | 8066.0 | 27067.0 | 46560.0 | 64396.0 | 85302.0 |
| 2025-02-16 | 16212.0 | 2696.0 | 3612.0 | 5048.0 | 8790.0 | 29830.0 | 51587.0 | 71576.0 | 95076.0 |
| 2025-02-23 | 18669.0 | 3063.0 | 4111.0 | 5758.0 | 10069.0 | 34541.0 | 60036.0 | 83555.0 | 111287.0 |
| 2025-03-02 | 21068.0 | 3409.0 | 4584.0 | 6436.0 | 11305.0 | 39191.0 | 68457.0 | 95560.0 | 127608.0 |
| 2025-03-09 | 23016.0 | 3671.0 | 4947.0 | 6963.0 | 12286.0 | 43042.0 | 75549.0 | 105769.0 | 141600.0 |
| 2025-03-16 | 23802.0 | 3739.0 | 5052.0 | 7130.0 | 12639.0 | 44748.0 | 78918.0 | 110801.0 | 148706.0 |
| 2025-03-23 | 23152.0 | 3579.0 | 4849.0 | 6865.0 | 12228.0 | 43754.0 | 77527.0 | 109153.0 | 146849.0 |
| 2025-03-30 | 25023.0 | 3818.0 | 5182.0 | 7354.0 | 13154.0 | 47521.0 | 84578.0 | 119400.0 | 161009.0 |
| 2025-04-06 | 25763.0 | 3876.0 | 5273.0 | 7502.0 | 13478.0 | 49164.0 | 87884.0 | 124392.0 | 168123.0 |
| 2025-04-13 | 23661.0 | 3503.0 | 4779.0 | 6822.0 | 12315.0 | 45375.0 | 81465.0 | 115604.0 | 156595.0 |
| 2025-04-20 | 21368.0 | 3112.0 | 4259.0 | 6099.0 | 11065.0 | 41176.0 | 74241.0 | 105620.0 | 143382.0 |
| 2025-04-27 | 19705.0 | 2825.0 | 3878.0 | 5570.0 | 10154.0 | 38150.0 | 69069.0 | 98502.0 | 134002.0 |
| 2025-05-04 | 17128.0 | 2412.0 | 3324.0 | 4792.0 | 8781.0 | 33318.0 | 60569.0 | 86589.0 | 118040.0 |
| 2025-05-11 | 13568.0 | 1869.0 | 2588.0 | 3750.0 | 6916.0 | 26526.0 | 48423.0 | 69391.0 | 94791.0 |
| 2025-05-18 | 10047.0 | 1344.0 | 1876.0 | 2736.0 | 5088.0 | 19749.0 | 36208.0 | 52013.0 | 71198.0 |
| 2025-05-25 | 7496.0 | 969.0 | 1365.0 | 2007.0 | 3768.0 | 14817.0 | 27286.0 | 39292.0 | 53895.0 |
| 2025-06-01 | 5868.0 | 730.0 | 1040.0 | 1543.0 | 2927.0 | 11667.0 | 21578.0 | 31148.0 | 42810.0 |
| 2025-06-08 | 4518.0 | 535.0 | 774.0 | 1162.0 | 2233.0 | 9040.0 | 16796.0 | 24305.0 | 33473.0 |
| 2025-06-15 | 3364.0 | 371.0 | 550.0 | 840.0 | 1644.0 | 6781.0 | 12663.0 | 18371.0 | 25354.0 |
| 2025-06-22 | 2569.0 | 257.0 | 394.0 | 617.0 | 1236.0 | 5231.0 | 9837.0 | 14325.0 | 19829.0 |
| 2025-06-29 | 2005.0 | 177.0 | 284.0 | 459.0 | 948.0 | 4129.0 | 7825.0 | 11440.0 | 15887.0 |
| 2025-07-06 | 1617.0 | 122.0 | 209.0 | 351.0 | 750.0 | 3369.0 | 6434.0 | 9444.0 | 13156.0 |
| 2025-07-13 | 1334.0 | 83.0 | 155.0 | 273.0 | 606.0 | 2814.0 | 5415.0 | 7979.0 | 11151.0 |
| 2025-07-20 | 1138.0 | 55.0 | 117.0 | 219.0 | 506.0 | 2429.0 | 4710.0 | 6966.0 | 9765.0 |
| 2025-07-27 | 1016.0 | 38.0 | 93.0 | 185.0 | 444.0 | 2191.0 | 4277.0 | 6349.0 | 8924.0 |
| 2025-08-03 | 943.0 | 27.0 | 78.0 | 163.0 | 406.0 | 2052.0 | 4030.0 | 6001.0 | 8458.0 |
| 2025-08-10 | 883.0 | 18.0 | 66.0 | 146.0 | 374.0 | 1938.0 | 3829.0 | 5720.0 | 8082.0 |
| 2025-08-17 | 833.0 | 11.0 | 56.0 | 131.0 | 348.0 | 1843.0 | 3662.0 | 5486.0 | 7771.0 |
| 2025-08-24 | 776.0 | 2.0 | 45.0 | 115.0 | 318.0 | 1733.0 | 3462.0 | 5203.0 | 7388.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 782.0 | 2.0 | 44.0 | 115.0 | 320.0 | 1755.0 | 3521.0 | 5303.0 | 7545.0 |
| 2025-09-07 | 881.0 | 12.0 | 59.0 | 137.0 | 365.0 | 1972.0 | 3961.0 | 5974.0 | 8512.0 |
| 2025-09-14 | 851.0 | 7.0 | 52.0 | 128.0 | 349.0 | 1917.0 | 3868.0 | 5848.0 | 8351.0 |
| 2025-09-21 | 835.0 | 4.0 | 48.0 | 122.0 | 339.0 | 1891.0 | 3830.0 | 5805.0 | 8306.0 |
| 2025-09-28 | 872.0 | 7.0 | 52.0 | 129.0 | 355.0 | 1977.0 | 4017.0 | 6099.0 | 8740.0 |
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