Prediction 3586
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Mato Grosso do Sul |
Description:
Validation test 3 for UF=MS (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-06 | 59.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 139.0 | 245.0 | 330.0 | 421.0 |
| 2024-10-13 | 75.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 165.0 | 287.0 | 384.0 | 489.0 |
| 2024-10-20 | 78.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 173.0 | 301.0 | 405.0 | 516.0 |
| 2024-10-27 | 83.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 183.0 | 319.0 | 430.0 | 549.0 |
| 2024-11-03 | 106.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 32.0 | 220.0 | 377.0 | 505.0 | 644.0 |
| 2024-11-10 | 123.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 42.0 | 250.0 | 425.0 | 569.0 | 725.0 |
| 2024-11-17 | 156.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 62.0 | 305.0 | 511.0 | 681.0 | 867.0 |
| 2024-11-24 | 148.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 56.0 | 294.0 | 498.0 | 668.0 | 853.0 |
| 2024-12-01 | 166.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 67.0 | 326.0 | 550.0 | 737.0 | 942.0 |
| 2024-12-08 | 160.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 62.0 | 319.0 | 542.0 | 730.0 | 936.0 |
| 2024-12-15 | 122.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 37.0 | 259.0 | 453.0 | 617.0 | 798.0 |
| 2024-12-22 | 121.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 36.0 | 259.0 | 456.0 | 623.0 | 807.0 |
| 2024-12-29 | 257.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 41.0 | 119.0 | 484.0 | 808.0 | 1083.0 | 1388.0 |
| 2025-01-05 | 338.0 | 4.0 | 31.0 | 71.0 | 167.0 | 619.0 | 1023.0 | 1367.0 | 1749.0 |
| 2025-01-12 | 412.0 | 20.0 | 51.0 | 98.0 | 211.0 | 745.0 | 1226.0 | 1636.0 | 2093.0 |
| 2025-01-19 | 497.0 | 38.0 | 74.0 | 129.0 | 261.0 | 889.0 | 1457.0 | 1944.0 | 2487.0 |
| 2025-01-26 | 565.0 | 52.0 | 92.0 | 153.0 | 300.0 | 1006.0 | 1648.0 | 2199.0 | 2816.0 |
| 2025-02-02 | 635.0 | 66.0 | 111.0 | 178.0 | 340.0 | 1127.0 | 1847.0 | 2465.0 | 3160.0 |
| 2025-02-09 | 700.0 | 78.0 | 127.0 | 200.0 | 377.0 | 1240.0 | 2033.0 | 2716.0 | 3484.0 |
| 2025-02-16 | 716.0 | 80.0 | 130.0 | 204.0 | 385.0 | 1272.0 | 2091.0 | 2799.0 | 3596.0 |
| 2025-02-23 | 809.0 | 99.0 | 154.0 | 236.0 | 438.0 | 1433.0 | 2355.0 | 3154.0 | 4055.0 |
| 2025-03-02 | 875.0 | 111.0 | 170.0 | 258.0 | 476.0 | 1550.0 | 2550.0 | 3419.0 | 4401.0 |
| 2025-03-09 | 923.0 | 120.0 | 181.0 | 274.0 | 502.0 | 1637.0 | 2697.0 | 3621.0 | 4665.0 |
| 2025-03-16 | 959.0 | 125.0 | 189.0 | 285.0 | 522.0 | 1704.0 | 2814.0 | 3781.0 | 4878.0 |
| 2025-03-23 | 948.0 | 121.0 | 184.0 | 279.0 | 513.0 | 1690.0 | 2797.0 | 3766.0 | 4864.0 |
| 2025-03-30 | 949.0 | 120.0 | 182.0 | 277.0 | 512.0 | 1696.0 | 2815.0 | 3795.0 | 4908.0 |
| 2025-04-06 | 948.0 | 118.0 | 180.0 | 275.0 | 510.0 | 1700.0 | 2828.0 | 3818.0 | 4944.0 |
| 2025-04-13 | 876.0 | 101.0 | 160.0 | 248.0 | 467.0 | 1581.0 | 2640.0 | 3571.0 | 4632.0 |
| 2025-04-20 | 785.0 | 81.0 | 134.0 | 214.0 | 413.0 | 1427.0 | 2395.0 | 3248.0 | 4219.0 |
| 2025-04-27 | 781.0 | 79.0 | 132.0 | 211.0 | 409.0 | 1424.0 | 2394.0 | 3250.0 | 4227.0 |
| 2025-05-04 | 684.0 | 59.0 | 105.0 | 176.0 | 352.0 | 1258.0 | 2128.0 | 2896.0 | 3773.0 |
| 2025-05-11 | 525.0 | 26.0 | 63.0 | 119.0 | 260.0 | 985.0 | 1684.0 | 2301.0 | 3008.0 |
| 2025-05-18 | 384.0 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 69.0 | 178.0 | 742.0 | 1286.0 | 1768.0 | 2319.0 |
| 2025-05-25 | 319.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 46.0 | 140.0 | 631.0 | 1105.0 | 1526.0 | 2008.0 |
| 2025-06-01 | 256.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 23.0 | 104.0 | 522.0 | 928.0 | 1288.0 | 1701.0 |
| 2025-06-08 | 232.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 90.0 | 480.0 | 860.0 | 1198.0 | 1586.0 |
| 2025-06-15 | 189.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 65.0 | 407.0 | 740.0 | 1036.0 | 1377.0 |
| 2025-06-22 | 172.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 55.0 | 378.0 | 694.0 | 976.0 | 1301.0 |
| 2025-06-29 | 147.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 40.0 | 336.0 | 627.0 | 886.0 | 1185.0 |
| 2025-07-06 | 126.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 28.0 | 300.0 | 568.0 | 808.0 | 1085.0 |
| 2025-07-13 | 110.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 272.0 | 522.0 | 747.0 | 1007.0 |
| 2025-07-20 | 93.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 243.0 | 475.0 | 684.0 | 927.0 |
| 2025-07-27 | 88.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 235.0 | 464.0 | 670.0 | 909.0 |
| 2025-08-03 | 77.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 216.0 | 433.0 | 629.0 | 857.0 |
| 2025-08-10 | 72.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 207.0 | 420.0 | 611.0 | 834.0 |
| 2025-08-17 | 61.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 188.0 | 388.0 | 569.0 | 780.0 |
| 2025-08-24 | 69.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 203.0 | 415.0 | 606.0 | 829.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 55.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 179.0 | 374.0 | 551.0 | 757.0 |
| 2025-09-07 | 69.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 206.0 | 421.0 | 617.0 | 845.0 |
| 2025-09-14 | 67.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 202.0 | 415.0 | 609.0 | 836.0 |
| 2025-09-21 | 68.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 204.0 | 420.0 | 616.0 | 845.0 |
| 2025-09-28 | 72.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 213.0 | 436.0 | 639.0 | 877.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
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