Prediction 3587
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Mato Grosso |
Description:
Validation test 3 for UF=MT (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-06 | 203.0 | 28.0 | 47.0 | 72.0 | 125.0 | 307.0 | 432.0 | 524.0 | 617.0 |
| 2024-10-13 | 226.0 | 35.0 | 56.0 | 83.0 | 141.0 | 341.0 | 478.0 | 581.0 | 684.0 |
| 2024-10-20 | 228.0 | 34.0 | 55.0 | 83.0 | 141.0 | 346.0 | 489.0 | 595.0 | 702.0 |
| 2024-10-27 | 234.0 | 34.0 | 56.0 | 84.0 | 144.0 | 357.0 | 506.0 | 618.0 | 731.0 |
| 2024-11-03 | 290.0 | 55.0 | 79.0 | 113.0 | 184.0 | 436.0 | 614.0 | 748.0 | 884.0 |
| 2024-11-10 | 297.0 | 55.0 | 80.0 | 115.0 | 187.0 | 448.0 | 633.0 | 773.0 | 915.0 |
| 2024-11-17 | 350.0 | 74.0 | 103.0 | 142.0 | 225.0 | 525.0 | 739.0 | 901.0 | 1066.0 |
| 2024-11-24 | 382.0 | 84.0 | 115.0 | 156.0 | 246.0 | 571.0 | 804.0 | 981.0 | 1163.0 |
| 2024-12-01 | 422.0 | 97.0 | 130.0 | 176.0 | 273.0 | 630.0 | 888.0 | 1084.0 | 1285.0 |
| 2024-12-08 | 402.0 | 87.0 | 119.0 | 163.0 | 258.0 | 605.0 | 857.0 | 1049.0 | 1246.0 |
| 2024-12-15 | 296.0 | 46.0 | 71.0 | 106.0 | 181.0 | 457.0 | 659.0 | 813.0 | 971.0 |
| 2024-12-22 | 273.0 | 36.0 | 60.0 | 93.0 | 164.0 | 427.0 | 620.0 | 768.0 | 920.0 |
| 2024-12-29 | 672.0 | 180.0 | 229.0 | 298.0 | 445.0 | 995.0 | 1400.0 | 1711.0 | 2032.0 |
| 2025-01-05 | 745.0 | 203.0 | 258.0 | 333.0 | 494.0 | 1102.0 | 1550.0 | 1895.0 | 2253.0 |
| 2025-01-12 | 856.0 | 240.0 | 302.0 | 387.0 | 570.0 | 1263.0 | 1777.0 | 2173.0 | 2583.0 |
| 2025-01-19 | 931.0 | 264.0 | 331.0 | 422.0 | 621.0 | 1374.0 | 1935.0 | 2368.0 | 2817.0 |
| 2025-01-26 | 1037.0 | 299.0 | 372.0 | 473.0 | 693.0 | 1531.0 | 2156.0 | 2640.0 | 3143.0 |
| 2025-02-02 | 1110.0 | 321.0 | 399.0 | 507.0 | 742.0 | 1639.0 | 2311.0 | 2832.0 | 3374.0 |
| 2025-02-09 | 1143.0 | 330.0 | 410.0 | 521.0 | 763.0 | 1691.0 | 2388.0 | 2929.0 | 3493.0 |
| 2025-02-16 | 1090.0 | 309.0 | 386.0 | 492.0 | 724.0 | 1618.0 | 2292.0 | 2816.0 | 3362.0 |
| 2025-02-23 | 1126.0 | 319.0 | 398.0 | 508.0 | 747.0 | 1675.0 | 2375.0 | 2921.0 | 3490.0 |
| 2025-03-02 | 1084.0 | 302.0 | 378.0 | 484.0 | 716.0 | 1616.0 | 2298.0 | 2829.0 | 3385.0 |
| 2025-03-09 | 1106.0 | 307.0 | 385.0 | 493.0 | 730.0 | 1652.0 | 2351.0 | 2898.0 | 3469.0 |
| 2025-03-16 | 1110.0 | 306.0 | 384.0 | 493.0 | 731.0 | 1661.0 | 2368.0 | 2921.0 | 3500.0 |
| 2025-03-23 | 1005.0 | 269.0 | 340.0 | 440.0 | 658.0 | 1510.0 | 2161.0 | 2670.0 | 3204.0 |
| 2025-03-30 | 1089.0 | 296.0 | 372.0 | 479.0 | 714.0 | 1637.0 | 2342.0 | 2895.0 | 3475.0 |
| 2025-04-06 | 1109.0 | 300.0 | 378.0 | 487.0 | 726.0 | 1668.0 | 2389.0 | 2955.0 | 3549.0 |
| 2025-04-13 | 1072.0 | 287.0 | 362.0 | 467.0 | 700.0 | 1617.0 | 2321.0 | 2874.0 | 3454.0 |
| 2025-04-20 | 1013.0 | 266.0 | 337.0 | 438.0 | 659.0 | 1533.0 | 2206.0 | 2734.0 | 3290.0 |
| 2025-04-27 | 1031.0 | 270.0 | 343.0 | 445.0 | 670.0 | 1562.0 | 2249.0 | 2790.0 | 3358.0 |
| 2025-05-04 | 963.0 | 246.0 | 315.0 | 411.0 | 623.0 | 1463.0 | 2112.0 | 2623.0 | 3161.0 |
| 2025-05-11 | 851.0 | 209.0 | 270.0 | 356.0 | 546.0 | 1300.0 | 1884.0 | 2344.0 | 2828.0 |
| 2025-05-18 | 725.0 | 167.0 | 220.0 | 294.0 | 459.0 | 1116.0 | 1624.0 | 2025.0 | 2448.0 |
| 2025-05-25 | 582.0 | 120.0 | 164.0 | 225.0 | 362.0 | 906.0 | 1328.0 | 1661.0 | 2013.0 |
| 2025-06-01 | 538.0 | 105.0 | 146.0 | 204.0 | 332.0 | 842.0 | 1239.0 | 1552.0 | 1883.0 |
| 2025-06-08 | 462.0 | 80.0 | 116.0 | 167.0 | 280.0 | 731.0 | 1082.0 | 1359.0 | 1652.0 |
| 2025-06-15 | 422.0 | 67.0 | 100.0 | 148.0 | 252.0 | 672.0 | 1000.0 | 1258.0 | 1532.0 |
| 2025-06-22 | 369.0 | 49.0 | 79.0 | 121.0 | 216.0 | 596.0 | 893.0 | 1128.0 | 1377.0 |
| 2025-06-29 | 322.0 | 33.0 | 60.0 | 98.0 | 184.0 | 528.0 | 799.0 | 1013.0 | 1240.0 |
| 2025-07-06 | 266.0 | 15.0 | 38.0 | 71.0 | 145.0 | 446.0 | 682.0 | 870.0 | 1069.0 |
| 2025-07-13 | 236.0 | 5.0 | 26.0 | 57.0 | 125.0 | 403.0 | 621.0 | 796.0 | 981.0 |
| 2025-07-20 | 207.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 42.0 | 105.0 | 359.0 | 560.0 | 720.0 | 891.0 |
| 2025-07-27 | 200.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 39.0 | 100.0 | 351.0 | 549.0 | 708.0 | 876.0 |
| 2025-08-03 | 177.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 28.0 | 84.0 | 316.0 | 500.0 | 647.0 | 803.0 |
| 2025-08-10 | 177.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 27.0 | 84.0 | 317.0 | 502.0 | 650.0 | 808.0 |
| 2025-08-17 | 159.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 72.0 | 290.0 | 465.0 | 605.0 | 754.0 |
| 2025-08-24 | 137.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 57.0 | 258.0 | 418.0 | 547.0 | 685.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 140.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 59.0 | 263.0 | 427.0 | 558.0 | 698.0 |
| 2025-09-07 | 142.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 60.0 | 266.0 | 432.0 | 566.0 | 708.0 |
| 2025-09-14 | 137.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 56.0 | 259.0 | 422.0 | 553.0 | 694.0 |
| 2025-09-21 | 137.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 56.0 | 260.0 | 425.0 | 557.0 | 699.0 |
| 2025-09-28 | 142.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 59.0 | 267.0 | 436.0 | 571.0 | 716.0 |
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