Prediction 3588
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Pará |
Description:
Validation test 3 for UF=PA (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-06 | 155.0 | 24.0 | 39.0 | 59.0 | 99.0 | 226.0 | 308.0 | 367.0 | 424.0 |
| 2024-10-13 | 139.0 | 15.0 | 29.0 | 48.0 | 85.0 | 207.0 | 286.0 | 342.0 | 397.0 |
| 2024-10-20 | 129.0 | 9.0 | 23.0 | 41.0 | 77.0 | 196.0 | 272.0 | 328.0 | 382.0 |
| 2024-10-27 | 142.0 | 14.0 | 29.0 | 48.0 | 87.0 | 214.0 | 297.0 | 356.0 | 415.0 |
| 2024-11-03 | 154.0 | 18.0 | 34.0 | 54.0 | 95.0 | 230.0 | 318.0 | 382.0 | 445.0 |
| 2024-11-10 | 165.0 | 23.0 | 39.0 | 60.0 | 104.0 | 246.0 | 339.0 | 407.0 | 474.0 |
| 2024-11-17 | 180.0 | 29.0 | 46.0 | 68.0 | 114.0 | 266.0 | 366.0 | 439.0 | 510.0 |
| 2024-11-24 | 186.0 | 31.0 | 48.0 | 71.0 | 119.0 | 275.0 | 379.0 | 454.0 | 528.0 |
| 2024-12-01 | 198.0 | 35.0 | 53.0 | 78.0 | 127.0 | 292.0 | 400.0 | 479.0 | 558.0 |
| 2024-12-08 | 183.0 | 27.0 | 45.0 | 68.0 | 115.0 | 272.0 | 377.0 | 452.0 | 528.0 |
| 2024-12-15 | 137.0 | 6.0 | 21.0 | 40.0 | 80.0 | 212.0 | 300.0 | 364.0 | 428.0 |
| 2024-12-22 | 129.0 | 2.0 | 16.0 | 35.0 | 73.0 | 202.0 | 288.0 | 351.0 | 414.0 |
| 2024-12-29 | 235.0 | 49.0 | 69.0 | 97.0 | 153.0 | 343.0 | 470.0 | 562.0 | 655.0 |
| 2025-01-05 | 280.0 | 68.0 | 91.0 | 123.0 | 187.0 | 403.0 | 548.0 | 654.0 | 760.0 |
| 2025-01-12 | 334.0 | 91.0 | 118.0 | 154.0 | 227.0 | 476.0 | 643.0 | 765.0 | 887.0 |
| 2025-01-19 | 374.0 | 108.0 | 137.0 | 177.0 | 257.0 | 530.0 | 713.0 | 847.0 | 981.0 |
| 2025-01-26 | 423.0 | 128.0 | 161.0 | 204.0 | 293.0 | 595.0 | 798.0 | 947.0 | 1096.0 |
| 2025-02-02 | 394.0 | 115.0 | 146.0 | 187.0 | 271.0 | 558.0 | 751.0 | 893.0 | 1035.0 |
| 2025-02-09 | 434.0 | 132.0 | 165.0 | 210.0 | 301.0 | 612.0 | 822.0 | 976.0 | 1130.0 |
| 2025-02-16 | 391.0 | 113.0 | 143.0 | 184.0 | 268.0 | 555.0 | 749.0 | 891.0 | 1034.0 |
| 2025-02-23 | 411.0 | 121.0 | 153.0 | 195.0 | 283.0 | 582.0 | 785.0 | 934.0 | 1083.0 |
| 2025-03-02 | 424.0 | 126.0 | 158.0 | 202.0 | 292.0 | 599.0 | 808.0 | 961.0 | 1115.0 |
| 2025-03-09 | 432.0 | 129.0 | 162.0 | 206.0 | 298.0 | 611.0 | 824.0 | 980.0 | 1137.0 |
| 2025-03-16 | 374.0 | 103.0 | 133.0 | 172.0 | 254.0 | 534.0 | 724.0 | 863.0 | 1004.0 |
| 2025-03-23 | 317.0 | 79.0 | 105.0 | 140.0 | 212.0 | 459.0 | 626.0 | 750.0 | 874.0 |
| 2025-03-30 | 324.0 | 81.0 | 108.0 | 143.0 | 217.0 | 468.0 | 639.0 | 765.0 | 892.0 |
| 2025-04-06 | 300.0 | 71.0 | 96.0 | 129.0 | 198.0 | 436.0 | 598.0 | 717.0 | 837.0 |
| 2025-04-13 | 259.0 | 53.0 | 75.0 | 105.0 | 167.0 | 381.0 | 526.0 | 633.0 | 741.0 |
| 2025-04-20 | 227.0 | 39.0 | 59.0 | 87.0 | 143.0 | 338.0 | 471.0 | 569.0 | 667.0 |
| 2025-04-27 | 239.0 | 44.0 | 65.0 | 94.0 | 152.0 | 355.0 | 493.0 | 594.0 | 697.0 |
| 2025-05-04 | 222.0 | 37.0 | 57.0 | 84.0 | 140.0 | 332.0 | 463.0 | 560.0 | 658.0 |
| 2025-05-11 | 187.0 | 22.0 | 40.0 | 64.0 | 114.0 | 286.0 | 404.0 | 490.0 | 578.0 |
| 2025-05-18 | 151.0 | 6.0 | 22.0 | 43.0 | 87.0 | 237.0 | 340.0 | 416.0 | 492.0 |
| 2025-05-25 | 135.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 34.0 | 75.0 | 216.0 | 313.0 | 384.0 | 456.0 |
| 2025-06-01 | 119.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 25.0 | 63.0 | 195.0 | 285.0 | 352.0 | 419.0 |
| 2025-06-08 | 117.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 24.0 | 61.0 | 192.0 | 281.0 | 347.0 | 414.0 |
| 2025-06-15 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 49.0 | 170.0 | 252.0 | 313.0 | 375.0 |
| 2025-06-22 | 99.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 48.0 | 169.0 | 251.0 | 312.0 | 373.0 |
| 2025-06-29 | 87.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 39.0 | 153.0 | 230.0 | 288.0 | 345.0 |
| 2025-07-06 | 79.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 33.0 | 142.0 | 216.0 | 271.0 | 327.0 |
| 2025-07-13 | 81.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 34.0 | 143.0 | 219.0 | 274.0 | 330.0 |
| 2025-07-20 | 82.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 35.0 | 146.0 | 222.0 | 278.0 | 335.0 |
| 2025-07-27 | 87.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 39.0 | 152.0 | 230.0 | 288.0 | 346.0 |
| 2025-08-03 | 92.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 42.0 | 159.0 | 239.0 | 298.0 | 358.0 |
| 2025-08-10 | 90.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 41.0 | 157.0 | 236.0 | 295.0 | 355.0 |
| 2025-08-17 | 87.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 39.0 | 153.0 | 231.0 | 289.0 | 348.0 |
| 2025-08-24 | 81.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 34.0 | 144.0 | 220.0 | 276.0 | 332.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 76.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 30.0 | 138.0 | 211.0 | 266.0 | 321.0 |
| 2025-09-07 | 78.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 31.0 | 140.0 | 214.0 | 270.0 | 325.0 |
| 2025-09-14 | 72.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 28.0 | 133.0 | 205.0 | 259.0 | 313.0 |
| 2025-09-21 | 75.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 30.0 | 137.0 | 210.0 | 265.0 | 320.0 |
| 2025-09-28 | 70.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 26.0 | 130.0 | 201.0 | 254.0 | 308.0 |
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