Prediction 359

Dengue Sprint2425 R Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1
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Modelo Model 1 - Weekly and yearly (iid) components
Autor Marcio Maciel Bastos

Descrição:

This upload represents the epidemic prediction for unseen data from the period of 2024-06-16 to 2025-10-05 in the state MG. The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one is assumed to be iid.


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date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2024-06-16 19263.36 - 19012.50 - - - - 19516.67 -
2024-06-23 16769.58 - 16535.95 - - - - 17005.65 -
2024-06-30 12718.84 - 12516.07 - - - - 12924.03 -
2024-07-07 10085.30 - 9905.22 - - - - 10267.79 -
2024-07-14 7479.27 - 7324.69 - - - - 7636.24 -
2024-07-21 7063.07 - 6912.97 - - - - 7215.56 -
2024-07-28 6086.64 - 5947.54 - - - - 6228.13 -
2024-08-04 6030.90 - 5892.46 - - - - 6171.73 -
2024-08-11 5683.74 - 5549.43 - - - - 5820.43 -
2024-08-18 5962.22 - 5824.58 - - - - 6102.26 -
2024-08-25 5180.48 - 5052.39 - - - - 5310.95 -
2024-09-01 5477.64 - 5345.85 - - - - 5611.81 -
2024-09-08 6148.30 - 6008.49 - - - - 6290.51 -
2024-09-15 6623.94 - 6478.69 - - - - 6771.58 -
2024-09-22 6309.48 - 6167.80 - - - - 6453.55 -
2024-09-29 6779.78 - 6632.79 - - - - 6929.16 -
2024-10-06 6421.12 - 6278.14 - - - - 6566.48 -
2024-10-13 7631.26 - 7475.10 - - - - 7789.84 -
2024-10-20 7350.01 - 7196.83 - - - - 7505.60 -
2024-10-27 7641.78 - 7485.50 - - - - 7800.45 -
2024-11-03 9457.78 - 9283.51 - - - - 9634.46 -
2024-11-10 9820.54 - 9642.88 - - - - 10000.61 -
2024-11-17 12543.96 - 12342.61 - - - - 12747.73 -
2024-11-24 13316.67 - 13109.07 - - - - 13526.69 -
2024-12-01 15412.22 - 15188.49 - - - - 15638.38 -
2024-12-08 16835.89 - 16601.78 - - - - 17072.43 -
2024-12-15 15900.41 - 15673.06 - - - - 16130.18 -
2024-12-22 18262.42 - 18024.91 - - - - 18502.24 -
2024-12-29 3910.59 - 134.23 - - - - 20824.38 -
2025-01-05 5104.18 - 175.20 - - - - 27180.33 -
2025-01-12 6771.34 - 232.42 - - - - 36058.17 -
2025-01-19 8973.24 - 308.00 - - - - 47783.51 -
2025-01-26 10989.98 - 377.23 - - - - 58522.82 -
2025-02-02 13418.61 - 460.59 - - - - 71455.48 -
2025-02-09 15766.44 - 541.18 - - - - 83957.91 -
2025-02-16 17920.86 - 615.13 - - - - 95430.41 -
2025-02-23 19333.75 - 663.62 - - - - 102954.22 -
2025-03-02 20894.17 - 717.18 - - - - 111263.57 -
2025-03-09 20965.94 - 719.65 - - - - 111645.78 -
2025-03-16 21698.89 - 744.81 - - - - 115548.83 -
2025-03-23 18438.22 - 632.88 - - - - 98185.42 -
2025-03-30 20658.36 - 709.09 - - - - 110007.89 -
2025-04-06 20066.92 - 688.79 - - - - 106858.38 -
2025-04-13 17240.36 - 591.77 - - - - 91806.69 -
2025-04-20 15423.44 - 529.40 - - - - 82131.40 -
2025-04-27 14270.56 - 489.83 - - - - 75992.22 -
2025-05-04 12624.52 - 433.33 - - - - 67226.91 -
2025-05-11 10513.46 - 360.87 - - - - 55985.30 -
2025-05-18 7480.40 - 256.76 - - - - 39833.99 -
2025-05-25 4738.57 - 162.65 - - - - 25233.45 -
2025-06-01 4156.85 - 142.68 - - - - 22135.75 -
2025-06-08 3059.37 - 105.01 - - - - 16291.55 -
2025-06-15 2983.13 - 102.39 - - - - 15885.60 -
2025-06-22 2596.94 - 89.13 - - - - 13829.12 -
2025-06-29 1969.64 - 67.60 - - - - 10488.69 -
2025-07-06 1561.81 - 53.60 - - - - 8316.96 -
2025-07-13 1158.24 - 39.75 - - - - 6167.90 -
2025-07-20 1093.79 - 37.54 - - - - 5824.69 -
2025-07-27 942.58 - 32.35 - - - - 5019.48 -
2025-08-03 933.95 - 32.05 - - - - 4973.52 -
2025-08-10 880.18 - 30.21 - - - - 4687.23 -
2025-08-17 923.31 - 31.69 - - - - 4916.88 -
2025-08-24 802.25 - 27.53 - - - - 4272.22 -
2025-08-31 848.27 - 29.11 - - - - 4517.27 -
2025-09-07 952.13 - 32.68 - - - - 5070.33 -
2025-09-14 1025.78 - 35.20 - - - - 5462.56 -
2025-09-21 977.09 - 33.53 - - - - 5203.25 -
2025-09-28 1049.92 - 36.03 - - - - 5591.07 -
2025-10-05 994.37 - 34.13 - - - - 5295.31 -
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