Prediction 3590
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Pernambuco |
Description:
Validation test 3 for UF=PE (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-06 | 321.0 | 49.0 | 76.0 | 114.0 | 195.0 | 502.0 | 729.0 | 905.0 | 1088.0 |
| 2024-10-13 | 329.0 | 49.0 | 76.0 | 115.0 | 198.0 | 518.0 | 758.0 | 944.0 | 1138.0 |
| 2024-10-20 | 332.0 | 47.0 | 75.0 | 113.0 | 198.0 | 527.0 | 777.0 | 971.0 | 1175.0 |
| 2024-10-27 | 328.0 | 42.0 | 70.0 | 108.0 | 193.0 | 525.0 | 779.0 | 978.0 | 1187.0 |
| 2024-11-03 | 353.0 | 48.0 | 77.0 | 118.0 | 208.0 | 566.0 | 842.0 | 1060.0 | 1289.0 |
| 2024-11-10 | 331.0 | 38.0 | 66.0 | 105.0 | 191.0 | 537.0 | 807.0 | 1020.0 | 1245.0 |
| 2024-11-17 | 330.0 | 35.0 | 63.0 | 102.0 | 189.0 | 540.0 | 815.0 | 1034.0 | 1265.0 |
| 2024-11-24 | 332.0 | 34.0 | 61.0 | 101.0 | 188.0 | 546.0 | 829.0 | 1054.0 | 1294.0 |
| 2024-12-01 | 343.0 | 35.0 | 63.0 | 104.0 | 194.0 | 566.0 | 862.0 | 1099.0 | 1351.0 |
| 2024-12-08 | 344.0 | 34.0 | 62.0 | 102.0 | 194.0 | 572.0 | 875.0 | 1118.0 | 1378.0 |
| 2024-12-15 | 280.0 | 13.0 | 37.0 | 72.0 | 150.0 | 477.0 | 741.0 | 954.0 | 1181.0 |
| 2024-12-22 | 219.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 43.0 | 109.0 | 387.0 | 612.0 | 794.0 | 989.0 |
| 2024-12-29 | 313.0 | 19.0 | 46.0 | 83.0 | 169.0 | 533.0 | 830.0 | 1070.0 | 1328.0 |
| 2025-01-05 | 325.0 | 21.0 | 49.0 | 87.0 | 176.0 | 555.0 | 865.0 | 1118.0 | 1389.0 |
| 2025-01-12 | 345.0 | 26.0 | 54.0 | 95.0 | 188.0 | 587.0 | 917.0 | 1186.0 | 1476.0 |
| 2025-01-19 | 376.0 | 33.0 | 63.0 | 107.0 | 207.0 | 638.0 | 996.0 | 1288.0 | 1604.0 |
| 2025-01-26 | 449.0 | 52.0 | 87.0 | 137.0 | 253.0 | 755.0 | 1173.0 | 1516.0 | 1887.0 |
| 2025-02-02 | 502.0 | 65.0 | 103.0 | 158.0 | 286.0 | 841.0 | 1306.0 | 1688.0 | 2102.0 |
| 2025-02-09 | 575.0 | 83.0 | 126.0 | 188.0 | 331.0 | 958.0 | 1486.0 | 1920.0 | 2392.0 |
| 2025-02-16 | 621.0 | 94.0 | 139.0 | 205.0 | 359.0 | 1034.0 | 1604.0 | 2074.0 | 2586.0 |
| 2025-02-23 | 701.0 | 113.0 | 164.0 | 237.0 | 408.0 | 1163.0 | 1803.0 | 2332.0 | 2909.0 |
| 2025-03-02 | 809.0 | 140.0 | 197.0 | 281.0 | 475.0 | 1337.0 | 2071.0 | 2678.0 | 3342.0 |
| 2025-03-09 | 850.0 | 149.0 | 209.0 | 296.0 | 499.0 | 1407.0 | 2181.0 | 2824.0 | 3527.0 |
| 2025-03-16 | 891.0 | 158.0 | 220.0 | 311.0 | 523.0 | 1475.0 | 2291.0 | 2968.0 | 3710.0 |
| 2025-03-23 | 848.0 | 145.0 | 204.0 | 291.0 | 495.0 | 1411.0 | 2198.0 | 2854.0 | 3573.0 |
| 2025-03-30 | 974.0 | 175.0 | 243.0 | 341.0 | 572.0 | 1615.0 | 2515.0 | 3265.0 | 4089.0 |
| 2025-04-06 | 961.0 | 170.0 | 237.0 | 334.0 | 563.0 | 1599.0 | 2495.0 | 3244.0 | 4066.0 |
| 2025-04-13 | 1035.0 | 187.0 | 258.0 | 362.0 | 608.0 | 1721.0 | 2688.0 | 3496.0 | 4385.0 |
| 2025-04-20 | 961.0 | 167.0 | 233.0 | 331.0 | 560.0 | 1607.0 | 2517.0 | 3280.0 | 4119.0 |
| 2025-04-27 | 1003.0 | 176.0 | 245.0 | 346.0 | 584.0 | 1676.0 | 2629.0 | 3428.0 | 4308.0 |
| 2025-05-04 | 1005.0 | 175.0 | 244.0 | 345.0 | 585.0 | 1683.0 | 2644.0 | 3452.0 | 4342.0 |
| 2025-05-11 | 985.0 | 169.0 | 236.0 | 335.0 | 571.0 | 1655.0 | 2605.0 | 3404.0 | 4286.0 |
| 2025-05-18 | 874.0 | 140.0 | 201.0 | 290.0 | 502.0 | 1479.0 | 2337.0 | 3060.0 | 3858.0 |
| 2025-05-25 | 808.0 | 122.0 | 179.0 | 262.0 | 459.0 | 1373.0 | 2177.0 | 2855.0 | 3604.0 |
| 2025-06-01 | 763.0 | 110.0 | 164.0 | 243.0 | 431.0 | 1302.0 | 2071.0 | 2720.0 | 3438.0 |
| 2025-06-08 | 690.0 | 92.0 | 141.0 | 213.0 | 385.0 | 1185.0 | 1893.0 | 2491.0 | 3153.0 |
| 2025-06-15 | 596.0 | 68.0 | 112.0 | 175.0 | 327.0 | 1035.0 | 1662.0 | 2193.0 | 2781.0 |
| 2025-06-22 | 558.0 | 58.0 | 99.0 | 159.0 | 303.0 | 974.0 | 1571.0 | 2077.0 | 2638.0 |
| 2025-06-29 | 526.0 | 49.0 | 88.0 | 145.0 | 282.0 | 925.0 | 1497.0 | 1982.0 | 2521.0 |
| 2025-07-06 | 511.0 | 45.0 | 83.0 | 139.0 | 273.0 | 903.0 | 1466.0 | 1944.0 | 2476.0 |
| 2025-07-13 | 465.0 | 33.0 | 68.0 | 120.0 | 244.0 | 829.0 | 1353.0 | 1798.0 | 2294.0 |
| 2025-07-20 | 400.0 | 17.0 | 48.0 | 94.0 | 204.0 | 723.0 | 1190.0 | 1587.0 | 2030.0 |
| 2025-07-27 | 406.0 | 18.0 | 49.0 | 96.0 | 207.0 | 735.0 | 1210.0 | 1616.0 | 2068.0 |
| 2025-08-03 | 396.0 | 15.0 | 46.0 | 91.0 | 200.0 | 719.0 | 1187.0 | 1587.0 | 2034.0 |
| 2025-08-10 | 356.0 | 5.0 | 33.0 | 75.0 | 176.0 | 655.0 | 1088.0 | 1459.0 | 1872.0 |
| 2025-08-17 | 340.0 | 1.0 | 28.0 | 68.0 | 166.0 | 630.0 | 1050.0 | 1410.0 | 1812.0 |
| 2025-08-24 | 312.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 57.0 | 148.0 | 585.0 | 981.0 | 1320.0 | 1699.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 303.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 53.0 | 142.0 | 570.0 | 959.0 | 1292.0 | 1666.0 |
| 2025-09-07 | 289.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 48.0 | 134.0 | 548.0 | 926.0 | 1250.0 | 1613.0 |
| 2025-09-14 | 268.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 40.0 | 121.0 | 514.0 | 873.0 | 1181.0 | 1526.0 |
| 2025-09-21 | 277.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 42.0 | 126.0 | 528.0 | 897.0 | 1213.0 | 1568.0 |
| 2025-09-28 | 276.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 42.0 | 125.0 | 528.0 | 897.0 | 1214.0 | 1570.0 |
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