Prediction 3591
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Piauí |
Description:
Validation test 3 for UF=PI (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-06 | 51.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 96.0 | 147.0 | 184.0 | 221.0 |
| 2024-10-13 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 95.0 | 147.0 | 185.0 | 223.0 |
| 2024-10-20 | 47.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 92.0 | 144.0 | 182.0 | 220.0 |
| 2024-10-27 | 48.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 94.0 | 147.0 | 186.0 | 225.0 |
| 2024-11-03 | 52.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 99.0 | 155.0 | 196.0 | 236.0 |
| 2024-11-10 | 53.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 102.0 | 160.0 | 202.0 | 243.0 |
| 2024-11-17 | 53.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 103.0 | 161.0 | 204.0 | 246.0 |
| 2024-11-24 | 54.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 104.0 | 163.0 | 206.0 | 250.0 |
| 2024-12-01 | 53.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 103.0 | 162.0 | 205.0 | 249.0 |
| 2024-12-08 | 52.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 102.0 | 162.0 | 206.0 | 249.0 |
| 2024-12-15 | 45.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 93.0 | 150.0 | 192.0 | 234.0 |
| 2024-12-22 | 42.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 90.0 | 147.0 | 188.0 | 230.0 |
| 2024-12-29 | 80.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 34.0 | 140.0 | 213.0 | 266.0 | 319.0 |
| 2025-01-05 | 94.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 45.0 | 161.0 | 240.0 | 298.0 | 356.0 |
| 2025-01-12 | 99.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 48.0 | 167.0 | 249.0 | 309.0 | 369.0 |
| 2025-01-19 | 112.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 21.0 | 58.0 | 185.0 | 272.0 | 336.0 | 401.0 |
| 2025-01-26 | 140.0 | 1.0 | 16.0 | 36.0 | 78.0 | 223.0 | 322.0 | 395.0 | 469.0 |
| 2025-02-02 | 161.0 | 10.0 | 26.0 | 48.0 | 93.0 | 251.0 | 359.0 | 439.0 | 520.0 |
| 2025-02-09 | 180.0 | 17.0 | 35.0 | 59.0 | 107.0 | 277.0 | 394.0 | 480.0 | 567.0 |
| 2025-02-16 | 198.0 | 25.0 | 43.0 | 69.0 | 121.0 | 302.0 | 427.0 | 520.0 | 613.0 |
| 2025-02-23 | 226.0 | 36.0 | 57.0 | 84.0 | 142.0 | 341.0 | 478.0 | 580.0 | 683.0 |
| 2025-03-02 | 269.0 | 54.0 | 77.0 | 108.0 | 173.0 | 400.0 | 555.0 | 671.0 | 788.0 |
| 2025-03-09 | 317.0 | 73.0 | 100.0 | 135.0 | 208.0 | 464.0 | 641.0 | 772.0 | 904.0 |
| 2025-03-16 | 344.0 | 84.0 | 112.0 | 150.0 | 228.0 | 501.0 | 690.0 | 830.0 | 972.0 |
| 2025-03-23 | 356.0 | 89.0 | 117.0 | 156.0 | 236.0 | 517.0 | 711.0 | 855.0 | 1001.0 |
| 2025-03-30 | 391.0 | 103.0 | 134.0 | 176.0 | 262.0 | 566.0 | 776.0 | 931.0 | 1089.0 |
| 2025-04-06 | 414.0 | 112.0 | 145.0 | 188.0 | 279.0 | 597.0 | 817.0 | 981.0 | 1146.0 |
| 2025-04-13 | 446.0 | 125.0 | 160.0 | 206.0 | 303.0 | 641.0 | 876.0 | 1050.0 | 1226.0 |
| 2025-04-20 | 445.0 | 124.0 | 159.0 | 205.0 | 302.0 | 640.0 | 875.0 | 1049.0 | 1225.0 |
| 2025-04-27 | 434.0 | 119.0 | 153.0 | 199.0 | 293.0 | 626.0 | 856.0 | 1027.0 | 1200.0 |
| 2025-05-04 | 448.0 | 125.0 | 159.0 | 206.0 | 303.0 | 644.0 | 881.0 | 1057.0 | 1235.0 |
| 2025-05-11 | 444.0 | 123.0 | 158.0 | 204.0 | 300.0 | 640.0 | 875.0 | 1050.0 | 1228.0 |
| 2025-05-18 | 372.0 | 93.0 | 123.0 | 163.0 | 247.0 | 542.0 | 746.0 | 898.0 | 1052.0 |
| 2025-05-25 | 355.0 | 86.0 | 115.0 | 154.0 | 235.0 | 519.0 | 717.0 | 864.0 | 1013.0 |
| 2025-06-01 | 311.0 | 68.0 | 94.0 | 129.0 | 202.0 | 459.0 | 637.0 | 770.0 | 905.0 |
| 2025-06-08 | 274.0 | 53.0 | 76.0 | 108.0 | 175.0 | 409.0 | 572.0 | 693.0 | 816.0 |
| 2025-06-15 | 241.0 | 39.0 | 61.0 | 90.0 | 150.0 | 364.0 | 513.0 | 623.0 | 735.0 |
| 2025-06-22 | 201.0 | 23.0 | 42.0 | 68.0 | 121.0 | 310.0 | 442.0 | 540.0 | 640.0 |
| 2025-06-29 | 176.0 | 12.0 | 30.0 | 53.0 | 103.0 | 276.0 | 397.0 | 487.0 | 578.0 |
| 2025-07-06 | 155.0 | 4.0 | 20.0 | 42.0 | 87.0 | 248.0 | 360.0 | 443.0 | 528.0 |
| 2025-07-13 | 125.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 25.0 | 65.0 | 207.0 | 306.0 | 380.0 | 455.0 |
| 2025-07-20 | 109.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 53.0 | 186.0 | 278.0 | 347.0 | 417.0 |
| 2025-07-27 | 101.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 47.0 | 175.0 | 264.0 | 330.0 | 397.0 |
| 2025-08-03 | 90.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 39.0 | 159.0 | 243.0 | 305.0 | 369.0 |
| 2025-08-10 | 70.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 133.0 | 208.0 | 265.0 | 322.0 |
| 2025-08-17 | 65.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 | 125.0 | 198.0 | 253.0 | 309.0 |
| 2025-08-24 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 105.0 | 172.0 | 222.0 | 273.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 43.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 95.0 | 159.0 | 206.0 | 255.0 |
| 2025-09-07 | 35.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 85.0 | 145.0 | 190.0 | 236.0 |
| 2025-09-14 | 32.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 80.0 | 139.0 | 183.0 | 227.0 |
| 2025-09-21 | 25.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 72.0 | 128.0 | 170.0 | 212.0 |
| 2025-09-28 | 26.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 73.0 | 129.0 | 171.0 | 214.0 |
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Confidence Interval
To toggle the Prediction's Confidence Interval bounds of the in the chart, click in the Prediction's legend
or line
Interval Bounds
When the Confidence Interval is active, the Prediction will display the 50% and 90% bounds (upper and lower)
