Prediction 3592
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Paraná |
Description:
Validation test 3 for UF=PR (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-06 | 2472.0 | 534.0 | 695.0 | 930.0 | 1489.0 | 4064.0 | 6325.0 | 8228.0 | 10330.0 |
| 2024-10-13 | 2599.0 | 540.0 | 707.0 | 954.0 | 1545.0 | 4328.0 | 6814.0 | 8927.0 | 11276.0 |
| 2024-10-20 | 2608.0 | 519.0 | 685.0 | 932.0 | 1530.0 | 4400.0 | 7008.0 | 9245.0 | 11747.0 |
| 2024-10-27 | 2740.0 | 527.0 | 699.0 | 957.0 | 1588.0 | 4678.0 | 7530.0 | 9998.0 | 12775.0 |
| 2024-11-03 | 3121.0 | 586.0 | 780.0 | 1072.0 | 1792.0 | 5382.0 | 8749.0 | 11685.0 | 15009.0 |
| 2024-11-10 | 3228.0 | 586.0 | 785.0 | 1085.0 | 1833.0 | 5629.0 | 9243.0 | 12419.0 | 16037.0 |
| 2024-11-17 | 3821.0 | 683.0 | 915.0 | 1268.0 | 2153.0 | 6725.0 | 11140.0 | 15051.0 | 19529.0 |
| 2024-11-24 | 3980.0 | 690.0 | 929.0 | 1295.0 | 2219.0 | 7077.0 | 11832.0 | 16075.0 | 20960.0 |
| 2024-12-01 | 4443.0 | 754.0 | 1018.0 | 1423.0 | 2456.0 | 7975.0 | 13449.0 | 18369.0 | 24061.0 |
| 2024-12-08 | 5161.0 | 861.0 | 1163.0 | 1631.0 | 2831.0 | 9343.0 | 15887.0 | 21809.0 | 28694.0 |
| 2024-12-15 | 4817.0 | 774.0 | 1053.0 | 1489.0 | 2613.0 | 8810.0 | 15115.0 | 20858.0 | 27568.0 |
| 2024-12-22 | 4365.0 | 672.0 | 924.0 | 1318.0 | 2341.0 | 8067.0 | 13964.0 | 19369.0 | 25714.0 |
| 2024-12-29 | 5520.0 | 847.0 | 1161.0 | 1654.0 | 2945.0 | 10272.0 | 17905.0 | 24946.0 | 33248.0 |
| 2025-01-05 | 6523.0 | 988.0 | 1355.0 | 1933.0 | 3457.0 | 12230.0 | 21472.0 | 30050.0 | 40207.0 |
| 2025-01-12 | 8020.0 | 1202.0 | 1647.0 | 2353.0 | 4225.0 | 15146.0 | 26778.0 | 37638.0 | 50552.0 |
| 2025-01-19 | 9021.0 | 1328.0 | 1823.0 | 2613.0 | 4718.0 | 17167.0 | 30569.0 | 43151.0 | 58176.0 |
| 2025-01-26 | 10724.0 | 1555.0 | 2138.0 | 3070.0 | 5572.0 | 20556.0 | 36852.0 | 52238.0 | 70684.0 |
| 2025-02-02 | 12661.0 | 1808.0 | 2489.0 | 3583.0 | 6535.0 | 24444.0 | 44118.0 | 62791.0 | 85268.0 |
| 2025-02-09 | 15363.0 | 2161.0 | 2980.0 | 4299.0 | 7879.0 | 29866.0 | 54255.0 | 77527.0 | 105643.0 |
| 2025-02-16 | 17352.0 | 2398.0 | 3314.0 | 4796.0 | 8839.0 | 33972.0 | 62114.0 | 89104.0 | 121833.0 |
| 2025-02-23 | 20420.0 | 2776.0 | 3845.0 | 5578.0 | 10335.0 | 40249.0 | 74055.0 | 106638.0 | 146290.0 |
| 2025-03-02 | 23451.0 | 3135.0 | 4351.0 | 6331.0 | 11794.0 | 46536.0 | 86150.0 | 124516.0 | 171370.0 |
| 2025-03-09 | 26588.0 | 3494.0 | 4861.0 | 7094.0 | 13286.0 | 53109.0 | 98913.0 | 143482.0 | 198098.0 |
| 2025-03-16 | 29664.0 | 3831.0 | 5343.0 | 7822.0 | 14730.0 | 59638.0 | 111730.0 | 162651.0 | 225257.0 |
| 2025-03-23 | 29447.0 | 3730.0 | 5219.0 | 7668.0 | 14527.0 | 59588.0 | 112291.0 | 164039.0 | 227869.0 |
| 2025-03-30 | 30536.0 | 3798.0 | 5330.0 | 7858.0 | 14970.0 | 62179.0 | 117839.0 | 172729.0 | 240649.0 |
| 2025-04-06 | 30864.0 | 3770.0 | 5307.0 | 7849.0 | 15038.0 | 63236.0 | 120508.0 | 177229.0 | 247630.0 |
| 2025-04-13 | 28590.0 | 3424.0 | 4837.0 | 7182.0 | 13842.0 | 58940.0 | 112938.0 | 166638.0 | 233491.0 |
| 2025-04-20 | 24497.0 | 2870.0 | 4072.0 | 6074.0 | 11783.0 | 50816.0 | 97901.0 | 144917.0 | 203619.0 |
| 2025-04-27 | 22095.0 | 2536.0 | 3612.0 | 5410.0 | 10561.0 | 46107.0 | 89299.0 | 132598.0 | 186814.0 |
| 2025-05-04 | 19405.0 | 2179.0 | 3118.0 | 4691.0 | 9217.0 | 40736.0 | 79306.0 | 118121.0 | 166860.0 |
| 2025-05-11 | 15344.0 | 1676.0 | 2414.0 | 3654.0 | 7236.0 | 32410.0 | 63429.0 | 94763.0 | 134214.0 |
| 2025-05-18 | 11049.0 | 1162.0 | 1692.0 | 2583.0 | 5168.0 | 23496.0 | 46232.0 | 69284.0 | 98385.0 |
| 2025-05-25 | 7833.0 | 785.0 | 1159.0 | 1790.0 | 3629.0 | 16778.0 | 33197.0 | 49903.0 | 71049.0 |
| 2025-06-01 | 5690.0 | 536.0 | 807.0 | 1266.0 | 2607.0 | 12280.0 | 24437.0 | 36850.0 | 52602.0 |
| 2025-06-08 | 5005.0 | 453.0 | 690.0 | 1093.0 | 2275.0 | 10872.0 | 21743.0 | 32882.0 | 47051.0 |
| 2025-06-15 | 3969.0 | 334.0 | 522.0 | 842.0 | 1784.0 | 8688.0 | 17474.0 | 26505.0 | 38023.0 |
| 2025-06-22 | 3421.0 | 269.0 | 430.0 | 705.0 | 1520.0 | 7554.0 | 15298.0 | 23295.0 | 33526.0 |
| 2025-06-29 | 2847.0 | 202.0 | 336.0 | 565.0 | 1246.0 | 6353.0 | 12964.0 | 19825.0 | 28635.0 |
| 2025-07-06 | 2491.0 | 160.0 | 277.0 | 477.0 | 1075.0 | 5612.0 | 11537.0 | 17715.0 | 25675.0 |
| 2025-07-13 | 2132.0 | 120.0 | 219.0 | 391.0 | 906.0 | 4856.0 | 10058.0 | 15509.0 | 22555.0 |
| 2025-07-20 | 1981.0 | 101.0 | 193.0 | 352.0 | 831.0 | 4550.0 | 9488.0 | 14686.0 | 21427.0 |
| 2025-07-27 | 1799.0 | 80.0 | 163.0 | 307.0 | 744.0 | 4172.0 | 8760.0 | 13610.0 | 19921.0 |
| 2025-08-03 | 1631.0 | 61.0 | 136.0 | 267.0 | 665.0 | 3818.0 | 8072.0 | 12589.0 | 18485.0 |
| 2025-08-10 | 1519.0 | 48.0 | 118.0 | 239.0 | 611.0 | 3588.0 | 7635.0 | 11950.0 | 17599.0 |
| 2025-08-17 | 1492.0 | 43.0 | 111.0 | 230.0 | 595.0 | 3548.0 | 7593.0 | 11923.0 | 17610.0 |
| 2025-08-24 | 1408.0 | 33.0 | 97.0 | 209.0 | 554.0 | 3375.0 | 7267.0 | 11451.0 | 16961.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 1354.0 | 26.0 | 87.0 | 194.0 | 527.0 | 3269.0 | 7080.0 | 11192.0 | 16623.0 |
| 2025-09-07 | 1393.0 | 28.0 | 90.0 | 199.0 | 540.0 | 3379.0 | 7352.0 | 11656.0 | 17356.0 |
| 2025-09-14 | 1376.0 | 24.0 | 85.0 | 193.0 | 530.0 | 3359.0 | 7345.0 | 11679.0 | 17436.0 |
| 2025-09-21 | 1356.0 | 21.0 | 80.0 | 186.0 | 518.0 | 3330.0 | 7319.0 | 11673.0 | 17470.0 |
| 2025-09-28 | 1383.0 | 21.0 | 81.0 | 188.0 | 526.0 | 3412.0 | 7532.0 | 12044.0 | 18069.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
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