Prediction 3594
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Rio Grande do Norte |
Description:
Validation test 3 for UF=RN (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-06 | 56.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 119.0 | 197.0 | 256.0 | 317.0 |
| 2024-10-13 | 61.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 127.0 | 209.0 | 272.0 | 337.0 |
| 2024-10-20 | 55.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 121.0 | 202.0 | 265.0 | 330.0 |
| 2024-10-27 | 59.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 127.0 | 213.0 | 279.0 | 348.0 |
| 2024-11-03 | 63.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 134.0 | 225.0 | 294.0 | 367.0 |
| 2024-11-10 | 67.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 141.0 | 235.0 | 308.0 | 384.0 |
| 2024-11-17 | 71.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 148.0 | 246.0 | 322.0 | 402.0 |
| 2024-11-24 | 68.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 144.0 | 242.0 | 318.0 | 398.0 |
| 2024-12-01 | 73.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 152.0 | 255.0 | 335.0 | 419.0 |
| 2024-12-08 | 77.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 | 160.0 | 266.0 | 350.0 | 438.0 |
| 2024-12-15 | 68.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 147.0 | 249.0 | 329.0 | 414.0 |
| 2024-12-22 | 58.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 133.0 | 231.0 | 308.0 | 389.0 |
| 2024-12-29 | 114.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 45.0 | 217.0 | 351.0 | 457.0 | 568.0 |
| 2025-01-05 | 124.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 51.0 | 232.0 | 374.0 | 486.0 | 604.0 |
| 2025-01-12 | 151.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 69.0 | 272.0 | 432.0 | 559.0 | 693.0 |
| 2025-01-19 | 162.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 23.0 | 76.0 | 290.0 | 459.0 | 593.0 | 735.0 |
| 2025-01-26 | 202.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 41.0 | 102.0 | 351.0 | 547.0 | 703.0 | 868.0 |
| 2025-02-02 | 219.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 48.0 | 113.0 | 378.0 | 587.0 | 754.0 | 932.0 |
| 2025-02-09 | 267.0 | 13.0 | 36.0 | 70.0 | 145.0 | 450.0 | 693.0 | 886.0 | 1092.0 |
| 2025-02-16 | 335.0 | 33.0 | 61.0 | 101.0 | 190.0 | 554.0 | 844.0 | 1076.0 | 1322.0 |
| 2025-02-23 | 403.0 | 53.0 | 85.0 | 131.0 | 234.0 | 657.0 | 994.0 | 1264.0 | 1552.0 |
| 2025-03-02 | 463.0 | 71.0 | 107.0 | 158.0 | 273.0 | 749.0 | 1129.0 | 1434.0 | 1758.0 |
| 2025-03-09 | 519.0 | 87.0 | 126.0 | 183.0 | 310.0 | 835.0 | 1256.0 | 1593.0 | 1953.0 |
| 2025-03-16 | 520.0 | 86.0 | 126.0 | 182.0 | 310.0 | 838.0 | 1261.0 | 1601.0 | 1964.0 |
| 2025-03-23 | 487.0 | 76.0 | 113.0 | 167.0 | 287.0 | 789.0 | 1193.0 | 1517.0 | 1863.0 |
| 2025-03-30 | 595.0 | 107.0 | 152.0 | 215.0 | 358.0 | 955.0 | 1435.0 | 1821.0 | 2235.0 |
| 2025-04-06 | 646.0 | 121.0 | 169.0 | 237.0 | 391.0 | 1033.0 | 1550.0 | 1967.0 | 2413.0 |
| 2025-04-13 | 643.0 | 120.0 | 167.0 | 235.0 | 388.0 | 1030.0 | 1547.0 | 1965.0 | 2411.0 |
| 2025-04-20 | 614.0 | 111.0 | 156.0 | 221.0 | 369.0 | 987.0 | 1487.0 | 1890.0 | 2322.0 |
| 2025-04-27 | 611.0 | 109.0 | 154.0 | 219.0 | 366.0 | 983.0 | 1482.0 | 1885.0 | 2317.0 |
| 2025-05-04 | 596.0 | 104.0 | 149.0 | 212.0 | 356.0 | 962.0 | 1454.0 | 1851.0 | 2276.0 |
| 2025-05-11 | 577.0 | 98.0 | 141.0 | 203.0 | 343.0 | 934.0 | 1413.0 | 1800.0 | 2216.0 |
| 2025-05-18 | 508.0 | 77.0 | 116.0 | 172.0 | 298.0 | 829.0 | 1261.0 | 1610.0 | 1985.0 |
| 2025-05-25 | 474.0 | 67.0 | 104.0 | 156.0 | 275.0 | 778.0 | 1187.0 | 1519.0 | 1874.0 |
| 2025-06-01 | 442.0 | 57.0 | 92.0 | 141.0 | 254.0 | 729.0 | 1117.0 | 1430.0 | 1767.0 |
| 2025-06-08 | 402.0 | 45.0 | 78.0 | 123.0 | 228.0 | 669.0 | 1030.0 | 1321.0 | 1635.0 |
| 2025-06-15 | 375.0 | 37.0 | 68.0 | 111.0 | 210.0 | 629.0 | 970.0 | 1247.0 | 1545.0 |
| 2025-06-22 | 329.0 | 23.0 | 51.0 | 90.0 | 179.0 | 558.0 | 868.0 | 1120.0 | 1390.0 |
| 2025-06-29 | 322.0 | 21.0 | 48.0 | 86.0 | 174.0 | 549.0 | 855.0 | 1104.0 | 1372.0 |
| 2025-07-06 | 302.0 | 15.0 | 40.0 | 77.0 | 161.0 | 519.0 | 813.0 | 1051.0 | 1309.0 |
| 2025-07-13 | 276.0 | 7.0 | 31.0 | 65.0 | 144.0 | 479.0 | 755.0 | 980.0 | 1222.0 |
| 2025-07-20 | 239.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 49.0 | 120.0 | 424.0 | 674.0 | 878.0 | 1097.0 |
| 2025-07-27 | 230.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 44.0 | 113.0 | 409.0 | 654.0 | 853.0 | 1067.0 |
| 2025-08-03 | 233.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 45.0 | 115.0 | 415.0 | 662.0 | 864.0 | 1082.0 |
| 2025-08-10 | 196.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 29.0 | 91.0 | 359.0 | 580.0 | 761.0 | 956.0 |
| 2025-08-17 | 171.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 75.0 | 320.0 | 523.0 | 689.0 | 869.0 |
| 2025-08-24 | 133.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 50.0 | 261.0 | 436.0 | 579.0 | 734.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 131.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 49.0 | 259.0 | 433.0 | 576.0 | 730.0 |
| 2025-09-07 | 124.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 44.0 | 247.0 | 417.0 | 555.0 | 705.0 |
| 2025-09-14 | 112.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 37.0 | 230.0 | 392.0 | 524.0 | 667.0 |
| 2025-09-21 | 96.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 26.0 | 205.0 | 355.0 | 477.0 | 610.0 |
| 2025-09-28 | 96.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 26.0 | 205.0 | 355.0 | 477.0 | 610.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
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