Prediction 360
| Modelo | Model 1 - Weekly and yearly (iid) components |
|---|---|
| Autor | Marcio Maciel Bastos |
Descrição:
This upload represents the epidemic prediction for unseen data from the period of 2024-06-16 to 2025-10-05 in the state PR. The model is founded on a structural decomposition designed for modeling counting series, employing a Poisson distribution. The log intensity is defined by the sum of weekly and yearly components, where the first one is defined as a AR(1) process and the last one is assumed to be iid.
Mostrar Tabela
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-06-16 | 9802.79 | - | 9634.78 | - | - | - | - | 9972.97 | - |
| 2024-06-23 | 7461.99 | - | 7316.15 | - | - | - | - | 7609.98 | - |
| 2024-06-30 | 6369.48 | - | 6235.11 | - | - | - | - | 6505.99 | - |
| 2024-07-07 | 4845.36 | - | 4728.68 | - | - | - | - | 4964.16 | - |
| 2024-07-14 | 4682.45 | - | 4567.83 | - | - | - | - | 4799.18 | - |
| 2024-07-21 | 4320.82 | - | 4210.86 | - | - | - | - | 4432.88 | - |
| 2024-07-28 | 3965.76 | - | 3860.56 | - | - | - | - | 4073.06 | - |
| 2024-08-04 | 3529.78 | - | 3430.72 | - | - | - | - | 3630.94 | - |
| 2024-08-11 | 3767.25 | - | 3664.81 | - | - | - | - | 3871.80 | - |
| 2024-08-18 | 3988.51 | - | 3883.00 | - | - | - | - | 4096.13 | - |
| 2024-08-25 | 3697.78 | - | 3596.32 | - | - | - | - | 3801.34 | - |
| 2024-09-01 | 3632.27 | - | 3531.74 | - | - | - | - | 3734.90 | - |
| 2024-09-08 | 3957.61 | - | 3852.52 | - | - | - | - | 4064.80 | - |
| 2024-09-15 | 4049.12 | - | 3942.78 | - | - | - | - | 4157.55 | - |
| 2024-09-22 | 4360.88 | - | 4250.39 | - | - | - | - | 4473.48 | - |
| 2024-09-29 | 4270.94 | - | 4161.64 | - | - | - | - | 4382.36 | - |
| 2024-10-06 | 4652.93 | - | 4538.68 | - | - | - | - | 4769.30 | - |
| 2024-10-13 | 4563.70 | - | 4450.58 | - | - | - | - | 4678.93 | - |
| 2024-10-20 | 5077.63 | - | 4958.09 | - | - | - | - | 5199.30 | - |
| 2024-10-27 | 4209.34 | - | 4100.73 | - | - | - | - | 4320.05 | - |
| 2024-11-03 | 6147.61 | - | 6015.66 | - | - | - | - | 6281.70 | - |
| 2024-11-10 | 6890.43 | - | 6750.49 | - | - | - | - | 7032.51 | - |
| 2024-11-17 | 7564.60 | - | 7417.72 | - | - | - | - | 7713.62 | - |
| 2024-11-24 | 7655.28 | - | 7507.49 | - | - | - | - | 7805.21 | - |
| 2024-12-01 | 8226.73 | - | 8073.33 | - | - | - | - | 8382.28 | - |
| 2024-12-08 | 9460.38 | - | 9295.43 | - | - | - | - | 9627.49 | - |
| 2024-12-15 | 8556.06 | - | 8399.50 | - | - | - | - | 8714.78 | - |
| 2024-12-22 | 6463.16 | - | 6340.15 | - | - | - | - | 6587.92 | - |
| 2024-12-29 | 1380.08 | - | 67.30 | - | - | - | - | 6862.64 | - |
| 2025-01-05 | 1621.81 | - | 79.08 | - | - | - | - | 8064.68 | - |
| 2025-01-12 | 2039.04 | - | 99.43 | - | - | - | - | 10139.36 | - |
| 2025-01-19 | 2638.97 | - | 128.69 | - | - | - | - | 13122.55 | - |
| 2025-01-26 | 2851.33 | - | 139.04 | - | - | - | - | 14178.53 | - |
| 2025-02-02 | 3838.01 | - | 187.16 | - | - | - | - | 19084.83 | - |
| 2025-02-09 | 4616.24 | - | 225.11 | - | - | - | - | 22954.65 | - |
| 2025-02-16 | 4701.28 | - | 229.25 | - | - | - | - | 23377.49 | - |
| 2025-02-23 | 6259.66 | - | 305.25 | - | - | - | - | 31126.67 | - |
| 2025-03-02 | 6632.29 | - | 323.42 | - | - | - | - | 32979.58 | - |
| 2025-03-09 | 8338.65 | - | 406.63 | - | - | - | - | 41464.53 | - |
| 2025-03-16 | 8125.10 | - | 396.22 | - | - | - | - | 40402.62 | - |
| 2025-03-23 | 8836.74 | - | 430.92 | - | - | - | - | 43941.30 | - |
| 2025-03-30 | 9706.24 | - | 473.32 | - | - | - | - | 48264.92 | - |
| 2025-04-06 | 9915.05 | - | 483.51 | - | - | - | - | 49303.25 | - |
| 2025-04-13 | 8369.08 | - | 408.12 | - | - | - | - | 41615.86 | - |
| 2025-04-20 | 7820.06 | - | 381.34 | - | - | - | - | 38885.79 | - |
| 2025-04-27 | 7858.86 | - | 383.24 | - | - | - | - | 39078.76 | - |
| 2025-05-04 | 7742.05 | - | 377.54 | - | - | - | - | 38497.89 | - |
| 2025-05-11 | 5538.26 | - | 270.07 | - | - | - | - | 27539.46 | - |
| 2025-05-18 | 4151.51 | - | 202.45 | - | - | - | - | 20643.73 | - |
| 2025-05-25 | 2672.85 | - | 130.34 | - | - | - | - | 13291.00 | - |
| 2025-06-01 | 2074.20 | - | 101.14 | - | - | - | - | 10314.21 | - |
| 2025-06-08 | 1840.23 | - | 89.73 | - | - | - | - | 9150.74 | - |
| 2025-06-15 | 1641.18 | - | 80.02 | - | - | - | - | 8161.05 | - |
| 2025-06-22 | 1249.28 | - | 60.91 | - | - | - | - | 6212.32 | - |
| 2025-06-29 | 1066.38 | - | 51.99 | - | - | - | - | 5302.80 | - |
| 2025-07-06 | 811.21 | - | 39.55 | - | - | - | - | 4033.97 | - |
| 2025-07-13 | 783.93 | - | 38.22 | - | - | - | - | 3898.34 | - |
| 2025-07-20 | 723.39 | - | 35.27 | - | - | - | - | 3597.28 | - |
| 2025-07-27 | 663.95 | - | 32.37 | - | - | - | - | 3301.69 | - |
| 2025-08-03 | 590.95 | - | 28.81 | - | - | - | - | 2938.74 | - |
| 2025-08-10 | 630.71 | - | 30.75 | - | - | - | - | 3136.44 | - |
| 2025-08-17 | 667.75 | - | 32.56 | - | - | - | - | 3320.63 | - |
| 2025-08-24 | 619.08 | - | 30.18 | - | - | - | - | 3078.60 | - |
| 2025-08-31 | 608.11 | - | 29.65 | - | - | - | - | 3024.06 | - |
| 2025-09-07 | 662.58 | - | 32.30 | - | - | - | - | 3294.91 | - |
| 2025-09-14 | 677.90 | - | 33.05 | - | - | - | - | 3371.09 | - |
| 2025-09-21 | 730.10 | - | 35.60 | - | - | - | - | 3630.63 | - |
| 2025-09-28 | 715.04 | - | 34.86 | - | - | - | - | 3555.76 | - |
| 2025-10-05 | 778.99 | - | 37.98 | - | - | - | - | 3873.77 | - |
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