Prediction 3600
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | São Paulo |
Description:
Validation test 3 for UF=SP (Model SARIMAX)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-06 | 10719.0 | 2800.0 | 3484.0 | 4475.0 | 6777.0 | 16919.0 | 25486.0 | 32557.0 | 40255.0 |
| 2024-10-13 | 11560.0 | 2907.0 | 3640.0 | 4707.0 | 7215.0 | 18488.0 | 28182.0 | 36258.0 | 45108.0 |
| 2024-10-20 | 11763.0 | 2848.0 | 3587.0 | 4673.0 | 7246.0 | 19055.0 | 29383.0 | 38065.0 | 47640.0 |
| 2024-10-27 | 12248.0 | 2860.0 | 3624.0 | 4752.0 | 7453.0 | 20087.0 | 31320.0 | 40845.0 | 51416.0 |
| 2024-11-03 | 13862.0 | 3132.0 | 3989.0 | 5263.0 | 8338.0 | 23002.0 | 36248.0 | 47573.0 | 60218.0 |
| 2024-11-10 | 14407.0 | 3147.0 | 4030.0 | 5351.0 | 8567.0 | 24185.0 | 38511.0 | 50860.0 | 64728.0 |
| 2024-11-17 | 16775.0 | 3555.0 | 4574.0 | 6106.0 | 9868.0 | 28469.0 | 45787.0 | 60832.0 | 77823.0 |
| 2024-11-24 | 18501.0 | 3802.0 | 4916.0 | 6600.0 | 10767.0 | 31737.0 | 51542.0 | 68880.0 | 88568.0 |
| 2024-12-01 | 21442.0 | 4281.0 | 5560.0 | 7503.0 | 12352.0 | 37166.0 | 60931.0 | 81890.0 | 105817.0 |
| 2024-12-08 | 23789.0 | 4614.0 | 6020.0 | 8168.0 | 13567.0 | 41658.0 | 68928.0 | 93153.0 | 120952.0 |
| 2024-12-15 | 23299.0 | 4384.0 | 5749.0 | 7844.0 | 13152.0 | 41216.0 | 68822.0 | 93517.0 | 121999.0 |
| 2024-12-22 | 22714.0 | 4149.0 | 5467.0 | 7502.0 | 12694.0 | 40581.0 | 68365.0 | 93391.0 | 122397.0 |
| 2024-12-29 | 41054.0 | 7354.0 | 9710.0 | 13365.0 | 22759.0 | 73992.0 | 125679.0 | 172545.0 | 227125.0 |
| 2025-01-05 | 50538.0 | 8825.0 | 11698.0 | 16176.0 | 27764.0 | 91926.0 | 157448.0 | 217246.0 | 287214.0 |
| 2025-01-12 | 65543.0 | 11165.0 | 14855.0 | 20634.0 | 35690.0 | 120295.0 | 207725.0 | 288028.0 | 382417.0 |
| 2025-01-19 | 81294.0 | 13508.0 | 18042.0 | 25174.0 | 43882.0 | 150531.0 | 262025.0 | 365069.0 | 486734.0 |
| 2025-01-26 | 102352.0 | 16598.0 | 22252.0 | 31187.0 | 54777.0 | 191171.0 | 335385.0 | 469484.0 | 628508.0 |
| 2025-02-02 | 123929.0 | 19616.0 | 26399.0 | 37163.0 | 65766.0 | 233452.0 | 412724.0 | 580415.0 | 780132.0 |
| 2025-02-09 | 147681.0 | 22825.0 | 30833.0 | 43596.0 | 77723.0 | 280528.0 | 499704.0 | 705917.0 | 952546.0 |
| 2025-02-16 | 165833.0 | 25032.0 | 33942.0 | 48201.0 | 86565.0 | 317604.0 | 569947.0 | 808722.0 | 1095470.0 |
| 2025-02-23 | 194274.0 | 28657.0 | 38999.0 | 55619.0 | 100604.0 | 375074.0 | 677973.0 | 966189.0 | 1313708.0 |
| 2025-03-02 | 215661.0 | 31096.0 | 42472.0 | 60826.0 | 110803.0 | 419662.0 | 763981.0 | 1093404.0 | 1492181.0 |
| 2025-03-09 | 241998.0 | 34123.0 | 46773.0 | 67263.0 | 123378.0 | 474570.0 | 869985.0 | 1250326.0 | 1712526.0 |
| 2025-03-16 | 261542.0 | 36077.0 | 49626.0 | 71656.0 | 132335.0 | 516809.0 | 953924.0 | 1376591.0 | 1892180.0 |
| 2025-03-23 | 257985.0 | 34819.0 | 48064.0 | 69683.0 | 129562.0 | 513605.0 | 954407.0 | 1382841.0 | 1907416.0 |
| 2025-03-30 | 279392.0 | 36918.0 | 51135.0 | 74425.0 | 139291.0 | 560309.0 | 1048081.0 | 1524572.0 | 2110126.0 |
| 2025-04-06 | 291751.0 | 37754.0 | 52469.0 | 76663.0 | 144410.0 | 589318.0 | 1109507.0 | 1620194.0 | 2250028.0 |
| 2025-04-13 | 283228.0 | 35901.0 | 50061.0 | 73427.0 | 139201.0 | 576166.0 | 1091676.0 | 1600240.0 | 2229674.0 |
| 2025-04-20 | 252628.0 | 31371.0 | 43892.0 | 64625.0 | 123296.0 | 517513.0 | 986705.0 | 1451797.0 | 2029424.0 |
| 2025-04-27 | 229415.0 | 27919.0 | 39191.0 | 57923.0 | 111200.0 | 473192.0 | 907772.0 | 1340583.0 | 1879952.0 |
| 2025-05-04 | 198046.0 | 23622.0 | 33270.0 | 49358.0 | 95345.0 | 411255.0 | 793745.0 | 1176443.0 | 1654959.0 |
| 2025-05-11 | 166969.0 | 19522.0 | 27587.0 | 41081.0 | 79846.0 | 349035.0 | 677686.0 | 1008010.0 | 1422402.0 |
| 2025-05-18 | 117447.0 | 13448.0 | 19075.0 | 28519.0 | 55785.0 | 247145.0 | 482696.0 | 720505.0 | 1019802.0 |
| 2025-05-25 | 85081.0 | 9537.0 | 13580.0 | 20389.0 | 40140.0 | 180216.0 | 354031.0 | 530284.0 | 752817.0 |
| 2025-06-01 | 62586.0 | 6864.0 | 9815.0 | 14799.0 | 29327.0 | 133432.0 | 263637.0 | 396239.0 | 564184.0 |
| 2025-06-08 | 51850.0 | 5568.0 | 7994.0 | 12103.0 | 24137.0 | 111248.0 | 221048.0 | 333346.0 | 476012.0 |
| 2025-06-15 | 39822.0 | 4180.0 | 6028.0 | 9170.0 | 18413.0 | 85989.0 | 171820.0 | 259970.0 | 372299.0 |
| 2025-06-22 | 31708.0 | 3223.0 | 4678.0 | 7163.0 | 14520.0 | 69102.0 | 139202.0 | 211635.0 | 304343.0 |
| 2025-06-29 | 23024.0 | 2252.0 | 3296.0 | 5088.0 | 10430.0 | 50679.0 | 102974.0 | 157355.0 | 227281.0 |
| 2025-07-06 | 19932.0 | 1884.0 | 2777.0 | 4317.0 | 8940.0 | 44291.0 | 90750.0 | 139364.0 | 202159.0 |
| 2025-07-13 | 16998.0 | 1550.0 | 2303.0 | 3606.0 | 7547.0 | 38129.0 | 78770.0 | 121558.0 | 177074.0 |
| 2025-07-20 | 14936.0 | 1315.0 | 1968.0 | 3106.0 | 6566.0 | 33815.0 | 70425.0 | 109201.0 | 159731.0 |
| 2025-07-27 | 13688.0 | 1165.0 | 1757.0 | 2792.0 | 5960.0 | 31268.0 | 65636.0 | 102251.0 | 150172.0 |
| 2025-08-03 | 12211.0 | 1002.0 | 1525.0 | 2441.0 | 5266.0 | 28146.0 | 59544.0 | 93191.0 | 137411.0 |
| 2025-08-10 | 11057.0 | 875.0 | 1343.0 | 2167.0 | 4722.0 | 25711.0 | 54812.0 | 86174.0 | 127562.0 |
| 2025-08-17 | 10341.0 | 791.0 | 1224.0 | 1989.0 | 4376.0 | 24253.0 | 52091.0 | 82258.0 | 122233.0 |
| 2025-08-24 | 9413.0 | 693.0 | 1083.0 | 1774.0 | 3946.0 | 22268.0 | 48183.0 | 76422.0 | 113991.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 8786.0 | 624.0 | 984.0 | 1625.0 | 3650.0 | 20958.0 | 45679.0 | 72761.0 | 108932.0 |
| 2025-09-07 | 9558.0 | 670.0 | 1056.0 | 1747.0 | 3944.0 | 22966.0 | 50395.0 | 80603.0 | 121104.0 |
| 2025-09-14 | 9515.0 | 649.0 | 1030.0 | 1713.0 | 3896.0 | 23039.0 | 50903.0 | 81750.0 | 123265.0 |
| 2025-09-21 | 9191.0 | 609.0 | 972.0 | 1627.0 | 3732.0 | 22427.0 | 49889.0 | 80446.0 | 121725.0 |
| 2025-09-28 | 9458.0 | 613.0 | 983.0 | 1652.0 | 3813.0 | 23244.0 | 52046.0 | 84256.0 | 127928.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
When the Confidence Interval is active, the Prediction will display the 50% and 90% bounds (upper and lower)
