Prediction 3606
| Model | Dengue oracle - M1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Eduardo Correa Araujo |
| ADM 1 | Paraná |
Description:
Validation test 2 for sprint 2025 preds in PR
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 192.73 | 70.28 | 90.94 | 102.88 | 138.70 | 280.90 | 392.27 | 491.43 | 629.19 |
| 2023-10-15 | 511.03 | 178.72 | 202.13 | 235.45 | 321.36 | 771.87 | 1228.76 | 1570.65 | 1868.76 |
| 2023-10-22 | 254.90 | 88.45 | 104.40 | 127.45 | 171.97 | 387.95 | 575.97 | 784.66 | 933.20 |
| 2023-10-29 | 322.13 | 107.30 | 133.92 | 159.71 | 221.10 | 460.28 | 725.26 | 925.08 | 1279.56 |
| 2023-11-05 | 489.46 | 206.84 | 228.64 | 271.95 | 353.62 | 727.50 | 1075.26 | 1375.04 | 1646.26 |
| 2023-11-12 | 853.24 | 272.69 | 345.72 | 414.57 | 569.55 | 1343.84 | 2232.88 | 3487.92 | 5080.84 |
| 2023-11-19 | 452.90 | 168.43 | 199.04 | 234.43 | 321.48 | 659.00 | 1036.71 | 1377.67 | 1976.50 |
| 2023-11-26 | 559.77 | 221.50 | 262.47 | 313.20 | 398.65 | 768.91 | 1070.32 | 1381.28 | 1919.62 |
| 2023-12-03 | 1351.13 | 490.23 | 577.41 | 661.27 | 911.70 | 2045.20 | 3193.64 | 4314.50 | 5516.04 |
| 2023-12-10 | 1010.89 | 399.47 | 478.62 | 545.80 | 707.37 | 1511.61 | 2150.57 | 2884.66 | 3443.82 |
| 2023-12-17 | 985.80 | 326.68 | 407.65 | 513.01 | 704.81 | 1466.24 | 2226.38 | 2901.92 | 3600.54 |
| 2023-12-24 | 819.98 | 254.51 | 299.78 | 381.21 | 520.78 | 1218.58 | 2088.69 | 3067.97 | 3924.24 |
| 2023-12-31 | 1360.25 | 519.15 | 589.01 | 706.60 | 971.14 | 1991.57 | 2934.67 | 3643.79 | 4441.06 |
| 2024-01-07 | 2441.71 | 802.41 | 947.46 | 1117.39 | 1614.12 | 3678.55 | 6196.66 | 8248.26 | 10529.88 |
| 2024-01-14 | 2089.10 | 764.31 | 888.77 | 1055.91 | 1396.87 | 2898.79 | 4487.09 | 6042.96 | 8138.81 |
| 2024-01-21 | 2607.31 | 928.54 | 1200.63 | 1382.10 | 1901.90 | 3749.30 | 5337.43 | 7790.68 | 9756.29 |
| 2024-01-28 | 2953.24 | 1180.64 | 1411.76 | 1558.47 | 2018.87 | 4270.45 | 6309.20 | 8068.56 | 9965.24 |
| 2024-02-04 | 4018.18 | 1508.90 | 1764.89 | 2003.52 | 2761.59 | 6404.16 | 9753.98 | 11896.78 | 15070.19 |
| 2024-02-11 | 5039.60 | 1879.36 | 2090.32 | 2500.22 | 3397.57 | 7444.67 | 10785.35 | 14767.96 | 19787.73 |
| 2024-02-18 | 5104.98 | 1887.63 | 2223.23 | 2627.57 | 3529.91 | 7260.24 | 10807.80 | 13252.13 | 16722.72 |
| 2024-02-25 | 5907.63 | 2694.78 | 2940.51 | 3339.39 | 4506.42 | 8266.60 | 11850.58 | 15093.85 | 18635.01 |
| 2024-03-03 | 8040.28 | 3674.90 | 4280.67 | 4872.04 | 6039.30 | 10939.65 | 15096.52 | 17559.37 | 20996.57 |
| 2024-03-10 | 8322.41 | 4108.09 | 4497.20 | 5164.13 | 6382.26 | 10958.48 | 13991.68 | 16647.56 | 20787.90 |
| 2024-03-17 | 8774.34 | 4584.25 | 5081.66 | 5639.30 | 6927.02 | 11503.76 | 13981.90 | 16229.37 | 18123.78 |
| 2024-03-24 | 12063.03 | 6555.68 | 7028.00 | 7973.92 | 9659.32 | 15324.67 | 20044.61 | 23571.15 | 27590.88 |
| 2024-03-31 | 12526.60 | 6686.34 | 7358.16 | 8307.32 | 10026.28 | 15493.00 | 20544.99 | 24706.08 | 28701.98 |
| 2024-04-07 | 13773.12 | 7994.84 | 8761.34 | 9758.41 | 11257.68 | 16782.65 | 21147.30 | 25046.12 | 28280.39 |
| 2024-04-14 | 13209.93 | 7639.49 | 8535.13 | 9360.37 | 10712.54 | 16784.36 | 20738.10 | 24349.94 | 29198.96 |
| 2024-04-21 | 13931.31 | 7492.01 | 8302.20 | 9378.56 | 11078.02 | 17470.09 | 22038.33 | 25228.47 | 28660.59 |
| 2024-04-28 | 13519.77 | 7242.40 | 8111.54 | 8931.16 | 10616.33 | 16498.01 | 22064.45 | 26587.34 | 32601.38 |
| 2024-05-05 | 13237.95 | 7080.68 | 7784.11 | 8810.52 | 10638.09 | 16948.02 | 21267.22 | 24306.78 | 26242.30 |
| 2024-05-12 | 10723.45 | 5869.73 | 6355.50 | 6941.63 | 8656.73 | 14243.58 | 19580.18 | 22403.83 | 27604.95 |
| 2024-05-19 | 7878.76 | 4125.77 | 4488.41 | 5029.34 | 6396.75 | 10345.87 | 13836.48 | 15534.36 | 18571.69 |
| 2024-05-26 | 7480.12 | 3403.58 | 3932.69 | 4466.51 | 5854.33 | 9681.27 | 12495.70 | 14747.64 | 18981.95 |
| 2024-06-02 | 4722.97 | 2318.09 | 2558.81 | 2848.83 | 3614.97 | 6226.12 | 7844.38 | 9551.96 | 10627.97 |
| 2024-06-09 | 4158.24 | 2013.83 | 2302.36 | 2607.32 | 3222.65 | 5908.95 | 7846.60 | 9355.30 | 11836.35 |
| 2024-06-16 | 2402.32 | 1002.10 | 1207.69 | 1382.80 | 1773.27 | 3369.56 | 4704.77 | 5874.38 | 6707.82 |
| 2024-06-23 | 2002.52 | 872.69 | 949.47 | 1095.89 | 1443.84 | 2961.64 | 4710.41 | 5596.68 | 6753.43 |
| 2024-06-30 | 1647.83 | 788.04 | 825.73 | 968.01 | 1235.24 | 2292.14 | 3142.40 | 3997.52 | 4635.47 |
| 2024-07-07 | 990.47 | 389.43 | 447.56 | 520.97 | 685.19 | 1471.56 | 2067.17 | 2870.87 | 3464.21 |
| 2024-07-14 | 953.61 | 378.42 | 415.00 | 481.73 | 660.36 | 1443.53 | 2281.09 | 2726.86 | 3241.32 |
| 2024-07-21 | 857.50 | 325.88 | 395.94 | 456.48 | 597.35 | 1333.30 | 1933.28 | 2405.48 | 3268.55 |
| 2024-07-28 | 598.09 | 253.77 | 276.88 | 338.81 | 431.45 | 827.31 | 1219.12 | 1659.65 | 2024.05 |
| 2024-08-04 | 390.52 | 160.64 | 193.99 | 216.14 | 281.27 | 558.01 | 775.32 | 1046.68 | 1273.54 |
| 2024-08-11 | 439.65 | 168.84 | 197.06 | 228.07 | 301.47 | 659.15 | 1054.78 | 1390.31 | 1971.05 |
| 2024-08-18 | 346.25 | 132.76 | 147.30 | 167.98 | 229.73 | 499.62 | 771.31 | 1011.95 | 1205.68 |
| 2024-08-25 | 305.51 | 120.02 | 132.72 | 155.31 | 207.94 | 445.03 | 640.50 | 792.00 | 1254.20 |
| 2024-09-01 | 466.34 | 147.29 | 181.97 | 223.18 | 304.61 | 725.47 | 1125.34 | 1376.71 | 1782.83 |
| 2024-09-08 | 406.59 | 153.68 | 181.17 | 217.67 | 298.91 | 603.20 | 917.13 | 1173.12 | 1587.65 |
| 2024-09-15 | 375.54 | 157.41 | 168.82 | 195.04 | 269.74 | 534.05 | 732.11 | 1001.15 | 1300.18 |
| 2024-09-22 | 378.90 | 125.47 | 148.55 | 185.09 | 267.87 | 612.35 | 890.88 | 1271.06 | 1471.12 |
| 2024-09-29 | 432.48 | 165.49 | 196.93 | 230.62 | 294.94 | 698.77 | 1076.24 | 1386.86 | 1739.42 |
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