Prediction 3657

Dengue Sprint2425 Python Temporal Quantitative Weekly ADM 1

Model Dengue oracle - M1
Author Eduardo Correa Araujo
ADM 1 Mato Grosso do Sul

Description:

Validation test 2 for sprint 2025 preds in MS


Show Table
date pred lower_95 lower_90 lower_80 lower_50 upper_50 upper_80 upper_90 upper_95
2023-10-08 134.11 40.41 45.91 58.25 82.17 257.50 478.99 781.70 1089.43
2023-10-15 161.16 35.30 42.30 57.03 89.54 303.96 523.28 825.63 1141.42
2023-10-22 158.82 35.13 45.84 61.63 96.29 271.47 465.67 645.23 956.30
2023-10-29 177.74 46.13 57.70 68.77 110.09 306.53 543.72 822.30 1014.69
2023-11-05 256.61 69.66 91.39 112.87 160.47 432.18 762.78 1122.66 1570.78
2023-11-12 213.74 59.69 73.53 89.02 134.96 384.94 640.75 896.30 1270.32
2023-11-19 290.26 75.20 90.05 121.90 179.22 589.27 1001.74 1619.09 3178.88
2023-11-26 330.82 86.34 100.93 131.18 199.24 617.07 1163.98 1739.35 2666.41
2023-12-03 406.21 90.53 115.50 154.80 225.80 813.72 1651.52 2402.84 4574.40
2023-12-10 466.71 94.56 111.95 149.54 266.89 897.90 1930.08 3536.46 5377.94
2023-12-17 284.24 64.64 78.09 108.01 161.73 480.75 1001.13 1585.37 3393.01
2023-12-24 144.24 40.26 47.70 60.03 93.30 269.27 473.35 713.20 983.10
2023-12-31 571.21 177.52 198.64 251.33 364.76 914.24 1629.51 2423.97 3055.45
2024-01-07 716.58 252.00 293.78 335.43 477.79 1201.15 2167.04 3115.11 4573.78
2024-01-14 807.23 303.23 350.85 431.53 571.75 1280.98 2274.01 3153.81 4083.55
2024-01-21 1026.97 377.05 428.28 507.95 661.80 1640.02 2640.67 3563.41 4636.72
2024-01-28 1110.13 403.86 423.12 488.17 726.39 1880.02 3112.28 4315.12 5094.76
2024-02-04 1222.58 445.48 544.99 631.08 855.66 1896.99 2865.35 4114.80 5411.28
2024-02-11 1298.02 531.31 597.60 705.50 925.07 1841.63 2759.14 3844.50 5482.90
2024-02-18 1244.53 474.83 562.28 662.50 883.73 1825.70 2675.99 3315.79 4325.32
2024-02-25 1532.69 556.89 662.99 768.57 1074.51 2332.42 3261.30 4514.79 5588.83
2024-03-03 1544.14 606.44 693.74 838.66 1108.22 2193.16 3432.76 4208.34 5892.52
2024-03-10 1787.91 825.15 886.85 1006.45 1303.63 2538.48 3534.54 4384.25 5571.39
2024-03-17 1877.71 756.63 853.62 1036.62 1304.94 2616.05 3560.62 4449.93 5527.44
2024-03-24 1787.80 778.61 919.57 1036.82 1371.78 2569.83 3731.61 4468.08 5216.78
2024-03-31 1871.30 832.84 1025.12 1146.78 1442.13 2627.49 3876.31 4727.44 6313.42
2024-04-07 1873.41 844.72 968.39 1102.77 1398.14 2844.21 3922.34 5475.09 6651.95
2024-04-14 1867.36 806.54 908.83 1043.54 1379.19 2804.32 3866.09 4810.40 5560.58
2024-04-21 1854.90 838.24 943.87 1094.90 1419.48 2570.85 3658.46 4886.69 5844.21
2024-04-28 1942.16 849.01 931.54 1115.93 1430.75 2553.71 3685.03 4355.45 5684.50
2024-05-05 1739.91 778.09 888.32 1014.53 1294.77 2354.89 3549.31 4323.07 5205.85
2024-05-12 1440.93 635.53 694.26 800.04 1046.16 1918.84 2667.37 3430.06 4215.31
2024-05-19 1207.21 536.85 609.19 717.09 894.02 1761.36 2423.14 2926.51 3509.90
2024-05-26 1055.57 456.33 510.32 622.88 786.12 1541.65 2184.64 2620.84 3369.69
2024-06-02 876.05 403.42 437.25 508.41 644.09 1258.12 1776.24 2205.36 2904.63
2024-06-09 712.55 322.67 357.39 419.55 535.50 1058.84 1469.85 1765.66 2318.21
2024-06-16 589.83 249.45 274.68 331.29 438.41 837.29 1239.75 1744.04 2075.10
2024-06-23 500.26 205.24 232.86 280.07 359.73 752.20 1072.19 1509.15 1826.12
2024-06-30 420.84 176.15 199.08 231.98 299.00 594.00 853.12 1009.97 1277.74
2024-07-07 367.98 152.32 165.30 188.88 250.33 532.61 772.79 960.01 1279.87
2024-07-14 296.90 107.83 131.43 154.77 204.90 472.10 720.70 916.01 1099.36
2024-07-21 253.31 115.32 130.03 146.76 190.59 395.52 576.21 703.55 813.22
2024-07-28 237.84 92.44 104.39 122.28 167.35 362.35 564.88 773.43 983.28
2024-08-04 183.23 71.25 79.61 95.67 130.13 272.56 434.61 569.17 705.60
2024-08-11 193.19 67.35 79.84 90.84 122.37 288.18 456.02 605.76 937.73
2024-08-18 163.94 56.48 64.48 74.13 106.51 245.80 393.04 483.77 592.71
2024-08-25 129.24 43.23 54.09 65.03 86.14 208.82 314.71 412.45 606.41
2024-09-01 144.68 45.78 53.54 62.89 93.32 240.20 381.19 472.57 655.78
2024-09-08 170.13 52.90 62.07 80.35 112.39 272.63 406.46 631.02 817.79
2024-09-15 154.13 42.38 56.18 70.58 101.88 243.01 370.08 488.86 630.51
2024-09-22 158.86 49.96 61.31 74.71 105.69 255.01 388.44 515.36 760.74
2024-09-29 165.32 48.97 59.60 72.62 104.24 278.85 467.08 604.18 825.08
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