Prediction 3665
| Model | Dengue oracle - M1 |
|---|---|
| Author | Eduardo Correa Araujo |
| ADM 1 | Acre |
Description:
Validation test 1 for sprint 2025 preds in AC
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-09 | 34.11 | 3.78 | 5.19 | 8.41 | 15.97 | 72.80 | 165.40 | 261.29 | 366.69 |
| 2022-10-16 | 40.98 | 5.69 | 7.30 | 11.00 | 19.18 | 84.11 | 181.21 | 290.24 | 378.03 |
| 2022-10-23 | 50.93 | 4.35 | 5.92 | 11.09 | 22.56 | 115.71 | 239.29 | 427.93 | 868.02 |
| 2022-10-30 | 45.34 | 4.72 | 6.57 | 9.95 | 19.56 | 112.09 | 244.69 | 385.22 | 506.02 |
| 2022-11-06 | 56.67 | 5.10 | 8.44 | 12.97 | 25.58 | 160.22 | 405.19 | 733.60 | 1245.28 |
| 2022-11-13 | 86.75 | 6.89 | 12.77 | 18.39 | 38.77 | 192.47 | 403.60 | 621.89 | 1028.90 |
| 2022-11-20 | 102.50 | 10.58 | 15.04 | 20.00 | 44.54 | 244.74 | 584.86 | 931.78 | 1562.46 |
| 2022-11-27 | 113.16 | 8.70 | 15.42 | 24.48 | 46.15 | 285.89 | 701.36 | 1395.88 | 2550.30 |
| 2022-12-04 | 144.15 | 10.77 | 19.88 | 28.26 | 54.87 | 404.94 | 945.01 | 1699.95 | 2549.63 |
| 2022-12-11 | 159.73 | 14.51 | 20.80 | 31.92 | 64.22 | 360.17 | 894.15 | 1495.66 | 1942.24 |
| 2022-12-18 | 93.28 | 9.88 | 13.60 | 21.09 | 42.61 | 229.06 | 536.02 | 920.88 | 1247.58 |
| 2022-12-25 | 66.51 | 5.19 | 7.12 | 12.35 | 25.06 | 180.47 | 400.40 | 725.07 | 1131.97 |
| 2023-01-01 | 201.86 | 28.37 | 39.59 | 55.62 | 102.70 | 433.17 | 771.59 | 1200.06 | 1974.49 |
| 2023-01-08 | 263.11 | 27.06 | 42.51 | 63.40 | 124.93 | 539.99 | 939.64 | 1516.09 | 2012.07 |
| 2023-01-15 | 249.46 | 32.14 | 43.62 | 68.90 | 129.72 | 514.34 | 999.10 | 1544.22 | 2030.14 |
| 2023-01-22 | 262.86 | 41.95 | 50.90 | 69.31 | 124.02 | 556.55 | 1181.89 | 1948.29 | 2606.55 |
| 2023-01-29 | 306.79 | 51.23 | 67.53 | 85.78 | 159.63 | 635.85 | 1231.90 | 1936.54 | 2400.90 |
| 2023-02-05 | 312.03 | 47.97 | 58.02 | 90.39 | 148.62 | 635.22 | 1339.64 | 1811.16 | 2093.18 |
| 2023-02-12 | 404.59 | 46.92 | 63.22 | 87.57 | 184.72 | 919.32 | 2022.80 | 3089.97 | 4344.92 |
| 2023-02-19 | 351.88 | 37.75 | 55.83 | 95.07 | 164.93 | 761.55 | 1437.96 | 2345.48 | 3205.60 |
| 2023-02-26 | 398.33 | 55.71 | 72.14 | 108.05 | 203.47 | 905.42 | 1855.92 | 2744.91 | 3475.80 |
| 2023-03-05 | 305.81 | 61.93 | 76.53 | 97.57 | 163.07 | 618.59 | 1269.47 | 1658.62 | 2517.12 |
| 2023-03-12 | 333.15 | 44.55 | 56.17 | 94.48 | 177.41 | 747.19 | 1432.43 | 2234.36 | 4238.08 |
| 2023-03-19 | 310.08 | 38.22 | 49.95 | 73.11 | 147.75 | 627.53 | 1131.85 | 1588.01 | 2358.31 |
| 2023-03-26 | 277.26 | 26.39 | 47.45 | 60.81 | 127.52 | 600.76 | 1124.34 | 1645.08 | 2464.78 |
| 2023-04-02 | 226.65 | 29.96 | 42.75 | 65.62 | 118.83 | 474.01 | 1000.53 | 1451.92 | 2392.97 |
| 2023-04-09 | 228.57 | 26.70 | 37.39 | 59.13 | 113.72 | 490.62 | 930.57 | 1443.06 | 2194.45 |
| 2023-04-16 | 231.90 | 30.01 | 45.32 | 63.32 | 113.30 | 483.45 | 996.84 | 1371.72 | 2277.04 |
| 2023-04-23 | 289.01 | 28.82 | 39.24 | 58.22 | 114.94 | 622.04 | 1478.74 | 2389.60 | 3344.57 |
| 2023-04-30 | 284.86 | 43.41 | 55.40 | 76.24 | 138.09 | 539.06 | 1303.81 | 1971.51 | 2432.86 |
| 2023-05-07 | 260.09 | 36.34 | 46.74 | 60.65 | 121.11 | 559.68 | 1040.62 | 1527.09 | 2727.06 |
| 2023-05-14 | 213.86 | 27.71 | 41.14 | 53.71 | 104.76 | 405.63 | 841.36 | 1239.44 | 1802.87 |
| 2023-05-21 | 160.87 | 28.18 | 34.31 | 44.40 | 77.99 | 353.34 | 784.33 | 1570.75 | 2317.64 |
| 2023-05-28 | 155.59 | 23.83 | 29.19 | 41.87 | 81.00 | 370.09 | 716.73 | 1045.38 | 1704.23 |
| 2023-06-04 | 127.35 | 13.08 | 19.41 | 28.16 | 56.78 | 291.69 | 671.16 | 1095.23 | 1605.15 |
| 2023-06-11 | 111.66 | 16.77 | 21.27 | 29.00 | 55.85 | 220.43 | 427.15 | 594.43 | 815.59 |
| 2023-06-18 | 89.20 | 14.80 | 18.98 | 26.64 | 43.66 | 193.35 | 341.13 | 497.23 | 652.94 |
| 2023-06-25 | 82.64 | 11.31 | 17.18 | 23.28 | 40.65 | 173.46 | 322.14 | 475.53 | 763.27 |
| 2023-07-02 | 67.58 | 9.06 | 12.01 | 18.40 | 31.40 | 147.61 | 350.78 | 524.45 | 1113.62 |
| 2023-07-09 | 66.88 | 9.70 | 13.08 | 19.06 | 34.48 | 132.36 | 266.88 | 440.55 | 646.45 |
| 2023-07-16 | 52.20 | 7.23 | 10.08 | 14.13 | 23.44 | 121.29 | 251.31 | 391.84 | 499.67 |
| 2023-07-23 | 51.96 | 6.98 | 9.44 | 13.49 | 25.66 | 105.13 | 199.87 | 288.91 | 415.76 |
| 2023-07-30 | 52.11 | 4.49 | 6.24 | 10.94 | 23.82 | 120.04 | 266.38 | 465.58 | 784.52 |
| 2023-08-06 | 47.50 | 7.60 | 10.36 | 13.70 | 24.27 | 103.85 | 236.91 | 417.79 | 624.49 |
| 2023-08-13 | 42.93 | 5.39 | 8.22 | 11.89 | 20.91 | 99.25 | 211.52 | 313.47 | 441.32 |
| 2023-08-20 | 37.44 | 5.99 | 8.62 | 11.18 | 20.74 | 76.92 | 153.00 | 239.68 | 324.22 |
| 2023-08-27 | 43.65 | 4.65 | 6.49 | 9.83 | 20.33 | 101.46 | 240.29 | 415.97 | 577.00 |
| 2023-09-03 | 35.14 | 3.69 | 5.01 | 7.28 | 15.94 | 84.58 | 178.91 | 299.12 | 475.11 |
| 2023-09-10 | 35.95 | 3.89 | 5.44 | 7.82 | 15.92 | 92.51 | 225.66 | 363.07 | 537.96 |
| 2023-09-17 | 43.33 | 3.05 | 4.25 | 6.30 | 18.34 | 110.35 | 272.14 | 422.93 | 802.06 |
| 2023-09-24 | 46.37 | 4.86 | 6.88 | 9.85 | 21.25 | 120.27 | 304.48 | 562.73 | 835.54 |
| 2023-10-01 | 41.53 | 4.61 | 6.75 | 9.79 | 18.71 | 96.21 | 198.06 | 292.80 | 425.33 |
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