Prediction 3666
Model | Dengue oracle - M1 |
---|---|
Author | Eduardo Correa Araujo |
ADM 1 | Acre |
Description:
Validation test 2 for sprint 2025 preds in AC
Show Table
date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2023-10-08 | 63.43 | 3.60 | 6.52 | 12.16 | 26.42 | 185.78 | 475.39 | 1031.29 | 1631.35 |
2023-10-15 | 74.17 | 6.69 | 9.47 | 12.30 | 26.90 | 205.00 | 432.89 | 795.13 | 1064.66 |
2023-10-22 | 85.61 | 6.19 | 8.74 | 13.17 | 30.19 | 223.91 | 626.42 | 1118.67 | 1775.39 |
2023-10-29 | 86.43 | 5.84 | 10.01 | 18.49 | 37.85 | 225.66 | 481.56 | 935.54 | 1605.76 |
2023-11-05 | 88.58 | 7.55 | 10.61 | 14.97 | 34.81 | 243.27 | 469.30 | 954.83 | 1496.91 |
2023-11-12 | 115.82 | 9.78 | 13.77 | 19.69 | 41.94 | 315.10 | 742.84 | 1464.22 | 2019.35 |
2023-11-19 | 112.46 | 11.89 | 18.89 | 25.50 | 45.17 | 282.22 | 796.94 | 1197.27 | 1922.55 |
2023-11-26 | 171.97 | 10.88 | 15.83 | 29.31 | 62.65 | 505.76 | 1278.13 | 2388.37 | 4367.20 |
2023-12-03 | 136.66 | 9.65 | 14.72 | 22.52 | 55.43 | 422.22 | 1194.83 | 1923.30 | 3187.85 |
2023-12-10 | 135.20 | 8.38 | 14.84 | 22.72 | 51.62 | 357.02 | 1030.41 | 1706.19 | 3680.77 |
2023-12-17 | 94.48 | 8.40 | 11.92 | 17.61 | 36.35 | 257.63 | 682.95 | 1372.11 | 2244.63 |
2023-12-24 | 72.15 | 6.55 | 7.91 | 14.67 | 32.83 | 172.99 | 495.73 | 880.24 | 1347.71 |
2023-12-31 | 269.76 | 30.67 | 44.79 | 61.88 | 117.74 | 578.62 | 1382.45 | 2076.29 | 3151.09 |
2024-01-07 | 287.53 | 29.81 | 44.41 | 66.84 | 135.35 | 654.72 | 1557.24 | 2280.01 | 3057.83 |
2024-01-14 | 311.44 | 37.68 | 62.77 | 82.53 | 153.14 | 694.57 | 1271.44 | 1810.19 | 2541.15 |
2024-01-21 | 278.55 | 38.31 | 53.31 | 76.47 | 138.04 | 556.81 | 1046.61 | 1580.82 | 2035.10 |
2024-01-28 | 341.13 | 66.60 | 78.09 | 102.87 | 174.68 | 654.01 | 1102.22 | 1569.95 | 2312.75 |
2024-02-04 | 333.90 | 61.01 | 77.32 | 100.99 | 169.47 | 652.54 | 1166.19 | 1691.17 | 2067.73 |
2024-02-11 | 345.19 | 62.20 | 73.82 | 94.97 | 186.05 | 659.19 | 1054.79 | 1572.75 | 1949.96 |
2024-02-18 | 279.48 | 52.00 | 67.59 | 100.91 | 150.97 | 534.03 | 1020.31 | 1468.83 | 2010.32 |
2024-02-25 | 313.91 | 58.08 | 76.84 | 107.84 | 185.79 | 567.78 | 936.22 | 1290.95 | 1829.72 |
2024-03-03 | 322.30 | 64.73 | 75.10 | 103.66 | 171.37 | 564.19 | 1113.98 | 1702.61 | 2291.43 |
2024-03-10 | 358.18 | 53.16 | 71.21 | 108.24 | 195.10 | 723.75 | 1529.55 | 2396.79 | 3809.60 |
2024-03-17 | 318.11 | 46.62 | 62.89 | 90.92 | 163.98 | 586.68 | 1169.81 | 1683.68 | 2469.34 |
2024-03-24 | 274.13 | 39.83 | 50.52 | 76.36 | 144.52 | 530.70 | 1111.48 | 1797.96 | 2303.89 |
2024-03-31 | 267.08 | 42.86 | 48.92 | 74.99 | 136.14 | 493.08 | 996.28 | 1610.71 | 2351.89 |
2024-04-07 | 290.08 | 48.78 | 61.08 | 77.64 | 140.87 | 606.70 | 1336.18 | 2035.55 | 2941.24 |
2024-04-14 | 278.64 | 39.13 | 56.15 | 75.29 | 142.77 | 541.75 | 950.18 | 1643.94 | 2309.91 |
2024-04-21 | 235.91 | 38.61 | 52.98 | 64.77 | 113.19 | 450.48 | 889.19 | 1562.98 | 2028.59 |
2024-04-28 | 230.58 | 43.14 | 57.62 | 78.52 | 125.78 | 439.36 | 826.24 | 1298.70 | 1950.87 |
2024-05-05 | 246.10 | 36.86 | 54.13 | 73.01 | 122.03 | 477.53 | 911.21 | 1426.37 | 2209.99 |
2024-05-12 | 193.89 | 32.94 | 42.35 | 56.07 | 98.20 | 386.56 | 766.83 | 1042.20 | 1634.68 |
2024-05-19 | 170.18 | 26.15 | 32.91 | 51.44 | 84.14 | 348.84 | 705.31 | 1068.41 | 1597.09 |
2024-05-26 | 163.45 | 27.08 | 34.65 | 46.19 | 85.42 | 339.26 | 696.34 | 976.08 | 1548.92 |
2024-06-02 | 125.78 | 15.10 | 20.01 | 32.39 | 61.42 | 246.74 | 508.94 | 766.69 | 1196.69 |
2024-06-09 | 115.29 | 20.15 | 24.54 | 34.37 | 57.70 | 233.62 | 487.04 | 695.62 | 1009.67 |
2024-06-16 | 83.72 | 12.10 | 15.41 | 23.25 | 45.82 | 181.85 | 335.43 | 477.50 | 733.83 |
2024-06-23 | 85.18 | 12.63 | 15.89 | 22.26 | 41.26 | 189.29 | 391.88 | 536.33 | 696.84 |
2024-06-30 | 82.51 | 10.87 | 15.58 | 22.26 | 39.77 | 202.03 | 370.61 | 648.16 | 1021.82 |
2024-07-07 | 79.39 | 12.49 | 15.35 | 20.75 | 39.53 | 152.48 | 289.77 | 429.24 | 711.77 |
2024-07-14 | 73.14 | 9.74 | 13.56 | 18.19 | 37.38 | 141.50 | 274.88 | 446.67 | 670.26 |
2024-07-21 | 65.33 | 8.81 | 13.09 | 18.01 | 31.21 | 144.23 | 311.32 | 482.57 | 803.27 |
2024-07-28 | 78.97 | 10.32 | 13.13 | 19.44 | 36.32 | 169.63 | 401.36 | 632.91 | 1254.11 |
2024-08-04 | 69.61 | 8.15 | 11.69 | 16.84 | 33.75 | 154.56 | 327.12 | 450.34 | 601.95 |
2024-08-11 | 53.80 | 5.72 | 9.74 | 14.06 | 26.71 | 111.50 | 273.83 | 427.06 | 668.61 |
2024-08-18 | 61.64 | 7.58 | 10.97 | 14.19 | 28.28 | 132.43 | 296.19 | 554.34 | 829.60 |
2024-08-25 | 47.32 | 6.74 | 8.38 | 13.33 | 24.13 | 110.06 | 231.04 | 365.21 | 569.50 |
2024-09-01 | 37.81 | 4.53 | 5.94 | 8.23 | 17.67 | 99.37 | 220.36 | 339.35 | 635.14 |
2024-09-08 | 48.64 | 4.44 | 6.68 | 10.16 | 21.56 | 100.51 | 287.56 | 452.53 | 682.41 |
2024-09-15 | 56.82 | 6.13 | 9.29 | 13.18 | 25.39 | 141.68 | 311.93 | 484.18 | 763.42 |
2024-09-22 | 53.13 | 5.39 | 7.76 | 12.51 | 23.06 | 121.75 | 211.68 | 318.08 | 547.07 |
2024-09-29 | 56.04 | 6.35 | 9.70 | 13.90 | 28.20 | 124.52 | 266.83 | 406.57 | 644.76 |