Prediction 3699
| Model | Dengue oracle - M2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Eduardo Correa Araujo |
| ADM 1 | Rio de Janeiro |
Description:
Validation test 2 for sprint 2025 preds in RJ
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 233.50 | 73.39 | 94.31 | 115.57 | 173.85 | 339.37 | 547.73 | 683.69 | 806.44 |
| 2023-10-15 | 226.57 | 60.40 | 80.36 | 94.79 | 141.66 | 355.83 | 540.28 | 886.55 | 1171.86 |
| 2023-10-22 | 213.75 | 76.51 | 89.40 | 109.44 | 148.40 | 321.61 | 455.53 | 594.38 | 796.28 |
| 2023-10-29 | 224.57 | 76.08 | 95.11 | 117.36 | 150.76 | 327.75 | 477.49 | 649.09 | 799.87 |
| 2023-11-05 | 281.15 | 76.84 | 91.72 | 122.10 | 178.99 | 414.95 | 627.10 | 834.76 | 1201.10 |
| 2023-11-12 | 278.16 | 89.97 | 109.68 | 134.02 | 194.20 | 434.81 | 642.36 | 878.15 | 1071.69 |
| 2023-11-19 | 290.67 | 122.26 | 140.85 | 163.71 | 212.37 | 447.69 | 619.39 | 820.84 | 1095.34 |
| 2023-11-26 | 332.72 | 122.57 | 136.97 | 171.89 | 233.22 | 516.86 | 748.83 | 1009.70 | 1347.60 |
| 2023-12-03 | 428.35 | 153.48 | 175.66 | 205.97 | 276.59 | 647.56 | 943.73 | 1329.00 | 1676.12 |
| 2023-12-10 | 442.72 | 168.32 | 189.35 | 232.79 | 322.02 | 644.95 | 1103.54 | 1587.69 | 2141.65 |
| 2023-12-17 | 419.98 | 133.39 | 160.99 | 187.58 | 270.95 | 706.78 | 1108.66 | 1561.99 | 2317.68 |
| 2023-12-24 | 605.83 | 168.08 | 189.41 | 221.30 | 375.57 | 1006.50 | 1697.56 | 2294.60 | 4445.30 |
| 2023-12-31 | 1431.77 | 395.31 | 499.14 | 640.53 | 882.11 | 2210.35 | 3135.31 | 4428.50 | 6063.70 |
| 2024-01-07 | 1817.24 | 469.15 | 600.57 | 771.71 | 1220.73 | 2883.77 | 4629.15 | 6164.07 | 7817.75 |
| 2024-01-14 | 2392.00 | 692.76 | 814.98 | 997.32 | 1468.36 | 3941.80 | 6831.44 | 12128.87 | 15647.78 |
| 2024-01-21 | 2948.18 | 838.67 | 937.95 | 1158.03 | 1858.61 | 5402.45 | 9360.89 | 14121.99 | 23353.93 |
| 2024-01-28 | 3558.14 | 1167.65 | 1469.38 | 1736.45 | 2466.23 | 5611.43 | 9147.31 | 11946.62 | 16093.62 |
| 2024-02-04 | 4357.98 | 1372.43 | 1620.31 | 2056.33 | 2912.87 | 6886.93 | 11560.41 | 14782.17 | 20571.52 |
| 2024-02-11 | 4322.50 | 1738.42 | 1895.60 | 2176.74 | 2990.52 | 6380.44 | 9046.12 | 10854.02 | 13827.42 |
| 2024-02-18 | 4723.83 | 1835.46 | 2065.05 | 2455.81 | 3364.48 | 6799.10 | 10335.58 | 12172.49 | 14261.38 |
| 2024-02-25 | 5060.05 | 2322.11 | 2638.75 | 3038.03 | 3819.68 | 6927.51 | 9811.06 | 12307.31 | 14656.64 |
| 2024-03-03 | 5754.60 | 2724.43 | 2918.04 | 3562.87 | 4442.11 | 7538.29 | 9977.96 | 11853.72 | 13477.88 |
| 2024-03-10 | 6570.97 | 3366.81 | 3708.84 | 4212.40 | 5229.78 | 8278.65 | 10633.12 | 12838.95 | 15031.72 |
| 2024-03-17 | 8140.08 | 4364.02 | 4536.31 | 5405.22 | 6593.72 | 10376.32 | 12783.37 | 14063.84 | 16270.51 |
| 2024-03-24 | 8290.27 | 4457.99 | 4786.69 | 5395.03 | 6679.78 | 10089.78 | 12943.45 | 16135.86 | 18595.41 |
| 2024-03-31 | 9742.61 | 5322.13 | 5868.33 | 6623.47 | 8072.02 | 11817.87 | 14247.42 | 16200.26 | 18193.85 |
| 2024-04-07 | 10243.75 | 5722.01 | 6303.71 | 7060.34 | 8306.62 | 12561.98 | 15812.26 | 18842.40 | 21295.24 |
| 2024-04-14 | 10707.06 | 5636.74 | 6555.22 | 7491.99 | 8852.11 | 13418.00 | 16233.69 | 19042.91 | 21534.25 |
| 2024-04-21 | 11311.18 | 6625.91 | 7201.31 | 7676.98 | 9248.29 | 14036.18 | 17520.50 | 19081.42 | 23056.19 |
| 2024-04-28 | 12113.50 | 6654.88 | 7066.78 | 7969.04 | 9532.72 | 14733.50 | 18293.25 | 21626.20 | 26292.60 |
| 2024-05-05 | 12475.68 | 6996.91 | 7719.90 | 8676.27 | 10113.10 | 15226.81 | 18266.48 | 20970.14 | 24263.46 |
| 2024-05-12 | 12409.28 | 6045.53 | 6725.18 | 7876.01 | 9791.44 | 15567.93 | 20158.18 | 22664.94 | 24716.61 |
| 2024-05-19 | 9566.51 | 4576.30 | 5109.81 | 5938.43 | 7371.19 | 12093.94 | 15440.63 | 17743.31 | 20215.25 |
| 2024-05-26 | 7257.33 | 3685.05 | 4138.51 | 4616.96 | 5653.37 | 9791.47 | 13227.08 | 14830.02 | 16572.48 |
| 2024-06-02 | 5709.99 | 2953.13 | 3398.92 | 3658.79 | 4476.25 | 7579.94 | 10238.25 | 11714.23 | 12926.60 |
| 2024-06-09 | 4106.60 | 2167.09 | 2380.83 | 2619.52 | 3267.59 | 5593.66 | 7580.01 | 8843.22 | 11526.74 |
| 2024-06-16 | 3584.26 | 1578.33 | 1732.03 | 1911.84 | 2511.57 | 4852.98 | 6936.73 | 8513.63 | 10283.78 |
| 2024-06-23 | 2739.72 | 1062.84 | 1188.98 | 1445.36 | 1921.82 | 3773.17 | 5682.71 | 7047.13 | 8159.45 |
| 2024-06-30 | 1811.11 | 706.09 | 798.46 | 921.54 | 1236.74 | 2776.47 | 4090.24 | 5513.29 | 7434.70 |
| 2024-07-07 | 1374.68 | 447.89 | 549.77 | 691.36 | 936.78 | 1877.32 | 2805.04 | 3664.25 | 4437.19 |
| 2024-07-14 | 1095.31 | 350.59 | 421.64 | 502.79 | 755.98 | 1633.73 | 2507.06 | 3516.60 | 4631.85 |
| 2024-07-21 | 846.61 | 289.79 | 322.39 | 425.00 | 566.31 | 1312.70 | 2078.87 | 2873.85 | 3550.33 |
| 2024-07-28 | 728.51 | 218.63 | 282.22 | 324.97 | 461.41 | 1167.23 | 1950.93 | 2696.63 | 3267.63 |
| 2024-08-04 | 600.51 | 214.23 | 238.78 | 289.01 | 398.36 | 933.27 | 1511.24 | 2188.03 | 2687.62 |
| 2024-08-11 | 565.93 | 181.52 | 220.28 | 261.61 | 388.02 | 865.46 | 1353.64 | 1729.46 | 2528.77 |
| 2024-08-18 | 469.28 | 150.86 | 188.66 | 229.89 | 295.72 | 741.17 | 1182.03 | 1558.25 | 2157.88 |
| 2024-08-25 | 404.22 | 132.06 | 157.50 | 193.76 | 270.49 | 656.10 | 958.02 | 1262.67 | 1687.19 |
| 2024-09-01 | 388.90 | 133.85 | 150.39 | 184.50 | 266.76 | 589.06 | 858.85 | 1215.00 | 1507.15 |
| 2024-09-08 | 441.32 | 152.00 | 165.15 | 203.01 | 287.75 | 698.61 | 1095.21 | 1464.55 | 1887.35 |
| 2024-09-15 | 455.20 | 153.37 | 194.08 | 228.51 | 322.54 | 749.98 | 1121.83 | 1491.26 | 1888.89 |
| 2024-09-22 | 371.96 | 135.37 | 161.78 | 187.17 | 266.21 | 623.10 | 1069.15 | 1570.49 | 2058.73 |
| 2024-09-29 | 443.10 | 160.72 | 185.94 | 210.29 | 301.85 | 653.14 | 1077.75 | 1459.87 | 1940.91 |
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