Prediction 4128
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Alagoas |
Description:
Validation test 1 for UF=AL (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-09 | 840.0 | 296.0 | 355.0 | 434.0 | 598.0 | 1165.0 | 1554.0 | 1841.0 | 2131.0 |
| 2022-10-16 | 879.0 | 303.0 | 365.0 | 448.0 | 622.0 | 1229.0 | 1648.0 | 1961.0 | 2277.0 |
| 2022-10-23 | 766.0 | 249.0 | 304.0 | 378.0 | 534.0 | 1084.0 | 1469.0 | 1756.0 | 2048.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | 762.0 | 241.0 | 296.0 | 370.0 | 526.0 | 1086.0 | 1482.0 | 1778.0 | 2081.0 |
| 2022-11-06 | 757.0 | 232.0 | 287.0 | 361.0 | 519.0 | 1088.0 | 1493.0 | 1799.0 | 2111.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | 729.0 | 215.0 | 268.0 | 341.0 | 494.0 | 1056.0 | 1459.0 | 1765.0 | 2079.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | 674.0 | 189.0 | 239.0 | 307.0 | 452.0 | 986.0 | 1373.0 | 1668.0 | 1971.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | 656.0 | 178.0 | 226.0 | 293.0 | 436.0 | 967.0 | 1356.0 | 1653.0 | 1959.0 |
| 2022-12-04 | 647.0 | 170.0 | 218.0 | 284.0 | 426.0 | 961.0 | 1354.0 | 1656.0 | 1968.0 |
| 2022-12-11 | 625.0 | 158.0 | 204.0 | 269.0 | 408.0 | 935.0 | 1326.0 | 1628.0 | 1940.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | 529.0 | 120.0 | 161.0 | 217.0 | 338.0 | 802.0 | 1149.0 | 1418.0 | 1697.0 |
| 2022-12-25 | 466.0 | 95.0 | 132.0 | 182.0 | 292.0 | 716.0 | 1035.0 | 1283.0 | 1541.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | 554.0 | 122.0 | 164.0 | 223.0 | 351.0 | 848.0 | 1224.0 | 1517.0 | 1823.0 |
| 2023-01-08 | 597.0 | 134.0 | 178.0 | 241.0 | 378.0 | 915.0 | 1325.0 | 1645.0 | 1980.0 |
| 2023-01-15 | 592.0 | 129.0 | 173.0 | 236.0 | 373.0 | 913.0 | 1327.0 | 1652.0 | 1993.0 |
| 2023-01-22 | 565.0 | 117.0 | 160.0 | 220.0 | 353.0 | 878.0 | 1284.0 | 1603.0 | 1939.0 |
| 2023-01-29 | 563.0 | 114.0 | 156.0 | 216.0 | 349.0 | 880.0 | 1291.0 | 1616.0 | 1959.0 |
| 2023-02-05 | 619.0 | 129.0 | 175.0 | 240.0 | 385.0 | 966.0 | 1419.0 | 1778.0 | 2158.0 |
| 2023-02-12 | 618.0 | 126.0 | 172.0 | 237.0 | 382.0 | 969.0 | 1429.0 | 1795.0 | 2182.0 |
| 2023-02-19 | 600.0 | 118.0 | 163.0 | 226.0 | 368.0 | 946.0 | 1402.0 | 1766.0 | 2151.0 |
| 2023-02-26 | 635.0 | 126.0 | 173.0 | 240.0 | 390.0 | 1002.0 | 1488.0 | 1876.0 | 2289.0 |
| 2023-03-05 | 630.0 | 122.0 | 169.0 | 235.0 | 385.0 | 1000.0 | 1491.0 | 1883.0 | 2302.0 |
| 2023-03-12 | 613.0 | 115.0 | 160.0 | 225.0 | 372.0 | 978.0 | 1463.0 | 1853.0 | 2269.0 |
| 2023-03-19 | 633.0 | 118.0 | 165.0 | 232.0 | 383.0 | 1011.0 | 1517.0 | 1924.0 | 2359.0 |
| 2023-03-26 | 642.0 | 119.0 | 166.0 | 234.0 | 388.0 | 1030.0 | 1550.0 | 1969.0 | 2417.0 |
| 2023-04-02 | 712.0 | 137.0 | 189.0 | 263.0 | 432.0 | 1140.0 | 1716.0 | 2181.0 | 2680.0 |
| 2023-04-09 | 761.0 | 149.0 | 204.0 | 283.0 | 462.0 | 1220.0 | 1838.0 | 2338.0 | 2876.0 |
| 2023-04-16 | 868.0 | 178.0 | 239.0 | 328.0 | 530.0 | 1388.0 | 2091.0 | 2662.0 | 3277.0 |
| 2023-04-23 | 888.0 | 181.0 | 244.0 | 334.0 | 541.0 | 1424.0 | 2150.0 | 2741.0 | 3378.0 |
| 2023-04-30 | 973.0 | 202.0 | 270.0 | 368.0 | 594.0 | 1559.0 | 2356.0 | 3006.0 | 3707.0 |
| 2023-05-07 | 1024.0 | 214.0 | 285.0 | 388.0 | 625.0 | 1643.0 | 2487.0 | 3177.0 | 3923.0 |
| 2023-05-14 | 1091.0 | 230.0 | 306.0 | 414.0 | 666.0 | 1752.0 | 2656.0 | 3396.0 | 4198.0 |
| 2023-05-21 | 1020.0 | 208.0 | 279.0 | 382.0 | 618.0 | 1648.0 | 2507.0 | 3212.0 | 3977.0 |
| 2023-05-28 | 994.0 | 198.0 | 268.0 | 368.0 | 599.0 | 1610.0 | 2458.0 | 3154.0 | 3910.0 |
| 2023-06-04 | 983.0 | 193.0 | 262.0 | 361.0 | 591.0 | 1598.0 | 2446.0 | 3143.0 | 3902.0 |
| 2023-06-11 | 1010.0 | 198.0 | 268.0 | 370.0 | 606.0 | 1645.0 | 2521.0 | 3245.0 | 4031.0 |
| 2023-06-18 | 960.0 | 183.0 | 250.0 | 347.0 | 573.0 | 1571.0 | 2415.0 | 3114.0 | 3874.0 |
| 2023-06-25 | 907.0 | 165.0 | 229.0 | 321.0 | 536.0 | 1493.0 | 2307.0 | 2983.0 | 3720.0 |
| 2023-07-02 | 907.0 | 162.0 | 226.0 | 318.0 | 534.0 | 1499.0 | 2326.0 | 3013.0 | 3765.0 |
| 2023-07-09 | 924.0 | 164.0 | 228.0 | 322.0 | 542.0 | 1533.0 | 2386.0 | 3096.0 | 3875.0 |
| 2023-07-16 | 860.0 | 145.0 | 205.0 | 293.0 | 500.0 | 1437.0 | 2247.0 | 2924.0 | 3667.0 |
| 2023-07-23 | 795.0 | 126.0 | 182.0 | 264.0 | 457.0 | 1338.0 | 2103.0 | 2744.0 | 3449.0 |
| 2023-07-30 | 748.0 | 112.0 | 165.0 | 242.0 | 426.0 | 1267.0 | 2001.0 | 2618.0 | 3297.0 |
| 2023-08-06 | 697.0 | 97.0 | 147.0 | 219.0 | 392.0 | 1189.0 | 1887.0 | 2474.0 | 3123.0 |
| 2023-08-13 | 673.0 | 89.0 | 137.0 | 208.0 | 376.0 | 1155.0 | 1841.0 | 2419.0 | 3058.0 |
| 2023-08-20 | 621.0 | 75.0 | 120.0 | 185.0 | 343.0 | 1074.0 | 1720.0 | 2266.0 | 2872.0 |
| 2023-08-27 | 570.0 | 61.0 | 103.0 | 164.0 | 310.0 | 995.0 | 1602.0 | 2117.0 | 2689.0 |
| 2023-09-03 | 543.0 | 53.0 | 93.0 | 152.0 | 292.0 | 953.0 | 1542.0 | 2043.0 | 2599.0 |
| 2023-09-10 | 505.0 | 43.0 | 80.0 | 136.0 | 268.0 | 895.0 | 1455.0 | 1932.0 | 2463.0 |
| 2023-09-17 | 505.0 | 42.0 | 79.0 | 134.0 | 267.0 | 896.0 | 1462.0 | 1944.0 | 2482.0 |
| 2023-09-24 | 477.0 | 34.0 | 69.0 | 122.0 | 249.0 | 853.0 | 1399.0 | 1864.0 | 2384.0 |
| 2023-10-01 | 409.0 | 17.0 | 49.0 | 95.0 | 207.0 | 744.0 | 1230.0 | 1646.0 | 2111.0 |
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