Prediction 4131
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Bahia |
Description:
Validation test 1 for UF=BA (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-09 | 164.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 35.0 | 86.0 | 275.0 | 414.0 | 521.0 | 631.0 |
| 2022-10-16 | 166.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 34.0 | 86.0 | 280.0 | 424.0 | 536.0 | 652.0 |
| 2022-10-23 | 172.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 36.0 | 89.0 | 292.0 | 445.0 | 563.0 | 687.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | 177.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 37.0 | 91.0 | 302.0 | 462.0 | 587.0 | 717.0 |
| 2022-11-06 | 194.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 43.0 | 101.0 | 329.0 | 502.0 | 638.0 | 781.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | 201.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 45.0 | 105.0 | 342.0 | 524.0 | 668.0 | 818.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | 224.0 | 5.0 | 25.0 | 55.0 | 120.0 | 378.0 | 578.0 | 736.0 | 903.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | 241.0 | 8.0 | 30.0 | 61.0 | 130.0 | 405.0 | 620.0 | 791.0 | 971.0 |
| 2022-12-04 | 250.0 | 10.0 | 32.0 | 64.0 | 135.0 | 422.0 | 647.0 | 826.0 | 1016.0 |
| 2022-12-11 | 244.0 | 6.0 | 28.0 | 60.0 | 130.0 | 414.0 | 639.0 | 819.0 | 1009.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | 208.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 42.0 | 105.0 | 363.0 | 568.0 | 732.0 | 907.0 |
| 2022-12-25 | 172.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 24.0 | 80.0 | 311.0 | 495.0 | 643.0 | 801.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | 340.0 | 31.0 | 60.0 | 100.0 | 190.0 | 566.0 | 868.0 | 1111.0 | 1371.0 |
| 2023-01-08 | 405.0 | 49.0 | 82.0 | 128.0 | 232.0 | 668.0 | 1019.0 | 1303.0 | 1607.0 |
| 2023-01-15 | 471.0 | 67.0 | 104.0 | 156.0 | 274.0 | 772.0 | 1176.0 | 1502.0 | 1852.0 |
| 2023-01-22 | 546.0 | 87.0 | 129.0 | 187.0 | 322.0 | 889.0 | 1351.0 | 1726.0 | 2128.0 |
| 2023-01-29 | 670.0 | 121.0 | 170.0 | 241.0 | 401.0 | 1083.0 | 1641.0 | 2093.0 | 2580.0 |
| 2023-02-05 | 752.0 | 143.0 | 197.0 | 275.0 | 453.0 | 1212.0 | 1836.0 | 2344.0 | 2890.0 |
| 2023-02-12 | 909.0 | 185.0 | 249.0 | 341.0 | 553.0 | 1458.0 | 2205.0 | 2813.0 | 3470.0 |
| 2023-02-19 | 975.0 | 201.0 | 270.0 | 368.0 | 594.0 | 1566.0 | 2370.0 | 3027.0 | 3736.0 |
| 2023-02-26 | 1089.0 | 231.0 | 306.0 | 415.0 | 666.0 | 1747.0 | 2645.0 | 3380.0 | 4175.0 |
| 2023-03-05 | 1198.0 | 258.0 | 341.0 | 460.0 | 733.0 | 1920.0 | 2909.0 | 3719.0 | 4597.0 |
| 2023-03-12 | 1302.0 | 285.0 | 374.0 | 502.0 | 798.0 | 2088.0 | 3165.0 | 4049.0 | 5008.0 |
| 2023-03-19 | 1281.0 | 276.0 | 364.0 | 490.0 | 783.0 | 2059.0 | 3129.0 | 4008.0 | 4963.0 |
| 2023-03-26 | 1320.0 | 285.0 | 375.0 | 505.0 | 806.0 | 2126.0 | 3235.0 | 4148.0 | 5140.0 |
| 2023-04-02 | 1459.0 | 320.0 | 419.0 | 561.0 | 893.0 | 2348.0 | 3575.0 | 4586.0 | 5686.0 |
| 2023-04-09 | 1445.0 | 314.0 | 412.0 | 553.0 | 882.0 | 2331.0 | 3555.0 | 4566.0 | 5666.0 |
| 2023-04-16 | 1457.0 | 315.0 | 413.0 | 556.0 | 888.0 | 2355.0 | 3597.0 | 4623.0 | 5742.0 |
| 2023-04-23 | 1436.0 | 307.0 | 404.0 | 545.0 | 873.0 | 2325.0 | 3558.0 | 4578.0 | 5691.0 |
| 2023-04-30 | 1446.0 | 308.0 | 406.0 | 547.0 | 878.0 | 2345.0 | 3593.0 | 4627.0 | 5756.0 |
| 2023-05-07 | 1428.0 | 302.0 | 398.0 | 538.0 | 865.0 | 2320.0 | 3561.0 | 4591.0 | 5715.0 |
| 2023-05-14 | 1266.0 | 257.0 | 343.0 | 468.0 | 761.0 | 2066.0 | 3182.0 | 4108.0 | 5120.0 |
| 2023-05-21 | 1068.0 | 204.0 | 278.0 | 385.0 | 635.0 | 1755.0 | 2714.0 | 3510.0 | 4382.0 |
| 2023-05-28 | 983.0 | 181.0 | 249.0 | 348.0 | 581.0 | 1623.0 | 2517.0 | 3260.0 | 4074.0 |
| 2023-06-04 | 845.0 | 144.0 | 204.0 | 290.0 | 493.0 | 1405.0 | 2188.0 | 2841.0 | 3555.0 |
| 2023-06-11 | 678.0 | 100.0 | 149.0 | 221.0 | 388.0 | 1141.0 | 1789.0 | 2328.0 | 2920.0 |
| 2023-06-18 | 533.0 | 63.0 | 102.0 | 160.0 | 296.0 | 910.0 | 1440.0 | 1881.0 | 2365.0 |
| 2023-06-25 | 500.0 | 53.0 | 91.0 | 146.0 | 275.0 | 861.0 | 1367.0 | 1790.0 | 2255.0 |
| 2023-07-02 | 498.0 | 51.0 | 89.0 | 143.0 | 272.0 | 859.0 | 1368.0 | 1794.0 | 2263.0 |
| 2023-07-09 | 449.0 | 38.0 | 72.0 | 122.0 | 241.0 | 783.0 | 1254.0 | 1650.0 | 2085.0 |
| 2023-07-16 | 385.0 | 21.0 | 51.0 | 96.0 | 201.0 | 682.0 | 1102.0 | 1455.0 | 1844.0 |
| 2023-07-23 | 349.0 | 11.0 | 39.0 | 81.0 | 178.0 | 626.0 | 1019.0 | 1349.0 | 1713.0 |
| 2023-07-30 | 312.0 | 2.0 | 27.0 | 65.0 | 155.0 | 568.0 | 931.0 | 1237.0 | 1574.0 |
| 2023-08-06 | 276.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 50.0 | 131.0 | 510.0 | 843.0 | 1124.0 | 1434.0 |
| 2023-08-13 | 243.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 36.0 | 111.0 | 458.0 | 765.0 | 1023.0 | 1310.0 |
| 2023-08-20 | 226.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 29.0 | 100.0 | 431.0 | 724.0 | 972.0 | 1247.0 |
| 2023-08-27 | 205.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 87.0 | 399.0 | 675.0 | 909.0 | 1168.0 |
| 2023-09-03 | 194.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 80.0 | 381.0 | 649.0 | 876.0 | 1128.0 |
| 2023-09-10 | 185.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 74.0 | 366.0 | 626.0 | 847.0 | 1092.0 |
| 2023-09-17 | 174.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 67.0 | 350.0 | 602.0 | 816.0 | 1054.0 |
| 2023-09-24 | 173.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 66.0 | 348.0 | 600.0 | 814.0 | 1053.0 |
| 2023-10-01 | 159.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 57.0 | 326.0 | 566.0 | 770.0 | 998.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
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