Prediction 4132
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Ceará |
Description:
Validation test 1 for UF=CE (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-09 | 277.0 | 42.0 | 66.0 | 99.0 | 170.0 | 428.0 | 615.0 | 757.0 | 903.0 |
| 2022-10-16 | 253.0 | 30.0 | 53.0 | 84.0 | 150.0 | 398.0 | 578.0 | 715.0 | 857.0 |
| 2022-10-23 | 237.0 | 22.0 | 44.0 | 73.0 | 138.0 | 379.0 | 556.0 | 692.0 | 833.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | 248.0 | 24.0 | 46.0 | 77.0 | 144.0 | 397.0 | 586.0 | 731.0 | 881.0 |
| 2022-11-06 | 256.0 | 24.0 | 47.0 | 79.0 | 148.0 | 411.0 | 608.0 | 761.0 | 919.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | 246.0 | 19.0 | 41.0 | 72.0 | 139.0 | 399.0 | 595.0 | 747.0 | 906.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | 268.0 | 24.0 | 48.0 | 81.0 | 153.0 | 434.0 | 647.0 | 813.0 | 987.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | 265.0 | 22.0 | 45.0 | 78.0 | 150.0 | 432.0 | 647.0 | 816.0 | 993.0 |
| 2022-12-04 | 270.0 | 22.0 | 46.0 | 79.0 | 153.0 | 443.0 | 666.0 | 841.0 | 1025.0 |
| 2022-12-11 | 250.0 | 14.0 | 36.0 | 68.0 | 138.0 | 416.0 | 630.0 | 800.0 | 978.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | 208.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 46.0 | 108.0 | 355.0 | 547.0 | 698.0 | 858.0 |
| 2022-12-25 | 162.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 24.0 | 77.0 | 289.0 | 456.0 | 587.0 | 726.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | 253.0 | 11.0 | 34.0 | 66.0 | 137.0 | 427.0 | 654.0 | 834.0 | 1025.0 |
| 2023-01-08 | 288.0 | 21.0 | 46.0 | 81.0 | 160.0 | 480.0 | 733.0 | 934.0 | 1148.0 |
| 2023-01-15 | 351.0 | 39.0 | 68.0 | 109.0 | 201.0 | 576.0 | 874.0 | 1112.0 | 1365.0 |
| 2023-01-22 | 394.0 | 51.0 | 83.0 | 128.0 | 229.0 | 644.0 | 974.0 | 1238.0 | 1520.0 |
| 2023-01-29 | 489.0 | 78.0 | 116.0 | 170.0 | 291.0 | 789.0 | 1188.0 | 1507.0 | 1848.0 |
| 2023-02-05 | 549.0 | 95.0 | 136.0 | 195.0 | 329.0 | 882.0 | 1325.0 | 1682.0 | 2062.0 |
| 2023-02-12 | 645.0 | 122.0 | 169.0 | 237.0 | 391.0 | 1030.0 | 1545.0 | 1959.0 | 2402.0 |
| 2023-02-19 | 683.0 | 131.0 | 181.0 | 253.0 | 415.0 | 1091.0 | 1638.0 | 2079.0 | 2551.0 |
| 2023-02-26 | 785.0 | 160.0 | 216.0 | 297.0 | 480.0 | 1250.0 | 1874.0 | 2378.0 | 2918.0 |
| 2023-03-05 | 890.0 | 188.0 | 252.0 | 342.0 | 548.0 | 1413.0 | 2118.0 | 2687.0 | 3298.0 |
| 2023-03-12 | 999.0 | 218.0 | 288.0 | 389.0 | 617.0 | 1584.0 | 2372.0 | 3011.0 | 3697.0 |
| 2023-03-19 | 982.0 | 211.0 | 280.0 | 379.0 | 605.0 | 1562.0 | 2344.0 | 2979.0 | 3662.0 |
| 2023-03-26 | 1096.0 | 242.0 | 318.0 | 428.0 | 678.0 | 1740.0 | 2612.0 | 3320.0 | 4083.0 |
| 2023-04-02 | 1445.0 | 340.0 | 438.0 | 579.0 | 903.0 | 2282.0 | 3417.0 | 4339.0 | 5334.0 |
| 2023-04-09 | 1552.0 | 367.0 | 473.0 | 624.0 | 970.0 | 2451.0 | 3672.0 | 4667.0 | 5740.0 |
| 2023-04-16 | 1641.0 | 390.0 | 501.0 | 660.0 | 1025.0 | 2593.0 | 3888.0 | 4944.0 | 6084.0 |
| 2023-04-23 | 1682.0 | 399.0 | 512.0 | 675.0 | 1050.0 | 2661.0 | 3994.0 | 5084.0 | 6260.0 |
| 2023-04-30 | 1738.0 | 413.0 | 529.0 | 698.0 | 1085.0 | 2753.0 | 4137.0 | 5269.0 | 6493.0 |
| 2023-05-07 | 1779.0 | 422.0 | 541.0 | 713.0 | 1109.0 | 2820.0 | 4243.0 | 5407.0 | 6667.0 |
| 2023-05-14 | 1758.0 | 414.0 | 532.0 | 701.0 | 1093.0 | 2791.0 | 4205.0 | 5364.0 | 6618.0 |
| 2023-05-21 | 1560.0 | 357.0 | 462.0 | 614.0 | 965.0 | 2486.0 | 3756.0 | 4797.0 | 5926.0 |
| 2023-05-28 | 1385.0 | 307.0 | 402.0 | 537.0 | 851.0 | 2217.0 | 3359.0 | 4295.0 | 5311.0 |
| 2023-06-04 | 1293.0 | 281.0 | 369.0 | 497.0 | 792.0 | 2077.0 | 3153.0 | 4037.0 | 4996.0 |
| 2023-06-11 | 1161.0 | 244.0 | 323.0 | 439.0 | 706.0 | 1873.0 | 2851.0 | 3655.0 | 4528.0 |
| 2023-06-18 | 1032.0 | 207.0 | 279.0 | 383.0 | 623.0 | 1673.0 | 2555.0 | 3280.0 | 4068.0 |
| 2023-06-25 | 929.0 | 178.0 | 243.0 | 337.0 | 555.0 | 1514.0 | 2321.0 | 2987.0 | 3710.0 |
| 2023-07-02 | 876.0 | 162.0 | 224.0 | 313.0 | 521.0 | 1435.0 | 2207.0 | 2844.0 | 3538.0 |
| 2023-07-09 | 747.0 | 126.0 | 179.0 | 257.0 | 438.0 | 1235.0 | 1910.0 | 2467.0 | 3075.0 |
| 2023-07-16 | 664.0 | 103.0 | 151.0 | 221.0 | 384.0 | 1105.0 | 1718.0 | 2225.0 | 2778.0 |
| 2023-07-23 | 634.0 | 94.0 | 140.0 | 207.0 | 364.0 | 1061.0 | 1654.0 | 2145.0 | 2681.0 |
| 2023-07-30 | 576.0 | 77.0 | 120.0 | 182.0 | 327.0 | 971.0 | 1520.0 | 1975.0 | 2473.0 |
| 2023-08-06 | 523.0 | 63.0 | 102.0 | 159.0 | 293.0 | 888.0 | 1398.0 | 1821.0 | 2283.0 |
| 2023-08-13 | 472.0 | 49.0 | 85.0 | 137.0 | 260.0 | 809.0 | 1280.0 | 1671.0 | 2099.0 |
| 2023-08-20 | 403.0 | 30.0 | 62.0 | 108.0 | 216.0 | 701.0 | 1117.0 | 1464.0 | 1843.0 |
| 2023-08-27 | 337.0 | 13.0 | 40.0 | 80.0 | 174.0 | 596.0 | 959.0 | 1261.0 | 1593.0 |
| 2023-09-03 | 318.0 | 7.0 | 33.0 | 72.0 | 162.0 | 566.0 | 915.0 | 1206.0 | 1525.0 |
| 2023-09-10 | 278.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 55.0 | 136.0 | 504.0 | 821.0 | 1085.0 | 1376.0 |
| 2023-09-17 | 265.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 50.0 | 128.0 | 485.0 | 793.0 | 1050.0 | 1332.0 |
| 2023-09-24 | 225.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 33.0 | 103.0 | 420.0 | 695.0 | 924.0 | 1177.0 |
| 2023-10-01 | 211.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 27.0 | 94.0 | 398.0 | 662.0 | 883.0 | 1125.0 |
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Interval Bounds
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