Prediction 4133
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Distrito Federal |
Description:
Validation test 1 for UF=DF (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-09 | 275.0 | 44.0 | 68.0 | 101.0 | 170.0 | 421.0 | 601.0 | 738.0 | 877.0 |
| 2022-10-16 | 270.0 | 39.0 | 62.0 | 95.0 | 164.0 | 419.0 | 603.0 | 743.0 | 887.0 |
| 2022-10-23 | 257.0 | 31.0 | 54.0 | 85.0 | 153.0 | 405.0 | 589.0 | 729.0 | 875.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | 270.0 | 33.0 | 56.0 | 89.0 | 160.0 | 427.0 | 624.0 | 775.0 | 932.0 |
| 2022-11-06 | 271.0 | 30.0 | 54.0 | 87.0 | 158.0 | 431.0 | 635.0 | 792.0 | 956.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | 269.0 | 27.0 | 51.0 | 84.0 | 156.0 | 433.0 | 642.0 | 804.0 | 974.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | 278.0 | 27.0 | 52.0 | 86.0 | 160.0 | 449.0 | 668.0 | 840.0 | 1019.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | 283.0 | 27.0 | 52.0 | 86.0 | 162.0 | 461.0 | 690.0 | 869.0 | 1057.0 |
| 2022-12-04 | 323.0 | 38.0 | 65.0 | 103.0 | 187.0 | 522.0 | 781.0 | 985.0 | 1199.0 |
| 2022-12-11 | 334.0 | 39.0 | 67.0 | 106.0 | 193.0 | 542.0 | 814.0 | 1029.0 | 1256.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | 323.0 | 33.0 | 61.0 | 99.0 | 184.0 | 530.0 | 801.0 | 1016.0 | 1244.0 |
| 2022-12-25 | 309.0 | 27.0 | 53.0 | 90.0 | 173.0 | 511.0 | 779.0 | 992.0 | 1218.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | 458.0 | 71.0 | 106.0 | 157.0 | 271.0 | 740.0 | 1113.0 | 1411.0 | 1728.0 |
| 2023-01-08 | 464.0 | 70.0 | 106.0 | 157.0 | 273.0 | 752.0 | 1136.0 | 1445.0 | 1774.0 |
| 2023-01-15 | 518.0 | 83.0 | 123.0 | 179.0 | 307.0 | 838.0 | 1266.0 | 1612.0 | 1981.0 |
| 2023-01-22 | 562.0 | 94.0 | 136.0 | 197.0 | 334.0 | 911.0 | 1378.0 | 1757.0 | 2162.0 |
| 2023-01-29 | 643.0 | 115.0 | 162.0 | 230.0 | 385.0 | 1040.0 | 1574.0 | 2007.0 | 2473.0 |
| 2023-02-05 | 717.0 | 133.0 | 185.0 | 260.0 | 430.0 | 1158.0 | 1754.0 | 2240.0 | 2763.0 |
| 2023-02-12 | 757.0 | 141.0 | 196.0 | 274.0 | 454.0 | 1224.0 | 1860.0 | 2379.0 | 2939.0 |
| 2023-02-19 | 766.0 | 141.0 | 196.0 | 275.0 | 458.0 | 1244.0 | 1897.0 | 2431.0 | 3008.0 |
| 2023-02-26 | 867.0 | 166.0 | 228.0 | 316.0 | 521.0 | 1408.0 | 2148.0 | 2755.0 | 3413.0 |
| 2023-03-05 | 903.0 | 173.0 | 237.0 | 329.0 | 541.0 | 1470.0 | 2249.0 | 2890.0 | 3585.0 |
| 2023-03-12 | 963.0 | 186.0 | 254.0 | 351.0 | 577.0 | 1570.0 | 2407.0 | 3097.0 | 3847.0 |
| 2023-03-19 | 1002.0 | 194.0 | 263.0 | 364.0 | 599.0 | 1636.0 | 2515.0 | 3241.0 | 4032.0 |
| 2023-03-26 | 1030.0 | 198.0 | 270.0 | 373.0 | 615.0 | 1688.0 | 2601.0 | 3357.0 | 4183.0 |
| 2023-04-02 | 1127.0 | 221.0 | 298.0 | 410.0 | 673.0 | 1847.0 | 2851.0 | 3684.0 | 4595.0 |
| 2023-04-09 | 1251.0 | 250.0 | 335.0 | 458.0 | 749.0 | 2051.0 | 3169.0 | 4099.0 | 5118.0 |
| 2023-04-16 | 1219.0 | 238.0 | 321.0 | 442.0 | 726.0 | 2007.0 | 3111.0 | 4032.0 | 5042.0 |
| 2023-04-23 | 1221.0 | 236.0 | 319.0 | 440.0 | 725.0 | 2016.0 | 3134.0 | 4068.0 | 5094.0 |
| 2023-04-30 | 1257.0 | 242.0 | 327.0 | 451.0 | 745.0 | 2080.0 | 3241.0 | 4213.0 | 5282.0 |
| 2023-05-07 | 1249.0 | 237.0 | 322.0 | 445.0 | 737.0 | 2074.0 | 3240.0 | 4219.0 | 5297.0 |
| 2023-05-14 | 1153.0 | 211.0 | 289.0 | 403.0 | 675.0 | 1924.0 | 3017.0 | 3936.0 | 4951.0 |
| 2023-05-21 | 1041.0 | 181.0 | 252.0 | 356.0 | 604.0 | 1748.0 | 2753.0 | 3599.0 | 4535.0 |
| 2023-05-28 | 1021.0 | 174.0 | 243.0 | 346.0 | 590.0 | 1720.0 | 2717.0 | 3558.0 | 4489.0 |
| 2023-06-04 | 877.0 | 137.0 | 197.0 | 287.0 | 500.0 | 1491.0 | 2367.0 | 3108.0 | 3929.0 |
| 2023-06-11 | 748.0 | 104.0 | 157.0 | 234.0 | 420.0 | 1285.0 | 2053.0 | 2704.0 | 3425.0 |
| 2023-06-18 | 580.0 | 62.0 | 105.0 | 167.0 | 315.0 | 1012.0 | 1633.0 | 2159.0 | 2744.0 |
| 2023-06-25 | 463.0 | 34.0 | 68.0 | 120.0 | 243.0 | 824.0 | 1343.0 | 1784.0 | 2274.0 |
| 2023-07-02 | 384.0 | 14.0 | 44.0 | 88.0 | 194.0 | 696.0 | 1145.0 | 1528.0 | 1954.0 |
| 2023-07-09 | 331.0 | 1.0 | 27.0 | 67.0 | 161.0 | 610.0 | 1013.0 | 1357.0 | 1740.0 |
| 2023-07-16 | 292.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 51.0 | 137.0 | 547.0 | 917.0 | 1233.0 | 1585.0 |
| 2023-07-23 | 247.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 33.0 | 110.0 | 475.0 | 805.0 | 1088.0 | 1404.0 |
| 2023-07-30 | 230.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 26.0 | 99.0 | 448.0 | 764.0 | 1035.0 | 1337.0 |
| 2023-08-06 | 196.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 78.0 | 392.0 | 678.0 | 922.0 | 1197.0 |
| 2023-08-13 | 190.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 74.0 | 383.0 | 665.0 | 907.0 | 1178.0 |
| 2023-08-20 | 164.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 58.0 | 341.0 | 599.0 | 821.0 | 1070.0 |
| 2023-08-27 | 162.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 56.0 | 338.0 | 595.0 | 817.0 | 1066.0 |
| 2023-09-03 | 161.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 56.0 | 338.0 | 597.0 | 820.0 | 1070.0 |
| 2023-09-10 | 170.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 61.0 | 354.0 | 623.0 | 856.0 | 1118.0 |
| 2023-09-17 | 158.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 53.0 | 333.0 | 592.0 | 815.0 | 1067.0 |
| 2023-09-24 | 166.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 58.0 | 349.0 | 617.0 | 850.0 | 1111.0 |
| 2023-10-01 | 157.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 52.0 | 333.0 | 594.0 | 819.0 | 1074.0 |
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