Prediction 4139
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Mato Grosso |
Description:
Validation test 1 for UF=MT (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-09 | 108.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 54.0 | 182.0 | 270.0 | 336.0 | 402.0 |
| 2022-10-16 | 110.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 54.0 | 187.0 | 279.0 | 347.0 | 417.0 |
| 2022-10-23 | 121.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 22.0 | 61.0 | 203.0 | 302.0 | 376.0 | 452.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | 140.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 31.0 | 74.0 | 231.0 | 342.0 | 425.0 | 509.0 |
| 2022-11-06 | 171.0 | 5.0 | 22.0 | 46.0 | 95.0 | 275.0 | 402.0 | 499.0 | 597.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | 194.0 | 12.0 | 31.0 | 57.0 | 111.0 | 309.0 | 450.0 | 557.0 | 667.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | 240.0 | 28.0 | 50.0 | 80.0 | 143.0 | 375.0 | 542.0 | 669.0 | 800.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | 284.0 | 43.0 | 68.0 | 101.0 | 173.0 | 438.0 | 631.0 | 777.0 | 928.0 |
| 2022-12-04 | 342.0 | 63.0 | 91.0 | 130.0 | 214.0 | 524.0 | 749.0 | 922.0 | 1100.0 |
| 2022-12-11 | 339.0 | 60.0 | 88.0 | 127.0 | 210.0 | 521.0 | 749.0 | 924.0 | 1104.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | 277.0 | 36.0 | 60.0 | 94.0 | 166.0 | 436.0 | 635.0 | 788.0 | 946.0 |
| 2022-12-25 | 192.0 | 4.0 | 23.0 | 49.0 | 105.0 | 317.0 | 473.0 | 594.0 | 719.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | 506.0 | 114.0 | 153.0 | 207.0 | 324.0 | 767.0 | 1096.0 | 1350.0 | 1614.0 |
| 2023-01-08 | 583.0 | 139.0 | 183.0 | 244.0 | 376.0 | 879.0 | 1255.0 | 1546.0 | 1848.0 |
| 2023-01-15 | 606.0 | 145.0 | 191.0 | 254.0 | 391.0 | 916.0 | 1309.0 | 1614.0 | 1932.0 |
| 2023-01-22 | 675.0 | 167.0 | 217.0 | 286.0 | 437.0 | 1018.0 | 1454.0 | 1794.0 | 2147.0 |
| 2023-01-29 | 742.0 | 188.0 | 242.0 | 318.0 | 482.0 | 1118.0 | 1599.0 | 1972.0 | 2362.0 |
| 2023-02-05 | 733.0 | 183.0 | 236.0 | 311.0 | 474.0 | 1108.0 | 1588.0 | 1962.0 | 2354.0 |
| 2023-02-12 | 768.0 | 193.0 | 248.0 | 326.0 | 497.0 | 1162.0 | 1667.0 | 2062.0 | 2475.0 |
| 2023-02-19 | 700.0 | 168.0 | 219.0 | 291.0 | 449.0 | 1065.0 | 1535.0 | 1903.0 | 2288.0 |
| 2023-02-26 | 744.0 | 181.0 | 235.0 | 311.0 | 478.0 | 1132.0 | 1632.0 | 2024.0 | 2435.0 |
| 2023-03-05 | 729.0 | 174.0 | 228.0 | 302.0 | 467.0 | 1113.0 | 1609.0 | 1999.0 | 2407.0 |
| 2023-03-12 | 768.0 | 185.0 | 241.0 | 319.0 | 492.0 | 1173.0 | 1696.0 | 2108.0 | 2540.0 |
| 2023-03-19 | 735.0 | 173.0 | 227.0 | 302.0 | 468.0 | 1126.0 | 1633.0 | 2032.0 | 2452.0 |
| 2023-03-26 | 698.0 | 159.0 | 211.0 | 283.0 | 442.0 | 1074.0 | 1562.0 | 1947.0 | 2352.0 |
| 2023-04-02 | 719.0 | 165.0 | 218.0 | 291.0 | 455.0 | 1107.0 | 1612.0 | 2010.0 | 2429.0 |
| 2023-04-09 | 702.0 | 158.0 | 210.0 | 282.0 | 443.0 | 1084.0 | 1581.0 | 1974.0 | 2389.0 |
| 2023-04-16 | 674.0 | 148.0 | 198.0 | 268.0 | 423.0 | 1045.0 | 1528.0 | 1910.0 | 2314.0 |
| 2023-04-23 | 644.0 | 138.0 | 185.0 | 253.0 | 402.0 | 1002.0 | 1470.0 | 1840.0 | 2231.0 |
| 2023-04-30 | 622.0 | 130.0 | 176.0 | 241.0 | 387.0 | 971.0 | 1427.0 | 1788.0 | 2170.0 |
| 2023-05-07 | 594.0 | 120.0 | 164.0 | 227.0 | 367.0 | 931.0 | 1372.0 | 1722.0 | 2092.0 |
| 2023-05-14 | 547.0 | 104.0 | 146.0 | 204.0 | 335.0 | 863.0 | 1276.0 | 1605.0 | 1952.0 |
| 2023-05-21 | 482.0 | 83.0 | 120.0 | 173.0 | 291.0 | 767.0 | 1141.0 | 1438.0 | 1752.0 |
| 2023-05-28 | 427.0 | 65.0 | 99.0 | 147.0 | 253.0 | 686.0 | 1025.0 | 1296.0 | 1582.0 |
| 2023-06-04 | 362.0 | 44.0 | 74.0 | 116.0 | 210.0 | 590.0 | 889.0 | 1127.0 | 1379.0 |
| 2023-06-11 | 308.0 | 27.0 | 53.0 | 90.0 | 173.0 | 510.0 | 775.0 | 987.0 | 1211.0 |
| 2023-06-18 | 280.0 | 18.0 | 42.0 | 77.0 | 154.0 | 468.0 | 717.0 | 915.0 | 1124.0 |
| 2023-06-25 | 238.0 | 4.0 | 26.0 | 56.0 | 125.0 | 407.0 | 631.0 | 810.0 | 999.0 |
| 2023-07-02 | 210.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 43.0 | 106.0 | 367.0 | 574.0 | 740.0 | 917.0 |
| 2023-07-09 | 175.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 26.0 | 82.0 | 315.0 | 500.0 | 649.0 | 807.0 |
| 2023-07-16 | 155.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 69.0 | 286.0 | 459.0 | 599.0 | 747.0 |
| 2023-07-23 | 133.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 54.0 | 253.0 | 413.0 | 542.0 | 679.0 |
| 2023-07-30 | 114.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 41.0 | 225.0 | 374.0 | 493.0 | 621.0 |
| 2023-08-06 | 105.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 35.0 | 211.0 | 354.0 | 469.0 | 592.0 |
| 2023-08-13 | 111.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 39.0 | 222.0 | 370.0 | 490.0 | 619.0 |
| 2023-08-20 | 97.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 29.0 | 201.0 | 341.0 | 454.0 | 575.0 |
| 2023-08-27 | 79.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 174.0 | 301.0 | 405.0 | 515.0 |
| 2023-09-03 | 86.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 | 185.0 | 318.0 | 426.0 | 542.0 |
| 2023-09-10 | 89.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 23.0 | 189.0 | 326.0 | 436.0 | 555.0 |
| 2023-09-17 | 88.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 23.0 | 190.0 | 326.0 | 437.0 | 557.0 |
| 2023-09-24 | 90.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 24.0 | 193.0 | 332.0 | 444.0 | 566.0 |
| 2023-10-01 | 90.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 23.0 | 193.0 | 333.0 | 446.0 | 569.0 |
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