Prediction 4141
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Paraíba |
Description:
Validation test 1 for UF=PB (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-09 | 348.0 | 91.0 | 119.0 | 156.0 | 234.0 | 501.0 | 683.0 | 817.0 | 952.0 |
| 2022-10-16 | 311.0 | 72.0 | 98.0 | 132.0 | 204.0 | 454.0 | 626.0 | 754.0 | 882.0 |
| 2022-10-23 | 287.0 | 59.0 | 84.0 | 117.0 | 185.0 | 426.0 | 593.0 | 717.0 | 843.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | 277.0 | 53.0 | 77.0 | 109.0 | 176.0 | 415.0 | 582.0 | 707.0 | 833.0 |
| 2022-11-06 | 263.0 | 45.0 | 68.0 | 99.0 | 165.0 | 399.0 | 563.0 | 687.0 | 812.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | 265.0 | 43.0 | 67.0 | 98.0 | 165.0 | 404.0 | 573.0 | 700.0 | 830.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | 253.0 | 37.0 | 59.0 | 90.0 | 155.0 | 390.0 | 557.0 | 683.0 | 812.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | 257.0 | 36.0 | 59.0 | 90.0 | 156.0 | 397.0 | 570.0 | 701.0 | 835.0 |
| 2022-12-04 | 275.0 | 42.0 | 66.0 | 99.0 | 168.0 | 425.0 | 610.0 | 750.0 | 895.0 |
| 2022-12-11 | 263.0 | 35.0 | 59.0 | 91.0 | 159.0 | 410.0 | 592.0 | 731.0 | 874.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | 241.0 | 26.0 | 48.0 | 78.0 | 142.0 | 380.0 | 554.0 | 687.0 | 823.0 |
| 2022-12-25 | 189.0 | 6.0 | 24.0 | 50.0 | 105.0 | 309.0 | 459.0 | 574.0 | 693.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | 238.0 | 22.0 | 44.0 | 74.0 | 138.0 | 380.0 | 558.0 | 694.0 | 835.0 |
| 2023-01-08 | 246.0 | 24.0 | 46.0 | 77.0 | 143.0 | 393.0 | 577.0 | 719.0 | 866.0 |
| 2023-01-15 | 262.0 | 28.0 | 52.0 | 84.0 | 153.0 | 417.0 | 612.0 | 763.0 | 919.0 |
| 2023-01-22 | 288.0 | 36.0 | 61.0 | 96.0 | 171.0 | 456.0 | 668.0 | 833.0 | 1003.0 |
| 2023-01-29 | 327.0 | 49.0 | 76.0 | 114.0 | 197.0 | 513.0 | 750.0 | 933.0 | 1123.0 |
| 2023-02-05 | 346.0 | 54.0 | 83.0 | 123.0 | 210.0 | 543.0 | 793.0 | 987.0 | 1189.0 |
| 2023-02-12 | 386.0 | 67.0 | 98.0 | 141.0 | 236.0 | 602.0 | 877.0 | 1091.0 | 1314.0 |
| 2023-02-19 | 404.0 | 72.0 | 104.0 | 149.0 | 248.0 | 630.0 | 919.0 | 1143.0 | 1378.0 |
| 2023-02-26 | 456.0 | 88.0 | 124.0 | 174.0 | 283.0 | 707.0 | 1029.0 | 1279.0 | 1542.0 |
| 2023-03-05 | 483.0 | 96.0 | 134.0 | 186.0 | 301.0 | 749.0 | 1089.0 | 1355.0 | 1634.0 |
| 2023-03-12 | 545.0 | 116.0 | 157.0 | 215.0 | 342.0 | 840.0 | 1220.0 | 1517.0 | 1829.0 |
| 2023-03-19 | 535.0 | 111.0 | 152.0 | 209.0 | 335.0 | 828.0 | 1205.0 | 1500.0 | 1811.0 |
| 2023-03-26 | 544.0 | 113.0 | 154.0 | 212.0 | 340.0 | 842.0 | 1228.0 | 1530.0 | 1848.0 |
| 2023-04-02 | 607.0 | 132.0 | 178.0 | 242.0 | 382.0 | 937.0 | 1364.0 | 1700.0 | 2052.0 |
| 2023-04-09 | 643.0 | 143.0 | 191.0 | 258.0 | 406.0 | 992.0 | 1443.0 | 1799.0 | 2173.0 |
| 2023-04-16 | 689.0 | 157.0 | 207.0 | 279.0 | 436.0 | 1061.0 | 1544.0 | 1925.0 | 2326.0 |
| 2023-04-23 | 719.0 | 165.0 | 218.0 | 292.0 | 456.0 | 1108.0 | 1613.0 | 2011.0 | 2431.0 |
| 2023-04-30 | 773.0 | 181.0 | 238.0 | 316.0 | 491.0 | 1189.0 | 1731.0 | 2159.0 | 2610.0 |
| 2023-05-07 | 812.0 | 193.0 | 251.0 | 334.0 | 517.0 | 1248.0 | 1818.0 | 2267.0 | 2742.0 |
| 2023-05-14 | 838.0 | 200.0 | 260.0 | 345.0 | 533.0 | 1289.0 | 1877.0 | 2343.0 | 2835.0 |
| 2023-05-21 | 749.0 | 170.0 | 225.0 | 302.0 | 473.0 | 1160.0 | 1696.0 | 2120.0 | 2569.0 |
| 2023-05-28 | 741.0 | 167.0 | 221.0 | 297.0 | 467.0 | 1149.0 | 1683.0 | 2107.0 | 2554.0 |
| 2023-06-04 | 682.0 | 147.0 | 197.0 | 268.0 | 426.0 | 1063.0 | 1562.0 | 1958.0 | 2377.0 |
| 2023-06-11 | 605.0 | 122.0 | 167.0 | 231.0 | 373.0 | 949.0 | 1400.0 | 1759.0 | 2139.0 |
| 2023-06-18 | 548.0 | 103.0 | 145.0 | 204.0 | 335.0 | 866.0 | 1283.0 | 1615.0 | 1966.0 |
| 2023-06-25 | 516.0 | 92.0 | 132.0 | 187.0 | 312.0 | 819.0 | 1219.0 | 1537.0 | 1874.0 |
| 2023-07-02 | 504.0 | 87.0 | 126.0 | 181.0 | 304.0 | 803.0 | 1198.0 | 1512.0 | 1846.0 |
| 2023-07-09 | 477.0 | 78.0 | 115.0 | 167.0 | 285.0 | 765.0 | 1145.0 | 1448.0 | 1770.0 |
| 2023-07-16 | 452.0 | 69.0 | 105.0 | 155.0 | 267.0 | 728.0 | 1094.0 | 1386.0 | 1696.0 |
| 2023-07-23 | 400.0 | 53.0 | 85.0 | 130.0 | 233.0 | 652.0 | 986.0 | 1253.0 | 1537.0 |
| 2023-07-30 | 368.0 | 42.0 | 72.0 | 115.0 | 211.0 | 604.0 | 918.0 | 1170.0 | 1438.0 |
| 2023-08-06 | 338.0 | 33.0 | 61.0 | 101.0 | 190.0 | 560.0 | 856.0 | 1093.0 | 1346.0 |
| 2023-08-13 | 329.0 | 29.0 | 57.0 | 96.0 | 184.0 | 548.0 | 839.0 | 1073.0 | 1322.0 |
| 2023-08-20 | 277.0 | 13.0 | 37.0 | 72.0 | 149.0 | 470.0 | 727.0 | 934.0 | 1154.0 |
| 2023-08-27 | 272.0 | 11.0 | 35.0 | 69.0 | 145.0 | 463.0 | 718.0 | 923.0 | 1142.0 |
| 2023-09-03 | 246.0 | 3.0 | 25.0 | 57.0 | 128.0 | 425.0 | 663.0 | 855.0 | 1060.0 |
| 2023-09-10 | 219.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 44.0 | 110.0 | 385.0 | 606.0 | 784.0 | 975.0 |
| 2023-09-17 | 207.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 38.0 | 102.0 | 366.0 | 579.0 | 751.0 | 935.0 |
| 2023-09-24 | 180.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 26.0 | 84.0 | 326.0 | 522.0 | 680.0 | 849.0 |
| 2023-10-01 | 180.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 26.0 | 84.0 | 326.0 | 522.0 | 681.0 | 850.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
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