Prediction 4142
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Pernambuco |
Description:
Validation test 1 for UF=PE (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-09 | 207.0 | 8.0 | 28.0 | 55.0 | 115.0 | 340.0 | 507.0 | 637.0 | 771.0 |
| 2022-10-16 | 206.0 | 5.0 | 25.0 | 52.0 | 112.0 | 342.0 | 515.0 | 649.0 | 789.0 |
| 2022-10-23 | 224.0 | 9.0 | 30.0 | 59.0 | 123.0 | 371.0 | 560.0 | 708.0 | 862.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | 226.0 | 7.0 | 28.0 | 58.0 | 122.0 | 378.0 | 574.0 | 728.0 | 890.0 |
| 2022-11-06 | 246.0 | 12.0 | 34.0 | 65.0 | 134.0 | 411.0 | 625.0 | 794.0 | 973.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | 239.0 | 7.0 | 29.0 | 60.0 | 128.0 | 403.0 | 619.0 | 790.0 | 971.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | 226.0 | 1.0 | 22.0 | 52.0 | 118.0 | 388.0 | 601.0 | 771.0 | 951.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | 227.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 | 50.0 | 117.0 | 392.0 | 611.0 | 786.0 | 972.0 |
| 2022-12-04 | 226.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 49.0 | 116.0 | 394.0 | 618.0 | 797.0 | 989.0 |
| 2022-12-11 | 239.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 | 53.0 | 123.0 | 416.0 | 653.0 | 844.0 | 1049.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | 192.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 30.0 | 91.0 | 346.0 | 554.0 | 723.0 | 904.0 |
| 2022-12-25 | 114.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 39.0 | 230.0 | 386.0 | 513.0 | 649.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | 183.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 24.0 | 83.0 | 338.0 | 548.0 | 719.0 | 904.0 |
| 2023-01-08 | 199.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 30.0 | 93.0 | 365.0 | 591.0 | 775.0 | 975.0 |
| 2023-01-15 | 223.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 39.0 | 107.0 | 404.0 | 652.0 | 856.0 | 1076.0 |
| 2023-01-22 | 241.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 45.0 | 118.0 | 434.0 | 700.0 | 919.0 | 1156.0 |
| 2023-01-29 | 299.0 | 7.0 | 32.0 | 69.0 | 153.0 | 527.0 | 842.0 | 1102.0 | 1386.0 |
| 2023-02-05 | 329.0 | 14.0 | 41.0 | 80.0 | 171.0 | 577.0 | 921.0 | 1205.0 | 1516.0 |
| 2023-02-12 | 383.0 | 27.0 | 57.0 | 101.0 | 205.0 | 665.0 | 1058.0 | 1384.0 | 1740.0 |
| 2023-02-19 | 374.0 | 23.0 | 53.0 | 96.0 | 198.0 | 654.0 | 1045.0 | 1371.0 | 1726.0 |
| 2023-02-26 | 436.0 | 38.0 | 72.0 | 121.0 | 236.0 | 756.0 | 1204.0 | 1577.0 | 1986.0 |
| 2023-03-05 | 497.0 | 52.0 | 90.0 | 144.0 | 273.0 | 857.0 | 1361.0 | 1783.0 | 2246.0 |
| 2023-03-12 | 521.0 | 57.0 | 95.0 | 152.0 | 286.0 | 897.0 | 1427.0 | 1872.0 | 2360.0 |
| 2023-03-19 | 553.0 | 63.0 | 104.0 | 164.0 | 305.0 | 952.0 | 1515.0 | 1989.0 | 2510.0 |
| 2023-03-26 | 549.0 | 61.0 | 101.0 | 161.0 | 301.0 | 948.0 | 1515.0 | 1991.0 | 2517.0 |
| 2023-04-02 | 658.0 | 86.0 | 133.0 | 203.0 | 368.0 | 1128.0 | 1796.0 | 2360.0 | 2982.0 |
| 2023-04-09 | 688.0 | 92.0 | 141.0 | 213.0 | 385.0 | 1181.0 | 1883.0 | 2476.0 | 3132.0 |
| 2023-04-16 | 823.0 | 124.0 | 181.0 | 265.0 | 467.0 | 1405.0 | 2235.0 | 2937.0 | 3715.0 |
| 2023-04-23 | 838.0 | 125.0 | 183.0 | 269.0 | 474.0 | 1432.0 | 2283.0 | 3003.0 | 3803.0 |
| 2023-04-30 | 927.0 | 145.0 | 208.0 | 302.0 | 527.0 | 1581.0 | 2520.0 | 3318.0 | 4203.0 |
| 2023-05-07 | 959.0 | 151.0 | 216.0 | 313.0 | 545.0 | 1638.0 | 2614.0 | 3444.0 | 4368.0 |
| 2023-05-14 | 985.0 | 156.0 | 222.0 | 322.0 | 560.0 | 1685.0 | 2695.0 | 3554.0 | 4510.0 |
| 2023-05-21 | 873.0 | 128.0 | 188.0 | 276.0 | 490.0 | 1504.0 | 2415.0 | 3192.0 | 4058.0 |
| 2023-05-28 | 828.0 | 116.0 | 173.0 | 258.0 | 462.0 | 1433.0 | 2309.0 | 3057.0 | 3891.0 |
| 2023-06-04 | 786.0 | 105.0 | 159.0 | 240.0 | 435.0 | 1366.0 | 2208.0 | 2928.0 | 3731.0 |
| 2023-06-11 | 688.0 | 81.0 | 130.0 | 201.0 | 375.0 | 1207.0 | 1961.0 | 2606.0 | 3328.0 |
| 2023-06-18 | 594.0 | 59.0 | 101.0 | 164.0 | 317.0 | 1053.0 | 1720.0 | 2293.0 | 2934.0 |
| 2023-06-25 | 571.0 | 52.0 | 93.0 | 154.0 | 303.0 | 1019.0 | 1673.0 | 2236.0 | 2866.0 |
| 2023-07-02 | 555.0 | 47.0 | 86.0 | 146.0 | 291.0 | 996.0 | 1641.0 | 2198.0 | 2823.0 |
| 2023-07-09 | 542.0 | 42.0 | 81.0 | 140.0 | 282.0 | 978.0 | 1619.0 | 2173.0 | 2795.0 |
| 2023-07-16 | 473.0 | 26.0 | 61.0 | 113.0 | 240.0 | 866.0 | 1445.0 | 1946.0 | 2511.0 |
| 2023-07-23 | 402.0 | 9.0 | 40.0 | 85.0 | 197.0 | 748.0 | 1261.0 | 1705.0 | 2207.0 |
| 2023-07-30 | 399.0 | 8.0 | 38.0 | 83.0 | 194.0 | 746.0 | 1261.0 | 1708.0 | 2214.0 |
| 2023-08-06 | 380.0 | 3.0 | 32.0 | 75.0 | 182.0 | 717.0 | 1217.0 | 1653.0 | 2146.0 |
| 2023-08-13 | 350.0 | 0.0 | 23.0 | 63.0 | 164.0 | 668.0 | 1142.0 | 1555.0 | 2024.0 |
| 2023-08-20 | 342.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 59.0 | 158.0 | 655.0 | 1124.0 | 1534.0 | 1999.0 |
| 2023-08-27 | 302.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 44.0 | 135.0 | 589.0 | 1020.0 | 1397.0 | 1826.0 |
| 2023-09-03 | 297.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 42.0 | 131.0 | 583.0 | 1012.0 | 1389.0 | 1818.0 |
| 2023-09-10 | 281.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 36.0 | 121.0 | 557.0 | 972.0 | 1337.0 | 1753.0 |
| 2023-09-17 | 262.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 28.0 | 110.0 | 525.0 | 923.0 | 1272.0 | 1672.0 |
| 2023-09-24 | 263.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 28.0 | 110.0 | 529.0 | 931.0 | 1285.0 | 1689.0 |
| 2023-10-01 | 255.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 104.0 | 515.0 | 910.0 | 1259.0 | 1657.0 |
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Interval Bounds
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