Prediction 4143
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Piauí |
Description:
Validation test 1 for UF=PI (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-09 | 186.0 | 31.0 | 48.0 | 71.0 | 118.0 | 274.0 | 377.0 | 452.0 | 526.0 |
| 2022-10-16 | 183.0 | 27.0 | 45.0 | 68.0 | 115.0 | 272.0 | 376.0 | 452.0 | 528.0 |
| 2022-10-23 | 173.0 | 21.0 | 38.0 | 60.0 | 106.0 | 261.0 | 364.0 | 439.0 | 514.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | 174.0 | 20.0 | 37.0 | 60.0 | 106.0 | 263.0 | 369.0 | 446.0 | 524.0 |
| 2022-11-06 | 173.0 | 18.0 | 35.0 | 58.0 | 105.0 | 264.0 | 372.0 | 451.0 | 530.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | 173.0 | 17.0 | 34.0 | 57.0 | 104.0 | 265.0 | 375.0 | 456.0 | 537.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | 167.0 | 13.0 | 30.0 | 52.0 | 99.0 | 258.0 | 367.0 | 448.0 | 529.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | 168.0 | 13.0 | 29.0 | 52.0 | 99.0 | 261.0 | 372.0 | 455.0 | 538.0 |
| 2022-12-04 | 164.0 | 10.0 | 27.0 | 49.0 | 95.0 | 257.0 | 368.0 | 451.0 | 534.0 |
| 2022-12-11 | 161.0 | 8.0 | 24.0 | 46.0 | 93.0 | 254.0 | 366.0 | 449.0 | 532.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | 149.0 | 2.0 | 18.0 | 39.0 | 83.0 | 238.0 | 346.0 | 426.0 | 507.0 |
| 2022-12-25 | 135.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 31.0 | 73.0 | 221.0 | 324.0 | 401.0 | 479.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | 174.0 | 11.0 | 28.0 | 51.0 | 100.0 | 274.0 | 395.0 | 486.0 | 578.0 |
| 2023-01-08 | 184.0 | 14.0 | 32.0 | 56.0 | 108.0 | 289.0 | 416.0 | 512.0 | 608.0 |
| 2023-01-15 | 196.0 | 18.0 | 37.0 | 62.0 | 116.0 | 306.0 | 440.0 | 540.0 | 642.0 |
| 2023-01-22 | 203.0 | 20.0 | 40.0 | 66.0 | 121.0 | 317.0 | 456.0 | 560.0 | 665.0 |
| 2023-01-29 | 224.0 | 28.0 | 48.0 | 76.0 | 135.0 | 346.0 | 495.0 | 608.0 | 722.0 |
| 2023-02-05 | 231.0 | 30.0 | 51.0 | 79.0 | 140.0 | 356.0 | 510.0 | 625.0 | 743.0 |
| 2023-02-12 | 243.0 | 34.0 | 56.0 | 85.0 | 148.0 | 374.0 | 535.0 | 655.0 | 779.0 |
| 2023-02-19 | 247.0 | 35.0 | 57.0 | 87.0 | 150.0 | 380.0 | 543.0 | 666.0 | 792.0 |
| 2023-02-26 | 268.0 | 43.0 | 66.0 | 98.0 | 166.0 | 410.0 | 585.0 | 717.0 | 851.0 |
| 2023-03-05 | 306.0 | 57.0 | 83.0 | 118.0 | 193.0 | 464.0 | 658.0 | 804.0 | 954.0 |
| 2023-03-12 | 354.0 | 74.0 | 103.0 | 143.0 | 226.0 | 530.0 | 748.0 | 913.0 | 1081.0 |
| 2023-03-19 | 372.0 | 81.0 | 111.0 | 152.0 | 239.0 | 557.0 | 784.0 | 957.0 | 1133.0 |
| 2023-03-26 | 369.0 | 79.0 | 109.0 | 150.0 | 236.0 | 553.0 | 780.0 | 953.0 | 1129.0 |
| 2023-04-02 | 419.0 | 97.0 | 130.0 | 176.0 | 272.0 | 624.0 | 877.0 | 1068.0 | 1265.0 |
| 2023-04-09 | 458.0 | 112.0 | 147.0 | 196.0 | 300.0 | 679.0 | 952.0 | 1160.0 | 1372.0 |
| 2023-04-16 | 487.0 | 122.0 | 159.0 | 211.0 | 320.0 | 721.0 | 1009.0 | 1228.0 | 1453.0 |
| 2023-04-23 | 494.0 | 124.0 | 162.0 | 214.0 | 325.0 | 731.0 | 1025.0 | 1247.0 | 1476.0 |
| 2023-04-30 | 505.0 | 127.0 | 166.0 | 219.0 | 332.0 | 747.0 | 1046.0 | 1274.0 | 1508.0 |
| 2023-05-07 | 526.0 | 135.0 | 175.0 | 229.0 | 346.0 | 777.0 | 1088.0 | 1324.0 | 1567.0 |
| 2023-05-14 | 522.0 | 133.0 | 172.0 | 227.0 | 343.0 | 772.0 | 1082.0 | 1318.0 | 1561.0 |
| 2023-05-21 | 447.0 | 104.0 | 139.0 | 187.0 | 290.0 | 667.0 | 941.0 | 1149.0 | 1363.0 |
| 2023-05-28 | 430.0 | 98.0 | 132.0 | 178.0 | 277.0 | 644.0 | 911.0 | 1113.0 | 1322.0 |
| 2023-06-04 | 377.0 | 78.0 | 108.0 | 150.0 | 239.0 | 570.0 | 811.0 | 994.0 | 1182.0 |
| 2023-06-11 | 326.0 | 58.0 | 86.0 | 123.0 | 203.0 | 500.0 | 715.0 | 879.0 | 1048.0 |
| 2023-06-18 | 289.0 | 44.0 | 69.0 | 103.0 | 176.0 | 447.0 | 644.0 | 794.0 | 948.0 |
| 2023-06-25 | 252.0 | 30.0 | 53.0 | 84.0 | 150.0 | 396.0 | 575.0 | 711.0 | 852.0 |
| 2023-07-02 | 237.0 | 24.0 | 46.0 | 76.0 | 139.0 | 375.0 | 548.0 | 679.0 | 815.0 |
| 2023-07-09 | 201.0 | 11.0 | 30.0 | 57.0 | 114.0 | 325.0 | 480.0 | 598.0 | 719.0 |
| 2023-07-16 | 190.0 | 6.0 | 25.0 | 50.0 | 105.0 | 309.0 | 458.0 | 572.0 | 689.0 |
| 2023-07-23 | 180.0 | 2.0 | 20.0 | 45.0 | 98.0 | 295.0 | 439.0 | 549.0 | 663.0 |
| 2023-07-30 | 161.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 35.0 | 84.0 | 269.0 | 404.0 | 507.0 | 614.0 |
| 2023-08-06 | 144.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 26.0 | 72.0 | 245.0 | 372.0 | 469.0 | 569.0 |
| 2023-08-13 | 121.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 56.0 | 213.0 | 328.0 | 416.0 | 507.0 |
| 2023-08-20 | 117.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 53.0 | 207.0 | 320.0 | 406.0 | 496.0 |
| 2023-08-27 | 94.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 37.0 | 175.0 | 276.0 | 354.0 | 435.0 |
| 2023-09-03 | 83.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 29.0 | 159.0 | 255.0 | 328.0 | 404.0 |
| 2023-09-10 | 70.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 141.0 | 230.0 | 298.0 | 369.0 |
| 2023-09-17 | 67.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 137.0 | 225.0 | 292.0 | 362.0 |
| 2023-09-24 | 61.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 129.0 | 214.0 | 279.0 | 346.0 |
| 2023-10-01 | 57.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 124.0 | 207.0 | 271.0 | 337.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
When the Confidence Interval is active, the Prediction will display the 50% and 90% bounds (upper and lower)
