Prediction 4144
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Paraná |
Description:
Validation test 1 for UF=PR (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-09 | 631.0 | 93.0 | 139.0 | 206.0 | 362.0 | 1056.0 | 1646.0 | 2135.0 | 2668.0 |
| 2022-10-16 | 631.0 | 87.0 | 132.0 | 199.0 | 357.0 | 1070.0 | 1687.0 | 2201.0 | 2767.0 |
| 2022-10-23 | 647.0 | 85.0 | 131.0 | 199.0 | 362.0 | 1109.0 | 1764.0 | 2315.0 | 2924.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | 678.0 | 86.0 | 135.0 | 206.0 | 376.0 | 1173.0 | 1882.0 | 2483.0 | 3150.0 |
| 2022-11-06 | 730.0 | 93.0 | 144.0 | 220.0 | 402.0 | 1271.0 | 2053.0 | 2722.0 | 3467.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | 748.0 | 92.0 | 144.0 | 221.0 | 409.0 | 1315.0 | 2142.0 | 2853.0 | 3651.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | 888.0 | 118.0 | 178.0 | 267.0 | 487.0 | 1564.0 | 2559.0 | 3420.0 | 4389.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | 938.0 | 123.0 | 185.0 | 279.0 | 511.0 | 1663.0 | 2739.0 | 3676.0 | 4736.0 |
| 2022-12-04 | 1003.0 | 131.0 | 197.0 | 297.0 | 544.0 | 1789.0 | 2965.0 | 3996.0 | 5166.0 |
| 2022-12-11 | 1114.0 | 148.0 | 220.0 | 330.0 | 603.0 | 1996.0 | 3327.0 | 4499.0 | 5835.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | 1097.0 | 139.0 | 210.0 | 318.0 | 588.0 | 1984.0 | 3330.0 | 4523.0 | 5889.0 |
| 2022-12-25 | 1022.0 | 119.0 | 185.0 | 286.0 | 540.0 | 1867.0 | 3160.0 | 4311.0 | 5634.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | 1266.0 | 162.0 | 241.0 | 364.0 | 674.0 | 2313.0 | 3925.0 | 5368.0 | 7031.0 |
| 2023-01-08 | 1527.0 | 206.0 | 300.0 | 445.0 | 815.0 | 2794.0 | 4758.0 | 6523.0 | 8567.0 |
| 2023-01-15 | 1863.0 | 261.0 | 374.0 | 549.0 | 996.0 | 3414.0 | 5835.0 | 8022.0 | 10562.0 |
| 2023-01-22 | 2052.0 | 289.0 | 412.0 | 603.0 | 1095.0 | 3779.0 | 6490.0 | 8949.0 | 11815.0 |
| 2023-01-29 | 2507.0 | 363.0 | 511.0 | 742.0 | 1338.0 | 4628.0 | 7978.0 | 11031.0 | 14599.0 |
| 2023-02-05 | 2852.0 | 414.0 | 581.0 | 842.0 | 1518.0 | 5285.0 | 9152.0 | 12690.0 | 16837.0 |
| 2023-02-12 | 3308.0 | 484.0 | 676.0 | 975.0 | 1757.0 | 6155.0 | 10702.0 | 14880.0 | 19792.0 |
| 2023-02-19 | 3716.0 | 543.0 | 756.0 | 1091.0 | 1968.0 | 6942.0 | 12124.0 | 16904.0 | 22539.0 |
| 2023-02-26 | 4278.0 | 626.0 | 869.0 | 1252.0 | 2259.0 | 8023.0 | 14070.0 | 19669.0 | 26289.0 |
| 2023-03-05 | 4710.0 | 686.0 | 951.0 | 1371.0 | 2478.0 | 8872.0 | 15625.0 | 21901.0 | 29341.0 |
| 2023-03-12 | 5271.0 | 765.0 | 1060.0 | 1527.0 | 2765.0 | 9971.0 | 17633.0 | 24779.0 | 33271.0 |
| 2023-03-19 | 5650.0 | 812.0 | 1127.0 | 1625.0 | 2952.0 | 10735.0 | 19063.0 | 26857.0 | 36142.0 |
| 2023-03-26 | 5526.0 | 780.0 | 1086.0 | 1573.0 | 2872.0 | 10552.0 | 18820.0 | 26584.0 | 35856.0 |
| 2023-04-02 | 5662.0 | 790.0 | 1101.0 | 1598.0 | 2929.0 | 10860.0 | 19450.0 | 27540.0 | 37225.0 |
| 2023-04-09 | 5594.0 | 768.0 | 1074.0 | 1564.0 | 2880.0 | 10778.0 | 19382.0 | 27511.0 | 37264.0 |
| 2023-04-16 | 5133.0 | 687.0 | 968.0 | 1417.0 | 2627.0 | 9942.0 | 17955.0 | 25549.0 | 34679.0 |
| 2023-04-23 | 4528.0 | 588.0 | 835.0 | 1231.0 | 2302.0 | 8819.0 | 15997.0 | 22818.0 | 31037.0 |
| 2023-04-30 | 3853.0 | 481.0 | 690.0 | 1028.0 | 1943.0 | 7548.0 | 13753.0 | 19668.0 | 26808.0 |
| 2023-05-07 | 3228.0 | 383.0 | 559.0 | 842.0 | 1613.0 | 6364.0 | 11651.0 | 16703.0 | 22815.0 |
| 2023-05-14 | 2525.0 | 277.0 | 415.0 | 638.0 | 1246.0 | 5019.0 | 9236.0 | 13278.0 | 18177.0 |
| 2023-05-21 | 1900.0 | 184.0 | 289.0 | 458.0 | 922.0 | 3814.0 | 7064.0 | 10185.0 | 13976.0 |
| 2023-05-28 | 1392.0 | 110.0 | 188.0 | 314.0 | 660.0 | 2831.0 | 5282.0 | 7642.0 | 10513.0 |
| 2023-06-04 | 1028.0 | 57.0 | 116.0 | 211.0 | 472.0 | 2124.0 | 3996.0 | 5803.0 | 8004.0 |
| 2023-06-11 | 896.0 | 37.0 | 89.0 | 173.0 | 404.0 | 1870.0 | 3539.0 | 5155.0 | 7126.0 |
| 2023-06-18 | 720.0 | 12.0 | 54.0 | 123.0 | 313.0 | 1527.0 | 2914.0 | 4259.0 | 5904.0 |
| 2023-06-25 | 623.0 | 0.0 | 35.0 | 95.0 | 263.0 | 1341.0 | 2579.0 | 3783.0 | 5259.0 |
| 2023-07-02 | 515.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 65.0 | 208.0 | 1131.0 | 2198.0 | 3239.0 | 4517.0 |
| 2023-07-09 | 461.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 49.0 | 179.0 | 1027.0 | 2012.0 | 2975.0 | 4161.0 |
| 2023-07-16 | 399.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 32.0 | 147.0 | 907.0 | 1793.0 | 2662.0 | 3734.0 |
| 2023-07-23 | 376.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 24.0 | 135.0 | 863.0 | 1718.0 | 2558.0 | 3596.0 |
| 2023-07-30 | 350.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 122.0 | 815.0 | 1633.0 | 2440.0 | 3438.0 |
| 2023-08-06 | 325.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 108.0 | 767.0 | 1546.0 | 2317.0 | 3273.0 |
| 2023-08-13 | 301.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 96.0 | 722.0 | 1466.0 | 2204.0 | 3120.0 |
| 2023-08-20 | 291.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 90.0 | 704.0 | 1436.0 | 2164.0 | 3069.0 |
| 2023-08-27 | 281.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 85.0 | 685.0 | 1406.0 | 2123.0 | 3017.0 |
| 2023-09-03 | 274.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 81.0 | 673.0 | 1385.0 | 2097.0 | 2985.0 |
| 2023-09-10 | 278.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 82.0 | 684.0 | 1412.0 | 2140.0 | 3050.0 |
| 2023-09-17 | 278.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 82.0 | 687.0 | 1421.0 | 2157.0 | 3078.0 |
| 2023-09-24 | 279.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 82.0 | 691.0 | 1433.0 | 2177.0 | 3111.0 |
| 2023-10-01 | 277.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 80.0 | 690.0 | 1435.0 | 2184.0 | 3125.0 |
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