Prediction 4149
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Rio Grande do Sul |
Description:
Validation test 1 for UF=RS (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-09 | 75.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 168.0 | 295.0 | 397.0 | 507.0 |
| 2022-10-16 | 74.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 169.0 | 298.0 | 404.0 | 518.0 |
| 2022-10-23 | 68.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 162.0 | 290.0 | 396.0 | 510.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | 66.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 160.0 | 291.0 | 398.0 | 514.0 |
| 2022-11-06 | 64.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 159.0 | 290.0 | 399.0 | 518.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | 64.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 160.0 | 294.0 | 405.0 | 526.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | 63.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 160.0 | 296.0 | 409.0 | 534.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | 64.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 163.0 | 303.0 | 420.0 | 548.0 |
| 2022-12-04 | 67.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 168.0 | 312.0 | 433.0 | 566.0 |
| 2022-12-11 | 65.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 167.0 | 312.0 | 434.0 | 568.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | 65.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 169.0 | 315.0 | 439.0 | 577.0 |
| 2022-12-25 | 52.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 148.0 | 284.0 | 400.0 | 528.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | 69.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 176.0 | 330.0 | 460.0 | 605.0 |
| 2023-01-08 | 79.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 193.0 | 358.0 | 498.0 | 654.0 |
| 2023-01-15 | 93.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 217.0 | 397.0 | 550.0 | 720.0 |
| 2023-01-22 | 101.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 | 232.0 | 421.0 | 583.0 | 763.0 |
| 2023-01-29 | 130.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 39.0 | 281.0 | 499.0 | 686.0 | 894.0 |
| 2023-02-05 | 136.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 42.0 | 291.0 | 517.0 | 710.0 | 925.0 |
| 2023-02-12 | 231.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 26.0 | 99.0 | 450.0 | 768.0 | 1041.0 | 1347.0 |
| 2023-02-19 | 417.0 | 18.0 | 49.0 | 96.0 | 211.0 | 761.0 | 1262.0 | 1693.0 | 2175.0 |
| 2023-02-26 | 795.0 | 102.0 | 157.0 | 239.0 | 437.0 | 1393.0 | 2267.0 | 3018.0 | 3860.0 |
| 2023-03-05 | 1266.0 | 207.0 | 290.0 | 415.0 | 717.0 | 2182.0 | 3523.0 | 4678.0 | 5973.0 |
| 2023-03-12 | 1523.0 | 263.0 | 362.0 | 510.0 | 869.0 | 2616.0 | 4218.0 | 5599.0 | 7149.0 |
| 2023-03-19 | 1917.0 | 349.0 | 472.0 | 656.0 | 1103.0 | 3281.0 | 5282.0 | 7009.0 | 8950.0 |
| 2023-03-26 | 2234.0 | 418.0 | 560.0 | 772.0 | 1291.0 | 3819.0 | 6147.0 | 8157.0 | 10418.0 |
| 2023-04-02 | 2395.0 | 452.0 | 603.0 | 830.0 | 1384.0 | 4094.0 | 6593.0 | 8753.0 | 11184.0 |
| 2023-04-09 | 2727.0 | 523.0 | 694.0 | 952.0 | 1580.0 | 4658.0 | 7500.0 | 9960.0 | 12729.0 |
| 2023-04-16 | 2749.0 | 526.0 | 699.0 | 958.0 | 1591.0 | 4700.0 | 7576.0 | 10065.0 | 12870.0 |
| 2023-04-23 | 2625.0 | 497.0 | 662.0 | 909.0 | 1516.0 | 4495.0 | 7254.0 | 9645.0 | 12340.0 |
| 2023-04-30 | 2121.0 | 385.0 | 520.0 | 721.0 | 1216.0 | 3649.0 | 5905.0 | 7862.0 | 10068.0 |
| 2023-05-07 | 1483.0 | 245.0 | 341.0 | 485.0 | 837.0 | 2574.0 | 4187.0 | 5585.0 | 7163.0 |
| 2023-05-14 | 1175.0 | 177.0 | 254.0 | 370.0 | 654.0 | 2056.0 | 3358.0 | 4488.0 | 5763.0 |
| 2023-05-21 | 653.0 | 63.0 | 109.0 | 177.0 | 345.0 | 1174.0 | 1945.0 | 2614.0 | 3370.0 |
| 2023-05-28 | 484.0 | 27.0 | 62.0 | 115.0 | 245.0 | 889.0 | 1488.0 | 2008.0 | 2596.0 |
| 2023-06-04 | 256.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 31.0 | 110.0 | 503.0 | 869.0 | 1187.0 | 1547.0 |
| 2023-06-11 | 175.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 62.0 | 366.0 | 649.0 | 895.0 | 1173.0 |
| 2023-06-18 | 133.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 37.0 | 295.0 | 535.0 | 744.0 | 980.0 |
| 2023-06-25 | 113.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 263.0 | 488.0 | 684.0 | 907.0 |
| 2023-07-02 | 107.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 257.0 | 482.0 | 680.0 | 905.0 |
| 2023-07-09 | 93.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 235.0 | 450.0 | 640.0 | 857.0 |
| 2023-07-16 | 84.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 222.0 | 432.0 | 619.0 | 833.0 |
| 2023-07-23 | 81.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 219.0 | 431.0 | 620.0 | 838.0 |
| 2023-07-30 | 79.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 217.0 | 431.0 | 622.0 | 843.0 |
| 2023-08-06 | 74.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 210.0 | 422.0 | 612.0 | 833.0 |
| 2023-08-13 | 70.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 204.0 | 414.0 | 604.0 | 825.0 |
| 2023-08-20 | 68.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 203.0 | 414.0 | 606.0 | 830.0 |
| 2023-08-27 | 65.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 198.0 | 408.0 | 599.0 | 823.0 |
| 2023-09-03 | 63.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 196.0 | 407.0 | 600.0 | 826.0 |
| 2023-09-10 | 59.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 190.0 | 399.0 | 591.0 | 815.0 |
| 2023-09-17 | 61.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 194.0 | 408.0 | 604.0 | 834.0 |
| 2023-09-24 | 57.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 189.0 | 400.0 | 594.0 | 823.0 |
| 2023-10-01 | 55.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 185.0 | 395.0 | 589.0 | 818.0 |
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Interval Bounds
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