Prediction 4150
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Santa Catarina |
Description:
Validation test 1 for UF=SC (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-09 | 101.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 30.0 | 211.0 | 361.0 | 483.0 | 615.0 |
| 2022-10-16 | 106.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 32.0 | 222.0 | 381.0 | 511.0 | 652.0 |
| 2022-10-23 | 119.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 39.0 | 245.0 | 418.0 | 561.0 | 717.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | 101.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 27.0 | 218.0 | 382.0 | 517.0 | 665.0 |
| 2022-11-06 | 101.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 26.0 | 221.0 | 389.0 | 528.0 | 681.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | 97.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 23.0 | 216.0 | 384.0 | 524.0 | 679.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | 108.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 29.0 | 235.0 | 416.0 | 567.0 | 734.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | 129.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 41.0 | 272.0 | 475.0 | 646.0 | 836.0 |
| 2022-12-04 | 171.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 66.0 | 341.0 | 585.0 | 791.0 | 1020.0 |
| 2022-12-11 | 192.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 78.0 | 378.0 | 645.0 | 872.0 | 1124.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | 158.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 57.0 | 325.0 | 566.0 | 770.0 | 998.0 |
| 2022-12-25 | 117.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 32.0 | 259.0 | 464.0 | 639.0 | 835.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | 86.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 208.0 | 386.0 | 538.0 | 708.0 |
| 2023-01-08 | 97.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 228.0 | 419.0 | 583.0 | 766.0 |
| 2023-01-15 | 93.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 223.0 | 412.0 | 575.0 | 757.0 |
| 2023-01-22 | 103.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 | 240.0 | 441.0 | 615.0 | 809.0 |
| 2023-01-29 | 137.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 41.0 | 299.0 | 536.0 | 741.0 | 972.0 |
| 2023-02-05 | 207.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 82.0 | 417.0 | 727.0 | 995.0 | 1297.0 |
| 2023-02-12 | 318.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 54.0 | 147.0 | 605.0 | 1030.0 | 1399.0 | 1815.0 |
| 2023-02-19 | 456.0 | 20.0 | 54.0 | 104.0 | 228.0 | 841.0 | 1411.0 | 1907.0 | 2467.0 |
| 2023-02-26 | 955.0 | 127.0 | 191.0 | 286.0 | 522.0 | 1691.0 | 2784.0 | 3734.0 | 4809.0 |
| 2023-03-05 | 1612.0 | 266.0 | 369.0 | 524.0 | 906.0 | 2811.0 | 4596.0 | 6151.0 | 7911.0 |
| 2023-03-12 | 2159.0 | 380.0 | 516.0 | 720.0 | 1225.0 | 3750.0 | 6121.0 | 8191.0 | 10536.0 |
| 2023-03-19 | 3005.0 | 556.0 | 742.0 | 1023.0 | 1718.0 | 5202.0 | 8481.0 | 11348.0 | 14599.0 |
| 2023-03-26 | 4192.0 | 802.0 | 1059.0 | 1447.0 | 2409.0 | 7242.0 | 11803.0 | 15795.0 | 20326.0 |
| 2023-04-02 | 4688.0 | 901.0 | 1187.0 | 1621.0 | 2694.0 | 8104.0 | 13222.0 | 17705.0 | 22799.0 |
| 2023-04-09 | 5004.0 | 962.0 | 1267.0 | 1729.0 | 2874.0 | 8661.0 | 14146.0 | 18957.0 | 24427.0 |
| 2023-04-16 | 6230.0 | 1212.0 | 1589.0 | 2161.0 | 3582.0 | 10780.0 | 17615.0 | 23617.0 | 30447.0 |
| 2023-04-23 | 5663.0 | 1089.0 | 1433.0 | 1954.0 | 3248.0 | 9820.0 | 16073.0 | 21569.0 | 27827.0 |
| 2023-04-30 | 5804.0 | 1114.0 | 1465.0 | 1998.0 | 3325.0 | 10076.0 | 16510.0 | 22170.0 | 28620.0 |
| 2023-05-07 | 4775.0 | 898.0 | 1188.0 | 1629.0 | 2725.0 | 8313.0 | 13648.0 | 18345.0 | 23702.0 |
| 2023-05-14 | 3753.0 | 686.0 | 915.0 | 1263.0 | 2130.0 | 6557.0 | 10789.0 | 14520.0 | 18775.0 |
| 2023-05-21 | 2936.0 | 518.0 | 698.0 | 972.0 | 1655.0 | 5152.0 | 8500.0 | 11452.0 | 14823.0 |
| 2023-05-28 | 1891.0 | 304.0 | 422.0 | 601.0 | 1050.0 | 3347.0 | 5550.0 | 7494.0 | 9715.0 |
| 2023-06-04 | 1252.0 | 173.0 | 254.0 | 376.0 | 680.0 | 2244.0 | 3745.0 | 5071.0 | 6586.0 |
| 2023-06-11 | 873.0 | 96.0 | 154.0 | 241.0 | 461.0 | 1588.0 | 2671.0 | 3628.0 | 4723.0 |
| 2023-06-18 | 644.0 | 50.0 | 94.0 | 161.0 | 329.0 | 1193.0 | 2024.0 | 2759.0 | 3600.0 |
| 2023-06-25 | 439.0 | 6.0 | 38.0 | 86.0 | 208.0 | 843.0 | 1460.0 | 2008.0 | 2638.0 |
| 2023-07-02 | 282.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 30.0 | 117.0 | 575.0 | 1026.0 | 1430.0 | 1895.0 |
| 2023-07-09 | 212.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 75.0 | 456.0 | 835.0 | 1175.0 | 1570.0 |
| 2023-07-16 | 160.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 45.0 | 366.0 | 689.0 | 981.0 | 1321.0 |
| 2023-07-23 | 133.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 29.0 | 321.0 | 617.0 | 886.0 | 1200.0 |
| 2023-07-30 | 130.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 26.0 | 319.0 | 618.0 | 891.0 | 1211.0 |
| 2023-08-06 | 115.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 294.0 | 579.0 | 840.0 | 1147.0 |
| 2023-08-13 | 112.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 291.0 | 577.0 | 841.0 | 1152.0 |
| 2023-08-20 | 117.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 303.0 | 601.0 | 877.0 | 1204.0 |
| 2023-08-27 | 114.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 298.0 | 597.0 | 875.0 | 1203.0 |
| 2023-09-03 | 95.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 265.0 | 541.0 | 799.0 | 1105.0 |
| 2023-09-10 | 94.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 265.0 | 544.0 | 805.0 | 1116.0 |
| 2023-09-17 | 90.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 258.0 | 535.0 | 794.0 | 1102.0 |
| 2023-09-24 | 85.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 251.0 | 523.0 | 780.0 | 1086.0 |
| 2023-10-01 | 81.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 244.0 | 513.0 | 767.0 | 1071.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
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