Prediction 4153
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Tocantins |
Description:
Validation test 1 for UF=TO (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-10-09 | 118.0 | 6.0 | 19.0 | 36.0 | 70.0 | 179.0 | 249.0 | 299.0 | 348.0 |
| 2022-10-16 | 126.0 | 8.0 | 22.0 | 40.0 | 75.0 | 191.0 | 265.0 | 318.0 | 370.0 |
| 2022-10-23 | 133.0 | 10.0 | 24.0 | 43.0 | 80.0 | 201.0 | 280.0 | 336.0 | 392.0 |
| 2022-10-30 | 136.0 | 11.0 | 25.0 | 44.0 | 82.0 | 207.0 | 289.0 | 347.0 | 405.0 |
| 2022-11-06 | 141.0 | 12.0 | 26.0 | 46.0 | 85.0 | 215.0 | 300.0 | 361.0 | 422.0 |
| 2022-11-13 | 156.0 | 17.0 | 33.0 | 53.0 | 95.0 | 235.0 | 327.0 | 393.0 | 460.0 |
| 2022-11-20 | 176.0 | 25.0 | 42.0 | 64.0 | 110.0 | 263.0 | 364.0 | 437.0 | 510.0 |
| 2022-11-27 | 201.0 | 35.0 | 54.0 | 78.0 | 129.0 | 297.0 | 410.0 | 491.0 | 573.0 |
| 2022-12-04 | 207.0 | 36.0 | 55.0 | 81.0 | 132.0 | 306.0 | 422.0 | 507.0 | 592.0 |
| 2022-12-11 | 217.0 | 39.0 | 59.0 | 85.0 | 139.0 | 320.0 | 442.0 | 531.0 | 620.0 |
| 2022-12-18 | 188.0 | 26.0 | 44.0 | 67.0 | 116.0 | 283.0 | 395.0 | 478.0 | 560.0 |
| 2022-12-25 | 192.0 | 26.0 | 45.0 | 69.0 | 119.0 | 290.0 | 405.0 | 490.0 | 575.0 |
| 2023-01-01 | 256.0 | 53.0 | 75.0 | 105.0 | 166.0 | 376.0 | 519.0 | 624.0 | 729.0 |
| 2023-01-08 | 291.0 | 67.0 | 91.0 | 124.0 | 192.0 | 424.0 | 582.0 | 699.0 | 816.0 |
| 2023-01-15 | 302.0 | 70.0 | 95.0 | 129.0 | 199.0 | 439.0 | 604.0 | 725.0 | 847.0 |
| 2023-01-22 | 329.0 | 81.0 | 108.0 | 144.0 | 218.0 | 477.0 | 655.0 | 786.0 | 918.0 |
| 2023-01-29 | 346.0 | 87.0 | 115.0 | 153.0 | 231.0 | 502.0 | 689.0 | 827.0 | 966.0 |
| 2023-02-05 | 370.0 | 96.0 | 125.0 | 165.0 | 248.0 | 535.0 | 734.0 | 880.0 | 1029.0 |
| 2023-02-12 | 372.0 | 96.0 | 125.0 | 165.0 | 249.0 | 540.0 | 741.0 | 890.0 | 1041.0 |
| 2023-02-19 | 352.0 | 86.0 | 115.0 | 153.0 | 233.0 | 513.0 | 707.0 | 851.0 | 997.0 |
| 2023-02-26 | 352.0 | 85.0 | 114.0 | 152.0 | 233.0 | 514.0 | 710.0 | 855.0 | 1002.0 |
| 2023-03-05 | 354.0 | 85.0 | 114.0 | 153.0 | 234.0 | 518.0 | 716.0 | 863.0 | 1013.0 |
| 2023-03-12 | 359.0 | 87.0 | 116.0 | 155.0 | 237.0 | 526.0 | 727.0 | 878.0 | 1030.0 |
| 2023-03-19 | 346.0 | 80.0 | 109.0 | 147.0 | 226.0 | 509.0 | 705.0 | 852.0 | 1001.0 |
| 2023-03-26 | 317.0 | 68.0 | 94.0 | 130.0 | 205.0 | 470.0 | 655.0 | 793.0 | 934.0 |
| 2023-04-02 | 328.0 | 72.0 | 99.0 | 136.0 | 213.0 | 486.0 | 677.0 | 820.0 | 965.0 |
| 2023-04-09 | 322.0 | 69.0 | 96.0 | 132.0 | 208.0 | 479.0 | 669.0 | 811.0 | 956.0 |
| 2023-04-16 | 307.0 | 62.0 | 88.0 | 123.0 | 196.0 | 458.0 | 642.0 | 780.0 | 920.0 |
| 2023-04-23 | 302.0 | 60.0 | 85.0 | 120.0 | 193.0 | 452.0 | 635.0 | 772.0 | 912.0 |
| 2023-04-30 | 305.0 | 60.0 | 86.0 | 121.0 | 194.0 | 456.0 | 641.0 | 780.0 | 921.0 |
| 2023-05-07 | 286.0 | 52.0 | 77.0 | 110.0 | 180.0 | 431.0 | 608.0 | 741.0 | 876.0 |
| 2023-05-14 | 267.0 | 45.0 | 68.0 | 100.0 | 166.0 | 405.0 | 574.0 | 702.0 | 831.0 |
| 2023-05-21 | 230.0 | 30.0 | 51.0 | 79.0 | 139.0 | 355.0 | 508.0 | 623.0 | 740.0 |
| 2023-05-28 | 201.0 | 18.0 | 37.0 | 63.0 | 118.0 | 316.0 | 456.0 | 561.0 | 668.0 |
| 2023-06-04 | 172.0 | 6.0 | 24.0 | 47.0 | 97.0 | 276.0 | 403.0 | 499.0 | 596.0 |
| 2023-06-11 | 152.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 36.0 | 82.0 | 248.0 | 366.0 | 454.0 | 545.0 |
| 2023-06-18 | 127.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 22.0 | 64.0 | 213.0 | 320.0 | 400.0 | 482.0 |
| 2023-06-25 | 111.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 52.0 | 191.0 | 291.0 | 365.0 | 442.0 |
| 2023-07-02 | 95.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 41.0 | 170.0 | 263.0 | 332.0 | 403.0 |
| 2023-07-09 | 86.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 34.0 | 158.0 | 246.0 | 313.0 | 381.0 |
| 2023-07-16 | 80.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 30.0 | 149.0 | 235.0 | 299.0 | 365.0 |
| 2023-07-23 | 70.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 | 136.0 | 217.0 | 278.0 | 341.0 |
| 2023-07-30 | 72.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 24.0 | 139.0 | 222.0 | 284.0 | 348.0 |
| 2023-08-06 | 66.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 131.0 | 211.0 | 271.0 | 332.0 |
| 2023-08-13 | 67.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 132.0 | 212.0 | 273.0 | 335.0 |
| 2023-08-20 | 60.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 122.0 | 199.0 | 257.0 | 316.0 |
| 2023-08-27 | 53.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 113.0 | 187.0 | 243.0 | 300.0 |
| 2023-09-03 | 49.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 108.0 | 180.0 | 235.0 | 291.0 |
| 2023-09-10 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 109.0 | 182.0 | 237.0 | 294.0 |
| 2023-09-17 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 108.0 | 181.0 | 236.0 | 292.0 |
| 2023-09-24 | 48.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 107.0 | 179.0 | 234.0 | 290.0 |
| 2023-10-01 | 48.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 107.0 | 179.0 | 233.0 | 289.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
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