Prediction 4158
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Bahia |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=BA (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 369.0 | 67.0 | 97.0 | 139.0 | 229.0 | 570.0 | 823.0 | 1018.0 | 1220.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 368.0 | 63.0 | 93.0 | 135.0 | 226.0 | 573.0 | 834.0 | 1035.0 | 1245.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 363.0 | 58.0 | 88.0 | 129.0 | 220.0 | 570.0 | 834.0 | 1040.0 | 1254.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 335.0 | 46.0 | 74.0 | 113.0 | 199.0 | 534.0 | 789.0 | 989.0 | 1197.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 343.0 | 46.0 | 75.0 | 115.0 | 203.0 | 549.0 | 815.0 | 1024.0 | 1243.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 345.0 | 45.0 | 73.0 | 113.0 | 202.0 | 555.0 | 828.0 | 1043.0 | 1270.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 369.0 | 50.0 | 80.0 | 123.0 | 217.0 | 594.0 | 888.0 | 1120.0 | 1365.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 382.0 | 52.0 | 83.0 | 127.0 | 224.0 | 616.0 | 923.0 | 1167.0 | 1425.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 394.0 | 54.0 | 86.0 | 130.0 | 231.0 | 637.0 | 958.0 | 1213.0 | 1484.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 378.0 | 47.0 | 78.0 | 122.0 | 219.0 | 618.0 | 934.0 | 1186.0 | 1454.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 337.0 | 33.0 | 61.0 | 101.0 | 190.0 | 557.0 | 850.0 | 1085.0 | 1334.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 340.0 | 32.0 | 61.0 | 101.0 | 191.0 | 565.0 | 864.0 | 1104.0 | 1360.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 627.0 | 117.0 | 163.0 | 230.0 | 380.0 | 1003.0 | 1504.0 | 1908.0 | 2339.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 723.0 | 143.0 | 196.0 | 271.0 | 441.0 | 1152.0 | 1726.0 | 2189.0 | 2685.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 821.0 | 170.0 | 229.0 | 313.0 | 504.0 | 1306.0 | 1957.0 | 2484.0 | 3048.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 947.0 | 204.0 | 271.0 | 366.0 | 584.0 | 1502.0 | 2250.0 | 2856.0 | 3506.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 1117.0 | 250.0 | 328.0 | 439.0 | 693.0 | 1767.0 | 2646.0 | 3359.0 | 4126.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 1236.0 | 282.0 | 367.0 | 489.0 | 768.0 | 1955.0 | 2930.0 | 3722.0 | 4575.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 1380.0 | 320.0 | 414.0 | 549.0 | 859.0 | 2183.0 | 3272.0 | 4159.0 | 5116.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 1491.0 | 348.0 | 449.0 | 595.0 | 929.0 | 2360.0 | 3542.0 | 4506.0 | 5546.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 1600.0 | 376.0 | 484.0 | 639.0 | 997.0 | 2534.0 | 3808.0 | 4848.0 | 5972.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 1734.0 | 410.0 | 527.0 | 694.0 | 1081.0 | 2748.0 | 4132.0 | 5265.0 | 6489.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 1822.0 | 432.0 | 554.0 | 730.0 | 1135.0 | 2891.0 | 4353.0 | 5550.0 | 6847.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 1802.0 | 423.0 | 544.0 | 718.0 | 1120.0 | 2865.0 | 4322.0 | 5517.0 | 6811.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 1782.0 | 415.0 | 534.0 | 707.0 | 1105.0 | 2839.0 | 4289.0 | 5481.0 | 6773.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 1890.0 | 442.0 | 568.0 | 750.0 | 1172.0 | 3014.0 | 4558.0 | 5828.0 | 7206.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 1938.0 | 453.0 | 582.0 | 768.0 | 1201.0 | 3094.0 | 4685.0 | 5994.0 | 7417.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 1889.0 | 437.0 | 563.0 | 745.0 | 1168.0 | 3021.0 | 4583.0 | 5869.0 | 7267.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 1854.0 | 425.0 | 549.0 | 728.0 | 1144.0 | 2971.0 | 4513.0 | 5785.0 | 7168.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 1874.0 | 429.0 | 553.0 | 734.0 | 1154.0 | 3006.0 | 4571.0 | 5863.0 | 7269.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 1844.0 | 419.0 | 542.0 | 720.0 | 1134.0 | 2963.0 | 4512.0 | 5791.0 | 7185.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 1650.0 | 365.0 | 476.0 | 636.0 | 1009.0 | 2660.0 | 4060.0 | 5218.0 | 6480.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 1409.0 | 300.0 | 395.0 | 533.0 | 856.0 | 2284.0 | 3496.0 | 4500.0 | 5595.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 1328.0 | 277.0 | 367.0 | 498.0 | 803.0 | 2158.0 | 3310.0 | 4264.0 | 5305.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 1138.0 | 226.0 | 304.0 | 418.0 | 683.0 | 1860.0 | 2863.0 | 3694.0 | 4601.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 956.0 | 177.0 | 244.0 | 341.0 | 567.0 | 1573.0 | 2431.0 | 3143.0 | 3921.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 755.0 | 124.0 | 178.0 | 256.0 | 439.0 | 1255.0 | 1952.0 | 2531.0 | 3163.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 709.0 | 111.0 | 162.0 | 236.0 | 409.0 | 1185.0 | 1850.0 | 2402.0 | 3005.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 684.0 | 103.0 | 152.0 | 224.0 | 393.0 | 1148.0 | 1796.0 | 2336.0 | 2926.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 625.0 | 87.0 | 132.0 | 199.0 | 354.0 | 1055.0 | 1659.0 | 2161.0 | 2712.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 536.0 | 63.0 | 103.0 | 161.0 | 298.0 | 916.0 | 1449.0 | 1894.0 | 2382.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 480.0 | 48.0 | 84.0 | 138.0 | 263.0 | 829.0 | 1318.0 | 1727.0 | 2175.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 444.0 | 38.0 | 72.0 | 122.0 | 239.0 | 771.0 | 1232.0 | 1618.0 | 2041.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 401.0 | 27.0 | 58.0 | 104.0 | 212.0 | 703.0 | 1130.0 | 1487.0 | 1880.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 357.0 | 15.0 | 44.0 | 85.0 | 184.0 | 634.0 | 1025.0 | 1353.0 | 1714.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 332.0 | 8.0 | 35.0 | 75.0 | 169.0 | 596.0 | 968.0 | 1280.0 | 1624.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 297.0 | 0.0 | 24.0 | 60.0 | 146.0 | 540.0 | 883.0 | 1171.0 | 1488.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 275.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 51.0 | 132.0 | 505.0 | 831.0 | 1104.0 | 1406.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 261.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 45.0 | 124.0 | 483.0 | 798.0 | 1062.0 | 1354.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 248.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 39.0 | 115.0 | 462.0 | 766.0 | 1022.0 | 1305.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 244.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 38.0 | 112.0 | 457.0 | 759.0 | 1013.0 | 1294.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 236.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 34.0 | 107.0 | 444.0 | 740.0 | 989.0 | 1265.0 |
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