Prediction 4159
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Ceará |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=CE (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 56.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 117.0 | 193.0 | 250.0 | 308.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 48.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 107.0 | 181.0 | 237.0 | 294.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 41.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 99.0 | 171.0 | 226.0 | 282.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 44.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 105.0 | 181.0 | 239.0 | 299.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 56.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 122.0 | 206.0 | 271.0 | 338.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 58.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 126.0 | 213.0 | 280.0 | 350.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 68.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 143.0 | 237.0 | 311.0 | 387.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 66.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 141.0 | 236.0 | 310.0 | 387.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 68.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 144.0 | 241.0 | 317.0 | 397.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 60.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 134.0 | 229.0 | 303.0 | 381.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 49.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 118.0 | 207.0 | 277.0 | 351.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 106.0 | 192.0 | 259.0 | 330.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 90.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 29.0 | 181.0 | 299.0 | 392.0 | 491.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 112.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 43.0 | 214.0 | 348.0 | 453.0 | 564.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 157.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 21.0 | 73.0 | 282.0 | 446.0 | 575.0 | 712.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 196.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 39.0 | 99.0 | 341.0 | 532.0 | 683.0 | 844.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 241.0 | 6.0 | 28.0 | 59.0 | 128.0 | 410.0 | 632.0 | 809.0 | 996.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 268.0 | 14.0 | 38.0 | 71.0 | 146.0 | 452.0 | 694.0 | 887.0 | 1092.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 308.0 | 25.0 | 51.0 | 89.0 | 172.0 | 513.0 | 784.0 | 1001.0 | 1231.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 336.0 | 33.0 | 61.0 | 101.0 | 190.0 | 557.0 | 849.0 | 1083.0 | 1332.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 396.0 | 50.0 | 82.0 | 127.0 | 229.0 | 648.0 | 983.0 | 1252.0 | 1538.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 467.0 | 71.0 | 107.0 | 159.0 | 275.0 | 758.0 | 1145.0 | 1455.0 | 1786.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 518.0 | 85.0 | 125.0 | 181.0 | 308.0 | 837.0 | 1262.0 | 1603.0 | 1968.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 533.0 | 88.0 | 129.0 | 187.0 | 317.0 | 861.0 | 1300.0 | 1653.0 | 2030.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 585.0 | 103.0 | 146.0 | 209.0 | 350.0 | 942.0 | 1419.0 | 1804.0 | 2216.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 744.0 | 149.0 | 203.0 | 280.0 | 454.0 | 1186.0 | 1779.0 | 2257.0 | 2769.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 828.0 | 172.0 | 231.0 | 316.0 | 508.0 | 1315.0 | 1970.0 | 2499.0 | 3066.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 882.0 | 187.0 | 249.0 | 339.0 | 543.0 | 1401.0 | 2099.0 | 2664.0 | 3269.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 913.0 | 194.0 | 259.0 | 351.0 | 562.0 | 1450.0 | 2174.0 | 2760.0 | 3389.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 958.0 | 206.0 | 274.0 | 370.0 | 591.0 | 1522.0 | 2282.0 | 2898.0 | 3560.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 998.0 | 216.0 | 286.0 | 387.0 | 616.0 | 1585.0 | 2378.0 | 3021.0 | 3713.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 981.0 | 210.0 | 279.0 | 378.0 | 604.0 | 1562.0 | 2346.0 | 2983.0 | 3668.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 892.0 | 184.0 | 247.0 | 338.0 | 545.0 | 1426.0 | 2149.0 | 2736.0 | 3369.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 778.0 | 150.0 | 206.0 | 287.0 | 470.0 | 1253.0 | 1896.0 | 2418.0 | 2982.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 747.0 | 141.0 | 195.0 | 272.0 | 449.0 | 1206.0 | 1828.0 | 2335.0 | 2881.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 689.0 | 124.0 | 174.0 | 246.0 | 411.0 | 1119.0 | 1701.0 | 2175.0 | 2687.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 613.0 | 101.0 | 147.0 | 212.0 | 361.0 | 1001.0 | 1529.0 | 1959.0 | 2423.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 550.0 | 83.0 | 124.0 | 183.0 | 320.0 | 905.0 | 1390.0 | 1785.0 | 2211.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 522.0 | 74.0 | 114.0 | 170.0 | 301.0 | 864.0 | 1331.0 | 1712.0 | 2124.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 444.0 | 51.0 | 86.0 | 136.0 | 250.0 | 745.0 | 1155.0 | 1491.0 | 1854.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 399.0 | 38.0 | 70.0 | 115.0 | 221.0 | 675.0 | 1054.0 | 1363.0 | 1699.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 381.0 | 33.0 | 63.0 | 107.0 | 209.0 | 648.0 | 1015.0 | 1316.0 | 1641.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 349.0 | 23.0 | 52.0 | 93.0 | 188.0 | 600.0 | 944.0 | 1227.0 | 1533.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 313.0 | 13.0 | 39.0 | 77.0 | 164.0 | 545.0 | 863.0 | 1124.0 | 1407.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 285.0 | 5.0 | 29.0 | 65.0 | 146.0 | 502.0 | 800.0 | 1045.0 | 1310.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 240.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 45.0 | 117.0 | 432.0 | 696.0 | 913.0 | 1149.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 194.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 87.0 | 360.0 | 590.0 | 778.0 | 984.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 186.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 | 82.0 | 348.0 | 572.0 | 757.0 | 958.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 161.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 66.0 | 310.0 | 515.0 | 685.0 | 869.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 154.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 62.0 | 299.0 | 500.0 | 666.0 | 846.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 129.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 46.0 | 260.0 | 441.0 | 591.0 | 754.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 118.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 38.0 | 243.0 | 416.0 | 559.0 | 714.0 |
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