Prediction 4160
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Distrito Federal |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=DF (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 239.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 42.0 | 115.0 | 437.0 | 710.0 | 937.0 | 1184.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 244.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 40.0 | 114.0 | 454.0 | 750.0 | 998.0 | 1271.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 239.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 33.0 | 107.0 | 455.0 | 765.0 | 1028.0 | 1320.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 250.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 33.0 | 110.0 | 483.0 | 822.0 | 1113.0 | 1439.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 266.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 35.0 | 116.0 | 519.0 | 894.0 | 1219.0 | 1587.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 282.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 36.0 | 122.0 | 556.0 | 968.0 | 1330.0 | 1742.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 302.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 40.0 | 131.0 | 603.0 | 1060.0 | 1466.0 | 1932.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 316.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 40.0 | 135.0 | 638.0 | 1135.0 | 1582.0 | 2097.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 367.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 53.0 | 160.0 | 741.0 | 1326.0 | 1856.0 | 2474.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 397.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 58.0 | 172.0 | 807.0 | 1458.0 | 2054.0 | 2753.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 394.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 53.0 | 167.0 | 814.0 | 1491.0 | 2116.0 | 2855.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 347.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 35.0 | 138.0 | 738.0 | 1377.0 | 1974.0 | 2683.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 581.0 | 5.0 | 42.0 | 101.0 | 258.0 | 1195.0 | 2209.0 | 3165.0 | 4309.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 601.0 | 4.0 | 42.0 | 102.0 | 264.0 | 1252.0 | 2340.0 | 3375.0 | 4622.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 686.0 | 12.0 | 54.0 | 120.0 | 302.0 | 1435.0 | 2704.0 | 3920.0 | 5396.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 772.0 | 20.0 | 65.0 | 139.0 | 341.0 | 1624.0 | 3085.0 | 4499.0 | 6225.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 886.0 | 31.0 | 81.0 | 163.0 | 392.0 | 1874.0 | 3589.0 | 5262.0 | 7317.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 1002.0 | 41.0 | 97.0 | 188.0 | 443.0 | 2134.0 | 4120.0 | 6076.0 | 8492.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 1022.0 | 39.0 | 94.0 | 186.0 | 447.0 | 2202.0 | 4296.0 | 6375.0 | 8960.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 1071.0 | 40.0 | 97.0 | 192.0 | 464.0 | 2333.0 | 4596.0 | 6862.0 | 9695.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 1222.0 | 53.0 | 116.0 | 223.0 | 529.0 | 2678.0 | 5320.0 | 7986.0 | 11339.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 1340.0 | 61.0 | 129.0 | 244.0 | 577.0 | 2961.0 | 5933.0 | 8956.0 | 12781.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 1452.0 | 68.0 | 140.0 | 263.0 | 622.0 | 3238.0 | 6547.0 | 9939.0 | 14254.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 1562.0 | 74.0 | 150.0 | 280.0 | 664.0 | 3513.0 | 7169.0 | 10945.0 | 15775.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 1631.0 | 75.0 | 154.0 | 288.0 | 687.0 | 3705.0 | 7631.0 | 11716.0 | 16973.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 1738.0 | 81.0 | 162.0 | 303.0 | 727.0 | 3984.0 | 8280.0 | 12784.0 | 18610.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 1916.0 | 92.0 | 180.0 | 333.0 | 797.0 | 4428.0 | 9281.0 | 14407.0 | 21072.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 1933.0 | 88.0 | 175.0 | 328.0 | 795.0 | 4515.0 | 9552.0 | 14911.0 | 21917.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 1916.0 | 81.0 | 166.0 | 316.0 | 779.0 | 4524.0 | 9664.0 | 15170.0 | 22407.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 1900.0 | 74.0 | 157.0 | 305.0 | 763.0 | 4536.0 | 9779.0 | 15437.0 | 22911.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 1870.0 | 66.0 | 147.0 | 291.0 | 741.0 | 4513.0 | 9821.0 | 15589.0 | 23247.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 1765.0 | 53.0 | 128.0 | 263.0 | 688.0 | 4311.0 | 9473.0 | 15122.0 | 22659.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 1534.0 | 30.0 | 95.0 | 212.0 | 584.0 | 3803.0 | 8448.0 | 13565.0 | 20427.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 1448.0 | 20.0 | 81.0 | 190.0 | 541.0 | 3634.0 | 8151.0 | 13160.0 | 19910.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 1259.0 | 2.0 | 55.0 | 150.0 | 458.0 | 3212.0 | 7282.0 | 11827.0 | 17981.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 1087.0 | 0.0 | 32.0 | 115.0 | 383.0 | 2821.0 | 6467.0 | 10564.0 | 16140.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 874.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 73.0 | 292.0 | 2318.0 | 5384.0 | 8853.0 | 13594.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 698.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 39.0 | 218.0 | 1902.0 | 4479.0 | 7415.0 | 11447.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 580.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 169.0 | 1623.0 | 3875.0 | 6457.0 | 10021.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 515.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 141.0 | 1472.0 | 3559.0 | 5967.0 | 9306.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 459.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 116.0 | 1342.0 | 3284.0 | 5539.0 | 8681.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 414.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 97.0 | 1238.0 | 3068.0 | 5205.0 | 8198.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 389.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 86.0 | 1187.0 | 2972.0 | 5072.0 | 8024.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 353.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 71.0 | 1103.0 | 2795.0 | 4797.0 | 7626.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 348.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 67.0 | 1100.0 | 2813.0 | 4852.0 | 7746.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 318.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 55.0 | 1030.0 | 2666.0 | 4624.0 | 7417.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 321.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 54.0 | 1048.0 | 2732.0 | 4761.0 | 7667.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 324.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 54.0 | 1067.0 | 2802.0 | 4906.0 | 7932.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 338.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 58.0 | 1117.0 | 2950.0 | 5186.0 | 8417.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 324.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 51.0 | 1087.0 | 2899.0 | 5122.0 | 8347.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 348.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 59.0 | 1167.0 | 3125.0 | 5541.0 | 9063.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 326.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | 1115.0 | 3016.0 | 5377.0 | 8832.0 |
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