Prediction 4161
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Espírito Santo |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=ES (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 1041.0 | 271.0 | 345.0 | 448.0 | 675.0 | 1579.0 | 2278.0 | 2828.0 | 3407.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 1051.0 | 263.0 | 337.0 | 441.0 | 674.0 | 1611.0 | 2345.0 | 2927.0 | 3543.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 1044.0 | 251.0 | 325.0 | 429.0 | 662.0 | 1618.0 | 2376.0 | 2983.0 | 3627.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 1054.0 | 245.0 | 319.0 | 424.0 | 661.0 | 1649.0 | 2443.0 | 3081.0 | 3763.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 1080.0 | 243.0 | 319.0 | 427.0 | 672.0 | 1705.0 | 2546.0 | 3226.0 | 3956.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 1059.0 | 229.0 | 303.0 | 409.0 | 652.0 | 1689.0 | 2542.0 | 3237.0 | 3986.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 1143.0 | 244.0 | 323.0 | 437.0 | 699.0 | 1833.0 | 2777.0 | 3550.0 | 4387.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 1293.0 | 277.0 | 365.0 | 492.0 | 788.0 | 2083.0 | 3173.0 | 4070.0 | 5045.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 1396.0 | 296.0 | 390.0 | 527.0 | 847.0 | 2263.0 | 3468.0 | 4464.0 | 5552.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 1504.0 | 315.0 | 416.0 | 563.0 | 908.0 | 2454.0 | 3781.0 | 4885.0 | 6095.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 1452.0 | 294.0 | 391.0 | 533.0 | 868.0 | 2389.0 | 3707.0 | 4809.0 | 6020.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 1543.0 | 308.0 | 411.0 | 561.0 | 917.0 | 2552.0 | 3981.0 | 5183.0 | 6508.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 1994.0 | 410.0 | 540.0 | 732.0 | 1188.0 | 3303.0 | 5169.0 | 6745.0 | 8488.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 2168.0 | 443.0 | 583.0 | 790.0 | 1286.0 | 3611.0 | 5679.0 | 7433.0 | 9381.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 2335.0 | 472.0 | 622.0 | 844.0 | 1379.0 | 3909.0 | 6180.0 | 8114.0 | 10269.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 2354.0 | 466.0 | 617.0 | 840.0 | 1381.0 | 3964.0 | 6301.0 | 8300.0 | 10534.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 2276.0 | 439.0 | 584.0 | 801.0 | 1326.0 | 3860.0 | 6170.0 | 8155.0 | 10380.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 2324.0 | 440.0 | 588.0 | 809.0 | 1346.0 | 3962.0 | 6366.0 | 8439.0 | 10769.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 2496.0 | 469.0 | 627.0 | 863.0 | 1440.0 | 4275.0 | 6898.0 | 9171.0 | 11731.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 2516.0 | 465.0 | 623.0 | 860.0 | 1444.0 | 4334.0 | 7028.0 | 9370.0 | 12016.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 2713.0 | 498.0 | 667.0 | 922.0 | 1551.0 | 4693.0 | 7642.0 | 10215.0 | 13131.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 2878.0 | 524.0 | 702.0 | 972.0 | 1639.0 | 5000.0 | 8175.0 | 10956.0 | 14115.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 2976.0 | 535.0 | 718.0 | 996.0 | 1687.0 | 5193.0 | 8528.0 | 11459.0 | 14796.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 2906.0 | 512.0 | 690.0 | 962.0 | 1638.0 | 5098.0 | 8411.0 | 11332.0 | 14666.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 2823.0 | 487.0 | 660.0 | 923.0 | 1582.0 | 4978.0 | 8250.0 | 11144.0 | 14455.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 2991.0 | 512.0 | 694.0 | 972.0 | 1671.0 | 5295.0 | 8807.0 | 11925.0 | 15499.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 2945.0 | 496.0 | 674.0 | 948.0 | 1637.0 | 5239.0 | 8750.0 | 11876.0 | 15469.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 2879.0 | 475.0 | 649.0 | 917.0 | 1592.0 | 5147.0 | 8632.0 | 11743.0 | 15327.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 2775.0 | 448.0 | 616.0 | 873.0 | 1526.0 | 4985.0 | 8395.0 | 11448.0 | 14973.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 2662.0 | 421.0 | 581.0 | 827.0 | 1455.0 | 4805.0 | 8124.0 | 11105.0 | 14554.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 2516.0 | 387.0 | 539.0 | 772.0 | 1367.0 | 4565.0 | 7750.0 | 10619.0 | 13945.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 2226.0 | 328.0 | 462.0 | 669.0 | 1200.0 | 4064.0 | 6932.0 | 9522.0 | 12530.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 1960.0 | 275.0 | 393.0 | 576.0 | 1046.0 | 3601.0 | 6172.0 | 8500.0 | 11209.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 1934.0 | 267.0 | 383.0 | 563.0 | 1028.0 | 3569.0 | 6138.0 | 8471.0 | 11190.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 1817.0 | 242.0 | 351.0 | 521.0 | 959.0 | 3370.0 | 5820.0 | 8049.0 | 10653.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 1590.0 | 198.0 | 294.0 | 444.0 | 830.0 | 2970.0 | 5154.0 | 7147.0 | 9478.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 1463.0 | 173.0 | 262.0 | 400.0 | 758.0 | 2750.0 | 4792.0 | 6659.0 | 8848.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 1320.0 | 145.0 | 225.0 | 351.0 | 676.0 | 2498.0 | 4374.0 | 6095.0 | 8115.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 1217.0 | 125.0 | 199.0 | 315.0 | 617.0 | 2319.0 | 4080.0 | 5699.0 | 7602.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 1065.0 | 97.0 | 162.0 | 265.0 | 532.0 | 2047.0 | 3622.0 | 5073.0 | 6783.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 967.0 | 79.0 | 138.0 | 232.0 | 477.0 | 1872.0 | 3330.0 | 4676.0 | 6264.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 908.0 | 67.0 | 123.0 | 211.0 | 443.0 | 1770.0 | 3161.0 | 4449.0 | 5972.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 867.0 | 59.0 | 112.0 | 197.0 | 419.0 | 1699.0 | 3048.0 | 4299.0 | 5780.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 795.0 | 46.0 | 95.0 | 173.0 | 379.0 | 1571.0 | 2831.0 | 4003.0 | 5392.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 743.0 | 36.0 | 82.0 | 156.0 | 350.0 | 1479.0 | 2677.0 | 3794.0 | 5121.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 673.0 | 24.0 | 66.0 | 133.0 | 311.0 | 1352.0 | 2461.0 | 3497.0 | 4729.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 612.0 | 13.0 | 52.0 | 114.0 | 278.0 | 1242.0 | 2274.0 | 3240.0 | 4390.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 557.0 | 3.0 | 39.0 | 96.0 | 248.0 | 1141.0 | 2101.0 | 3001.0 | 4075.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 599.0 | 9.0 | 47.0 | 107.0 | 269.0 | 1224.0 | 2253.0 | 3221.0 | 4377.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 558.0 | 2.0 | 37.0 | 94.0 | 246.0 | 1150.0 | 2128.0 | 3049.0 | 4150.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 515.0 | 0.0 | 28.0 | 81.0 | 223.0 | 1071.0 | 1993.0 | 2861.0 | 3902.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 523.0 | 0.0 | 28.0 | 82.0 | 226.0 | 1090.0 | 2031.0 | 2920.0 | 3987.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
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