Prediction 4164
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Minas Gerais |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=MG (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 842.0 | 169.0 | 229.0 | 315.0 | 512.0 | 1350.0 | 2038.0 | 2597.0 | 3199.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 931.0 | 185.0 | 251.0 | 345.0 | 563.0 | 1504.0 | 2288.0 | 2930.0 | 3626.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 951.0 | 182.0 | 249.0 | 345.0 | 569.0 | 1552.0 | 2381.0 | 3065.0 | 3810.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 934.0 | 170.0 | 235.0 | 330.0 | 551.0 | 1540.0 | 2385.0 | 3087.0 | 3854.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 1015.0 | 184.0 | 254.0 | 356.0 | 596.0 | 1685.0 | 2627.0 | 3414.0 | 4279.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 1030.0 | 180.0 | 251.0 | 354.0 | 599.0 | 1725.0 | 2711.0 | 3539.0 | 4453.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 1256.0 | 229.0 | 313.0 | 437.0 | 733.0 | 2109.0 | 3328.0 | 4358.0 | 5499.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 1302.0 | 232.0 | 318.0 | 446.0 | 754.0 | 2202.0 | 3496.0 | 4597.0 | 5822.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 1480.0 | 266.0 | 363.0 | 507.0 | 855.0 | 2514.0 | 4012.0 | 5292.0 | 6722.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 1574.0 | 279.0 | 382.0 | 534.0 | 904.0 | 2689.0 | 4317.0 | 5715.0 | 7283.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 1480.0 | 251.0 | 347.0 | 491.0 | 841.0 | 2551.0 | 4124.0 | 5483.0 | 7010.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 1457.0 | 239.0 | 333.0 | 475.0 | 822.0 | 2530.0 | 4116.0 | 5493.0 | 7045.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 3030.0 | 569.0 | 758.0 | 1042.0 | 1741.0 | 5222.0 | 8481.0 | 11320.0 | 14535.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 3880.0 | 736.0 | 975.0 | 1335.0 | 2227.0 | 6710.0 | 10941.0 | 14644.0 | 18848.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 4519.0 | 854.0 | 1129.0 | 1547.0 | 2584.0 | 7850.0 | 12859.0 | 17261.0 | 22274.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 4977.0 | 931.0 | 1232.0 | 1690.0 | 2833.0 | 8687.0 | 14298.0 | 19248.0 | 24901.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 5757.0 | 1070.0 | 1416.0 | 1944.0 | 3265.0 | 10094.0 | 16686.0 | 22524.0 | 29209.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 6306.0 | 1160.0 | 1537.0 | 2113.0 | 3561.0 | 11108.0 | 18444.0 | 24966.0 | 32453.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 7070.0 | 1290.0 | 1710.0 | 2353.0 | 3977.0 | 12511.0 | 20861.0 | 28310.0 | 36885.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 7596.0 | 1371.0 | 1819.0 | 2508.0 | 4254.0 | 13501.0 | 22608.0 | 30760.0 | 40166.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 8804.0 | 1578.0 | 2095.0 | 2890.0 | 4914.0 | 15711.0 | 26410.0 | 36019.0 | 47133.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 10021.0 | 1783.0 | 2367.0 | 3270.0 | 5573.0 | 17954.0 | 30297.0 | 41417.0 | 54308.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 11218.0 | 1978.0 | 2629.0 | 3637.0 | 6217.0 | 20180.0 | 34180.0 | 46832.0 | 61532.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 11582.0 | 2019.0 | 2688.0 | 3726.0 | 6392.0 | 20921.0 | 35569.0 | 48847.0 | 64305.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 11824.0 | 2037.0 | 2718.0 | 3775.0 | 6499.0 | 21446.0 | 36595.0 | 50366.0 | 66433.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 13037.0 | 2228.0 | 2974.0 | 4137.0 | 7142.0 | 23732.0 | 40634.0 | 56040.0 | 74050.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 13512.0 | 2285.0 | 3056.0 | 4258.0 | 7375.0 | 24687.0 | 42413.0 | 58614.0 | 77588.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 12997.0 | 2170.0 | 2909.0 | 4064.0 | 7066.0 | 23839.0 | 41095.0 | 56907.0 | 75460.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 12027.0 | 1980.0 | 2662.0 | 3730.0 | 6511.0 | 22146.0 | 38305.0 | 53149.0 | 70597.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 10997.0 | 1784.0 | 2406.0 | 3381.0 | 5928.0 | 20326.0 | 35273.0 | 49036.0 | 65242.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 9489.0 | 1513.0 | 2048.0 | 2889.0 | 5092.0 | 17610.0 | 30662.0 | 42708.0 | 56916.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 7663.0 | 1193.0 | 1625.0 | 2305.0 | 4090.0 | 14285.0 | 24959.0 | 34832.0 | 46497.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 5668.0 | 852.0 | 1172.0 | 1676.0 | 3003.0 | 10621.0 | 18629.0 | 26053.0 | 34837.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 4544.0 | 660.0 | 917.0 | 1322.0 | 2391.0 | 8557.0 | 15065.0 | 21111.0 | 28275.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 3622.0 | 504.0 | 709.0 | 1033.0 | 1890.0 | 6858.0 | 12121.0 | 17020.0 | 22834.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 2772.0 | 362.0 | 520.0 | 770.0 | 1432.0 | 5285.0 | 9383.0 | 13204.0 | 17745.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 2083.0 | 249.0 | 368.0 | 558.0 | 1061.0 | 4005.0 | 7146.0 | 10081.0 | 13574.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 1620.0 | 172.0 | 265.0 | 414.0 | 811.0 | 3147.0 | 5651.0 | 7997.0 | 10795.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 1281.0 | 116.0 | 191.0 | 310.0 | 629.0 | 2517.0 | 4553.0 | 6466.0 | 8752.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 1043.0 | 76.0 | 138.0 | 237.0 | 501.0 | 2075.0 | 3781.0 | 5387.0 | 7311.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 833.0 | 42.0 | 93.0 | 173.0 | 389.0 | 1682.0 | 3091.0 | 4421.0 | 6016.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 710.0 | 22.0 | 66.0 | 135.0 | 323.0 | 1453.0 | 2689.0 | 3859.0 | 5266.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 623.0 | 8.0 | 47.0 | 109.0 | 276.0 | 1291.0 | 2407.0 | 3466.0 | 4740.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 569.0 | 0.0 | 35.0 | 92.0 | 247.0 | 1191.0 | 2232.0 | 3224.0 | 4419.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 538.0 | 0.0 | 27.0 | 82.0 | 230.0 | 1136.0 | 2140.0 | 3098.0 | 4254.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 508.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 72.0 | 213.0 | 1080.0 | 2045.0 | 2968.0 | 4083.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 458.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 57.0 | 186.0 | 986.0 | 1880.0 | 2736.0 | 3773.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 481.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 63.0 | 197.0 | 1035.0 | 1975.0 | 2876.0 | 3970.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 517.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 72.0 | 215.0 | 1109.0 | 2116.0 | 3083.0 | 4259.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 498.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 66.0 | 204.0 | 1075.0 | 2058.0 | 3006.0 | 4158.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 486.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 62.0 | 197.0 | 1055.0 | 2027.0 | 2965.0 | 4108.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 491.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 62.0 | 199.0 | 1068.0 | 2056.0 | 3011.0 | 4176.0 |
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