Prediction 4165
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Mato Grosso do Sul |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=MS (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 132.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 53.0 | 252.0 | 412.0 | 541.0 | 679.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 147.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 61.0 | 279.0 | 456.0 | 600.0 | 755.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 153.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 63.0 | 291.0 | 479.0 | 632.0 | 797.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 167.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 71.0 | 317.0 | 522.0 | 690.0 | 873.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 202.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 28.0 | 92.0 | 375.0 | 614.0 | 812.0 | 1026.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 224.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 35.0 | 104.0 | 413.0 | 677.0 | 896.0 | 1134.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 281.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 | 56.0 | 138.0 | 507.0 | 825.0 | 1091.0 | 1381.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 266.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 49.0 | 128.0 | 489.0 | 802.0 | 1065.0 | 1354.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 280.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 52.0 | 135.0 | 515.0 | 848.0 | 1129.0 | 1438.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 268.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 46.0 | 126.0 | 499.0 | 829.0 | 1108.0 | 1416.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 203.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 85.0 | 396.0 | 673.0 | 908.0 | 1169.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 207.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 86.0 | 406.0 | 692.0 | 936.0 | 1208.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 393.0 | 14.0 | 44.0 | 89.0 | 198.0 | 717.0 | 1186.0 | 1587.0 | 2035.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 497.0 | 36.0 | 72.0 | 127.0 | 258.0 | 893.0 | 1471.0 | 1967.0 | 2522.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 581.0 | 53.0 | 94.0 | 156.0 | 307.0 | 1039.0 | 1710.0 | 2288.0 | 2937.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 693.0 | 75.0 | 124.0 | 196.0 | 372.0 | 1233.0 | 2026.0 | 2712.0 | 3484.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 798.0 | 96.0 | 150.0 | 232.0 | 432.0 | 1415.0 | 2328.0 | 3119.0 | 4011.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 874.0 | 110.0 | 169.0 | 257.0 | 474.0 | 1551.0 | 2556.0 | 3429.0 | 4416.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 931.0 | 120.0 | 182.0 | 275.0 | 505.0 | 1654.0 | 2732.0 | 3672.0 | 4736.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 955.0 | 122.0 | 185.0 | 281.0 | 517.0 | 1702.0 | 2820.0 | 3797.0 | 4906.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 1089.0 | 148.0 | 219.0 | 326.0 | 593.0 | 1940.0 | 3216.0 | 4335.0 | 5607.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 1156.0 | 159.0 | 234.0 | 347.0 | 630.0 | 2063.0 | 3427.0 | 4626.0 | 5992.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 1202.0 | 166.0 | 243.0 | 361.0 | 653.0 | 2149.0 | 3578.0 | 4838.0 | 6275.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 1254.0 | 174.0 | 254.0 | 376.0 | 681.0 | 2247.0 | 3751.0 | 5079.0 | 6596.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 1283.0 | 177.0 | 259.0 | 383.0 | 695.0 | 2305.0 | 3857.0 | 5231.0 | 6803.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 1259.0 | 170.0 | 250.0 | 372.0 | 679.0 | 2270.0 | 3811.0 | 5177.0 | 6743.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 1237.0 | 163.0 | 242.0 | 362.0 | 664.0 | 2239.0 | 3769.0 | 5129.0 | 6690.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 1164.0 | 147.0 | 221.0 | 335.0 | 621.0 | 2117.0 | 3577.0 | 4878.0 | 6372.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 1037.0 | 120.0 | 187.0 | 289.0 | 547.0 | 1901.0 | 3226.0 | 4408.0 | 5769.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 1024.0 | 116.0 | 182.0 | 282.0 | 537.0 | 1881.0 | 3201.0 | 4381.0 | 5741.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 863.0 | 84.0 | 140.0 | 226.0 | 445.0 | 1603.0 | 2744.0 | 3765.0 | 4944.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 668.0 | 46.0 | 90.0 | 159.0 | 333.0 | 1261.0 | 2177.0 | 2999.0 | 3949.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 515.0 | 16.0 | 51.0 | 106.0 | 246.0 | 992.0 | 1730.0 | 2394.0 | 3162.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 467.0 | 6.0 | 39.0 | 90.0 | 219.0 | 910.0 | 1597.0 | 2215.0 | 2931.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 365.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 55.0 | 161.0 | 730.0 | 1296.0 | 1807.0 | 2399.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 299.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 32.0 | 123.0 | 614.0 | 1103.0 | 1545.0 | 2058.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 258.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 100.0 | 541.0 | 984.0 | 1383.0 | 1847.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 234.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 86.0 | 501.0 | 918.0 | 1296.0 | 1736.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 197.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 65.0 | 436.0 | 811.0 | 1152.0 | 1549.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 172.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 51.0 | 393.0 | 741.0 | 1058.0 | 1428.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 153.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 39.0 | 359.0 | 686.0 | 984.0 | 1333.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 134.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 29.0 | 327.0 | 633.0 | 913.0 | 1241.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 133.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 27.0 | 326.0 | 632.0 | 914.0 | 1244.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 113.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 290.0 | 573.0 | 833.0 | 1139.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 113.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 291.0 | 577.0 | 840.0 | 1149.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 104.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 276.0 | 552.0 | 806.0 | 1106.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 112.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 291.0 | 580.0 | 848.0 | 1163.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 97.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 265.0 | 536.0 | 786.0 | 1083.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 110.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 290.0 | 582.0 | 852.0 | 1171.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 108.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 287.0 | 578.0 | 847.0 | 1167.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 116.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 304.0 | 608.0 | 891.0 | 1227.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 122.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 316.0 | 631.0 | 924.0 | 1272.0 |
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