Prediction 4166
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Mato Grosso |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=MT (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 132.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 32.0 | 73.0 | 211.0 | 305.0 | 375.0 | 445.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 145.0 | 3.0 | 18.0 | 39.0 | 82.0 | 232.0 | 335.0 | 411.0 | 488.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 151.0 | 3.0 | 19.0 | 40.0 | 85.0 | 241.0 | 349.0 | 429.0 | 510.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 168.0 | 8.0 | 25.0 | 48.0 | 96.0 | 266.0 | 384.0 | 473.0 | 563.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 208.0 | 23.0 | 42.0 | 69.0 | 124.0 | 322.0 | 461.0 | 566.0 | 672.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 227.0 | 29.0 | 49.0 | 78.0 | 137.0 | 351.0 | 502.0 | 615.0 | 731.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 270.0 | 44.0 | 67.0 | 99.0 | 167.0 | 412.0 | 586.0 | 718.0 | 852.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 305.0 | 55.0 | 81.0 | 116.0 | 191.0 | 463.0 | 657.0 | 804.0 | 955.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 341.0 | 67.0 | 96.0 | 134.0 | 216.0 | 516.0 | 731.0 | 895.0 | 1063.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 339.0 | 65.0 | 93.0 | 131.0 | 213.0 | 514.0 | 732.0 | 898.0 | 1068.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 274.0 | 39.0 | 63.0 | 96.0 | 166.0 | 426.0 | 615.0 | 759.0 | 907.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 218.0 | 17.0 | 37.0 | 65.0 | 125.0 | 348.0 | 510.0 | 635.0 | 763.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 539.0 | 133.0 | 174.0 | 230.0 | 351.0 | 804.0 | 1136.0 | 1390.0 | 1652.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 611.0 | 157.0 | 203.0 | 265.0 | 401.0 | 909.0 | 1283.0 | 1570.0 | 1867.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 661.0 | 173.0 | 222.0 | 289.0 | 435.0 | 983.0 | 1388.0 | 1700.0 | 2023.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 713.0 | 189.0 | 242.0 | 314.0 | 470.0 | 1061.0 | 1498.0 | 1836.0 | 2186.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 785.0 | 213.0 | 269.0 | 348.0 | 519.0 | 1166.0 | 1648.0 | 2020.0 | 2407.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 825.0 | 224.0 | 284.0 | 366.0 | 545.0 | 1227.0 | 1736.0 | 2130.0 | 2539.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 849.0 | 230.0 | 291.0 | 376.0 | 560.0 | 1264.0 | 1791.0 | 2199.0 | 2624.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 772.0 | 202.0 | 258.0 | 336.0 | 505.0 | 1157.0 | 1646.0 | 2025.0 | 2420.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 827.0 | 219.0 | 279.0 | 361.0 | 542.0 | 1239.0 | 1763.0 | 2171.0 | 2596.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 814.0 | 212.0 | 271.0 | 353.0 | 532.0 | 1222.0 | 1743.0 | 2149.0 | 2572.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 832.0 | 217.0 | 277.0 | 361.0 | 543.0 | 1251.0 | 1787.0 | 2205.0 | 2641.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 841.0 | 218.0 | 279.0 | 363.0 | 548.0 | 1267.0 | 1812.0 | 2237.0 | 2682.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 798.0 | 202.0 | 260.0 | 341.0 | 518.0 | 1207.0 | 1731.0 | 2140.0 | 2569.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 813.0 | 206.0 | 265.0 | 347.0 | 527.0 | 1231.0 | 1767.0 | 2186.0 | 2626.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 831.0 | 210.0 | 270.0 | 354.0 | 538.0 | 1258.0 | 1809.0 | 2240.0 | 2691.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 782.0 | 193.0 | 250.0 | 329.0 | 504.0 | 1189.0 | 1714.0 | 2125.0 | 2557.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 732.0 | 175.0 | 229.0 | 303.0 | 468.0 | 1117.0 | 1615.0 | 2005.0 | 2415.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 725.0 | 172.0 | 225.0 | 299.0 | 463.0 | 1109.0 | 1605.0 | 1995.0 | 2404.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 669.0 | 152.0 | 202.0 | 271.0 | 424.0 | 1029.0 | 1494.0 | 1860.0 | 2244.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 616.0 | 134.0 | 180.0 | 245.0 | 387.0 | 952.0 | 1387.0 | 1729.0 | 2089.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 535.0 | 107.0 | 148.0 | 205.0 | 332.0 | 834.0 | 1222.0 | 1527.0 | 1849.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 473.0 | 86.0 | 123.0 | 175.0 | 289.0 | 744.0 | 1095.0 | 1372.0 | 1664.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 403.0 | 63.0 | 95.0 | 141.0 | 242.0 | 642.0 | 952.0 | 1197.0 | 1454.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 343.0 | 43.0 | 72.0 | 112.0 | 200.0 | 554.0 | 828.0 | 1044.0 | 1272.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 312.0 | 33.0 | 59.0 | 96.0 | 179.0 | 509.0 | 765.0 | 967.0 | 1180.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 271.0 | 19.0 | 42.0 | 76.0 | 151.0 | 449.0 | 682.0 | 865.0 | 1060.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 235.0 | 7.0 | 28.0 | 59.0 | 126.0 | 398.0 | 609.0 | 777.0 | 955.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 195.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 39.0 | 98.0 | 338.0 | 526.0 | 675.0 | 833.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 172.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 28.0 | 83.0 | 305.0 | 480.0 | 618.0 | 765.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 146.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 65.0 | 268.0 | 427.0 | 553.0 | 687.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 135.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 58.0 | 252.0 | 405.0 | 527.0 | 656.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 124.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 50.0 | 235.0 | 382.0 | 499.0 | 623.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 127.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 52.0 | 241.0 | 391.0 | 510.0 | 637.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 114.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 43.0 | 221.0 | 363.0 | 476.0 | 597.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 96.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 30.0 | 195.0 | 325.0 | 429.0 | 540.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 101.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 33.0 | 202.0 | 337.0 | 444.0 | 559.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 102.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 34.0 | 205.0 | 341.0 | 450.0 | 566.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 32.0 | 201.0 | 336.0 | 445.0 | 560.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 33.0 | 202.0 | 338.0 | 447.0 | 564.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 103.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 34.0 | 206.0 | 344.0 | 455.0 | 573.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
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