Prediction 4168
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Paraíba |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=PB (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 30.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 73.0 | 160.0 | 160.0 | 197.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 22.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 62.0 | 146.0 | 146.0 | 181.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 17.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 57.0 | 140.0 | 140.0 | 175.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 56.0 | 140.0 | 140.0 | 176.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 56.0 | 105.0 | 142.0 | 179.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 16.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 57.0 | 108.0 | 145.0 | 183.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 13.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 54.0 | 104.0 | 141.0 | 179.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 17.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 61.0 | 114.0 | 154.0 | 194.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 27.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75.0 | 133.0 | 177.0 | 221.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 22.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 69.0 | 126.0 | 169.0 | 213.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 18.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 64.0 | 120.0 | 162.0 | 205.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 49.0 | 100.0 | 139.0 | 179.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 26.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 76.0 | 138.0 | 184.0 | 232.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 31.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 83.0 | 148.0 | 197.0 | 247.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 38.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 94.0 | 162.0 | 215.0 | 269.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 54.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 116.0 | 193.0 | 252.0 | 313.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 68.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 137.0 | 223.0 | 289.0 | 356.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 80.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 28.0 | 155.0 | 248.0 | 319.0 | 392.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 96.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 38.0 | 177.0 | 279.0 | 357.0 | 437.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 108.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 47.0 | 195.0 | 304.0 | 388.0 | 474.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 133.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 64.0 | 231.0 | 354.0 | 448.0 | 546.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 151.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 28.0 | 76.0 | 257.0 | 390.0 | 492.0 | 599.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 180.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 43.0 | 96.0 | 299.0 | 449.0 | 564.0 | 684.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 187.0 | 2.0 | 20.0 | 46.0 | 101.0 | 309.0 | 464.0 | 583.0 | 707.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 194.0 | 4.0 | 23.0 | 49.0 | 105.0 | 320.0 | 480.0 | 603.0 | 731.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 227.0 | 15.0 | 36.0 | 65.0 | 128.0 | 368.0 | 546.0 | 684.0 | 828.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 253.0 | 24.0 | 46.0 | 78.0 | 146.0 | 406.0 | 600.0 | 750.0 | 906.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 268.0 | 28.0 | 52.0 | 85.0 | 156.0 | 428.0 | 631.0 | 789.0 | 953.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 278.0 | 31.0 | 56.0 | 89.0 | 163.0 | 443.0 | 653.0 | 816.0 | 985.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 309.0 | 42.0 | 68.0 | 105.0 | 184.0 | 488.0 | 717.0 | 894.0 | 1078.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 324.0 | 47.0 | 74.0 | 112.0 | 194.0 | 511.0 | 749.0 | 934.0 | 1126.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 340.0 | 52.0 | 80.0 | 119.0 | 205.0 | 534.0 | 782.0 | 975.0 | 1175.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 306.0 | 40.0 | 66.0 | 102.0 | 181.0 | 486.0 | 716.0 | 895.0 | 1081.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 300.0 | 37.0 | 63.0 | 99.0 | 177.0 | 478.0 | 706.0 | 883.0 | 1067.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 274.0 | 28.0 | 52.0 | 85.0 | 158.0 | 441.0 | 654.0 | 820.0 | 994.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 243.0 | 17.0 | 39.0 | 70.0 | 137.0 | 397.0 | 594.0 | 747.0 | 907.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 219.0 | 9.0 | 29.0 | 58.0 | 120.0 | 363.0 | 547.0 | 690.0 | 839.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 208.0 | 4.0 | 24.0 | 52.0 | 112.0 | 347.0 | 524.0 | 663.0 | 808.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 202.0 | 2.0 | 22.0 | 49.0 | 108.0 | 339.0 | 515.0 | 652.0 | 796.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 193.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 44.0 | 101.0 | 326.0 | 497.0 | 631.0 | 770.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 181.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 37.0 | 93.0 | 309.0 | 474.0 | 603.0 | 738.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 161.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 28.0 | 79.0 | 281.0 | 435.0 | 555.0 | 681.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 147.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 69.0 | 261.0 | 407.0 | 521.0 | 641.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 131.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 58.0 | 237.0 | 375.0 | 482.0 | 595.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 130.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 57.0 | 237.0 | 374.0 | 482.0 | 595.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 100.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 37.0 | 193.0 | 313.0 | 407.0 | 506.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 102.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 38.0 | 197.0 | 318.0 | 414.0 | 514.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 90.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 29.0 | 178.0 | 292.0 | 382.0 | 476.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 76.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 158.0 | 265.0 | 348.0 | 436.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 70.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 149.0 | 252.0 | 333.0 | 419.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 57.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 131.0 | 226.0 | 301.0 | 381.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 58.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 132.0 | 228.0 | 304.0 | 384.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
When the Confidence Interval is active, the Prediction will display the 50% and 90% bounds (upper and lower)
