Prediction 4170
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Piauí |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=PI (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 36.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 76.0 | 122.0 | 155.0 | 188.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 36.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 76.0 | 123.0 | 157.0 | 190.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 34.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 75.0 | 122.0 | 156.0 | 189.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 37.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 79.0 | 127.0 | 163.0 | 198.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 39.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 83.0 | 133.0 | 170.0 | 206.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 41.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 86.0 | 138.0 | 176.0 | 214.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 41.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 86.0 | 139.0 | 177.0 | 216.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 45.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 91.0 | 146.0 | 186.0 | 225.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 45.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 92.0 | 147.0 | 188.0 | 228.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 44.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 92.0 | 148.0 | 188.0 | 229.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 37.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 82.0 | 136.0 | 175.0 | 214.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 34.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 78.0 | 130.0 | 169.0 | 208.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 65.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 23.0 | 120.0 | 185.0 | 233.0 | 281.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 75.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 31.0 | 134.0 | 204.0 | 255.0 | 307.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 85.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 38.0 | 147.0 | 221.0 | 276.0 | 330.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 94.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 45.0 | 160.0 | 239.0 | 297.0 | 355.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 116.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 23.0 | 61.0 | 189.0 | 277.0 | 341.0 | 406.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 126.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 29.0 | 69.0 | 204.0 | 297.0 | 365.0 | 433.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 141.0 | 2.0 | 17.0 | 37.0 | 79.0 | 224.0 | 323.0 | 396.0 | 469.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 147.0 | 4.0 | 20.0 | 41.0 | 84.0 | 233.0 | 335.0 | 410.0 | 486.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 172.0 | 15.0 | 32.0 | 55.0 | 102.0 | 267.0 | 379.0 | 463.0 | 547.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 210.0 | 30.0 | 50.0 | 76.0 | 130.0 | 318.0 | 447.0 | 542.0 | 638.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 254.0 | 48.0 | 71.0 | 101.0 | 163.0 | 378.0 | 526.0 | 635.0 | 745.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 282.0 | 60.0 | 84.0 | 116.0 | 183.0 | 416.0 | 576.0 | 695.0 | 814.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 295.0 | 65.0 | 90.0 | 123.0 | 192.0 | 433.0 | 599.0 | 722.0 | 846.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 331.0 | 79.0 | 107.0 | 143.0 | 219.0 | 482.0 | 663.0 | 798.0 | 933.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 361.0 | 92.0 | 121.0 | 160.0 | 241.0 | 524.0 | 718.0 | 863.0 | 1009.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 394.0 | 105.0 | 136.0 | 178.0 | 265.0 | 568.0 | 778.0 | 933.0 | 1089.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 400.0 | 107.0 | 139.0 | 181.0 | 269.0 | 577.0 | 789.0 | 946.0 | 1105.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 401.0 | 108.0 | 139.0 | 182.0 | 270.0 | 578.0 | 791.0 | 949.0 | 1109.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 416.0 | 113.0 | 146.0 | 190.0 | 281.0 | 599.0 | 819.0 | 982.0 | 1147.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 407.0 | 110.0 | 142.0 | 184.0 | 274.0 | 587.0 | 803.0 | 964.0 | 1126.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 340.0 | 82.0 | 110.0 | 147.0 | 225.0 | 497.0 | 685.0 | 825.0 | 966.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 330.0 | 77.0 | 105.0 | 141.0 | 217.0 | 483.0 | 667.0 | 804.0 | 942.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 283.0 | 58.0 | 82.0 | 115.0 | 183.0 | 420.0 | 584.0 | 706.0 | 830.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 250.0 | 44.0 | 66.0 | 96.0 | 158.0 | 375.0 | 525.0 | 637.0 | 750.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 222.0 | 32.0 | 53.0 | 80.0 | 137.0 | 337.0 | 475.0 | 577.0 | 681.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 192.0 | 20.0 | 39.0 | 63.0 | 115.0 | 297.0 | 423.0 | 516.0 | 611.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 172.0 | 11.0 | 29.0 | 52.0 | 100.0 | 269.0 | 386.0 | 474.0 | 562.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 141.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 35.0 | 78.0 | 228.0 | 332.0 | 410.0 | 489.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 124.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 25.0 | 65.0 | 204.0 | 301.0 | 374.0 | 447.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 107.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 52.0 | 181.0 | 271.0 | 338.0 | 405.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 97.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 45.0 | 168.0 | 254.0 | 318.0 | 382.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 87.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 38.0 | 155.0 | 237.0 | 297.0 | 359.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 67.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 23.0 | 128.0 | 201.0 | 255.0 | 311.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 63.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 122.0 | 193.0 | 246.0 | 300.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 45.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 98.0 | 161.0 | 209.0 | 257.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 91.0 | 152.0 | 198.0 | 244.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 30.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 77.0 | 134.0 | 177.0 | 220.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 28.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 74.0 | 131.0 | 172.0 | 215.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 24.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 69.0 | 124.0 | 164.0 | 206.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 23.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 67.0 | 121.0 | 162.0 | 203.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
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