Prediction 4177
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Santa Catarina |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=SC (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 254.0 | 4.0 | 27.0 | 59.0 | 132.0 | 441.0 | 691.0 | 893.0 | 1109.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 248.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 | 53.0 | 126.0 | 436.0 | 690.0 | 897.0 | 1119.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 232.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 44.0 | 114.0 | 415.0 | 666.0 | 871.0 | 1092.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 216.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 35.0 | 102.0 | 395.0 | 641.0 | 844.0 | 1064.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 230.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 39.0 | 109.0 | 421.0 | 686.0 | 904.0 | 1143.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 244.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 43.0 | 117.0 | 447.0 | 730.0 | 965.0 | 1222.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 271.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 52.0 | 132.0 | 494.0 | 806.0 | 1067.0 | 1354.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 316.0 | 4.0 | 30.0 | 68.0 | 158.0 | 570.0 | 929.0 | 1230.0 | 1561.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 456.0 | 37.0 | 71.0 | 122.0 | 243.0 | 800.0 | 1290.0 | 1703.0 | 2159.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 504.0 | 46.0 | 83.0 | 139.0 | 270.0 | 884.0 | 1427.0 | 1886.0 | 2395.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 455.0 | 32.0 | 67.0 | 117.0 | 239.0 | 810.0 | 1320.0 | 1752.0 | 2233.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 306.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 57.0 | 146.0 | 568.0 | 947.0 | 1270.0 | 1629.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 220.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 23.0 | 93.0 | 429.0 | 733.0 | 993.0 | 1283.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 242.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 30.0 | 106.0 | 469.0 | 799.0 | 1083.0 | 1400.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 247.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 31.0 | 107.0 | 479.0 | 819.0 | 1112.0 | 1440.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 320.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 57.0 | 150.0 | 604.0 | 1022.0 | 1383.0 | 1789.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 505.0 | 33.0 | 70.0 | 125.0 | 259.0 | 919.0 | 1529.0 | 2058.0 | 2653.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 783.0 | 92.0 | 145.0 | 225.0 | 422.0 | 1394.0 | 2297.0 | 3081.0 | 3965.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 1066.0 | 151.0 | 221.0 | 327.0 | 587.0 | 1879.0 | 3085.0 | 4136.0 | 5323.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 1453.0 | 230.0 | 324.0 | 465.0 | 812.0 | 2546.0 | 4173.0 | 5592.0 | 7200.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 3317.0 | 620.0 | 825.0 | 1134.0 | 1899.0 | 5740.0 | 9359.0 | 12525.0 | 16116.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 5483.0 | 1066.0 | 1400.0 | 1905.0 | 3157.0 | 9473.0 | 15451.0 | 20690.0 | 26644.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 7805.0 | 1536.0 | 2007.0 | 2722.0 | 4497.0 | 13494.0 | 22043.0 | 29552.0 | 38099.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 11980.0 | 2379.0 | 3098.0 | 4189.0 | 6904.0 | 20733.0 | 33924.0 | 45533.0 | 58766.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 15223.0 | 3019.0 | 3929.0 | 5312.0 | 8760.0 | 26399.0 | 43284.0 | 58173.0 | 75168.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 17188.0 | 3392.0 | 4417.0 | 5975.0 | 9870.0 | 29876.0 | 49094.0 | 66071.0 | 85474.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 18367.0 | 3604.0 | 4695.0 | 6359.0 | 10524.0 | 32002.0 | 52703.0 | 71021.0 | 91984.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 19398.0 | 3783.0 | 4933.0 | 6688.0 | 11090.0 | 33875.0 | 55904.0 | 75431.0 | 97802.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 17271.0 | 3336.0 | 4359.0 | 5921.0 | 9846.0 | 30238.0 | 50012.0 | 67567.0 | 87704.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 18357.0 | 3528.0 | 4613.0 | 6271.0 | 10445.0 | 32206.0 | 53369.0 | 72186.0 | 93794.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 16282.0 | 3101.0 | 4062.0 | 5532.0 | 9240.0 | 28634.0 | 47546.0 | 64386.0 | 83744.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 12935.0 | 2432.0 | 3195.0 | 4365.0 | 7317.0 | 22810.0 | 37957.0 | 51464.0 | 67005.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 8713.0 | 1602.0 | 2117.0 | 2908.0 | 4905.0 | 15418.0 | 25722.0 | 34923.0 | 45520.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 6730.0 | 1212.0 | 1611.0 | 2223.0 | 3771.0 | 11948.0 | 19982.0 | 27164.0 | 35443.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 4443.0 | 768.0 | 1033.0 | 1440.0 | 2471.0 | 7928.0 | 13302.0 | 18113.0 | 23663.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 3558.0 | 596.0 | 809.0 | 1136.0 | 1967.0 | 6375.0 | 10726.0 | 14625.0 | 19128.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 2635.0 | 418.0 | 577.0 | 821.0 | 1442.0 | 4749.0 | 8018.0 | 10951.0 | 14341.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 1706.0 | 234.0 | 338.0 | 498.0 | 910.0 | 3130.0 | 5350.0 | 7353.0 | 9679.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 1229.0 | 139.0 | 214.0 | 332.0 | 636.0 | 2300.0 | 3987.0 | 5519.0 | 7306.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 958.0 | 85.0 | 145.0 | 238.0 | 480.0 | 1828.0 | 3210.0 | 4474.0 | 5955.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 711.0 | 38.0 | 84.0 | 155.0 | 341.0 | 1391.0 | 2480.0 | 3482.0 | 4662.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 588.0 | 14.0 | 53.0 | 113.0 | 271.0 | 1176.0 | 2125.0 | 3003.0 | 4040.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 530.0 | 2.0 | 37.0 | 92.0 | 237.0 | 1078.0 | 1968.0 | 2796.0 | 3779.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 407.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 52.0 | 169.0 | 854.0 | 1586.0 | 2271.0 | 3087.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 403.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 49.0 | 165.0 | 853.0 | 1595.0 | 2293.0 | 3127.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 375.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 39.0 | 149.0 | 807.0 | 1524.0 | 2200.0 | 3011.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 338.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 27.0 | 128.0 | 741.0 | 1413.0 | 2051.0 | 2818.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 312.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 113.0 | 696.0 | 1341.0 | 1956.0 | 2697.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 305.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 108.0 | 687.0 | 1331.0 | 1947.0 | 2692.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 285.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 97.0 | 653.0 | 1276.0 | 1874.0 | 2600.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 279.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 93.0 | 646.0 | 1269.0 | 1870.0 | 2601.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 214.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 59.0 | 520.0 | 1044.0 | 1550.0 | 2167.0 |
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