Prediction 4179
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | São Paulo |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=SP (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 571.0 | 90.0 | 133.0 | 194.0 | 335.0 | 936.0 | 1432.0 | 1835.0 | 2271.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 605.0 | 93.0 | 138.0 | 202.0 | 352.0 | 1000.0 | 1542.0 | 1988.0 | 2470.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 621.0 | 92.0 | 137.0 | 203.0 | 357.0 | 1038.0 | 1615.0 | 2093.0 | 2613.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 666.0 | 98.0 | 146.0 | 216.0 | 381.0 | 1121.0 | 1756.0 | 2286.0 | 2866.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 747.0 | 113.0 | 166.0 | 243.0 | 427.0 | 1263.0 | 1992.0 | 2602.0 | 3274.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 798.0 | 120.0 | 175.0 | 258.0 | 453.0 | 1358.0 | 2156.0 | 2829.0 | 3573.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 903.0 | 139.0 | 201.0 | 293.0 | 512.0 | 1543.0 | 2462.0 | 3242.0 | 4109.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 1034.0 | 164.0 | 234.0 | 337.0 | 587.0 | 1774.0 | 2845.0 | 3759.0 | 4779.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 1206.0 | 197.0 | 276.0 | 396.0 | 684.0 | 2075.0 | 3343.0 | 4431.0 | 5650.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 1358.0 | 224.0 | 312.0 | 445.0 | 769.0 | 2347.0 | 3801.0 | 5056.0 | 6467.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 1325.0 | 210.0 | 296.0 | 425.0 | 743.0 | 2310.0 | 3767.0 | 5032.0 | 6460.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 1249.0 | 187.0 | 268.0 | 390.0 | 692.0 | 2198.0 | 3611.0 | 4844.0 | 6240.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 2211.0 | 382.0 | 520.0 | 729.0 | 1247.0 | 3863.0 | 6340.0 | 8512.0 | 10980.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 2695.0 | 472.0 | 638.0 | 890.0 | 1519.0 | 4726.0 | 7789.0 | 10488.0 | 13565.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 3422.0 | 607.0 | 815.0 | 1132.0 | 1926.0 | 6020.0 | 9965.0 | 13455.0 | 17448.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 4188.0 | 745.0 | 997.0 | 1383.0 | 2352.0 | 7399.0 | 12302.0 | 16659.0 | 21660.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 5386.0 | 962.0 | 1283.0 | 1775.0 | 3018.0 | 9552.0 | 15949.0 | 21658.0 | 28231.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 6413.0 | 1140.0 | 1519.0 | 2102.0 | 3580.0 | 11427.0 | 19168.0 | 26105.0 | 34114.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 7507.0 | 1325.0 | 1765.0 | 2444.0 | 4174.0 | 13439.0 | 22648.0 | 30931.0 | 40522.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 8285.0 | 1446.0 | 1928.0 | 2675.0 | 4586.0 | 14905.0 | 25235.0 | 34562.0 | 45392.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 9747.0 | 1687.0 | 2252.0 | 3127.0 | 5374.0 | 17616.0 | 29954.0 | 41135.0 | 54152.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 10765.0 | 1843.0 | 2462.0 | 3426.0 | 5908.0 | 19546.0 | 33383.0 | 45968.0 | 60655.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 12137.0 | 2057.0 | 2751.0 | 3833.0 | 6634.0 | 22137.0 | 37967.0 | 52414.0 | 69317.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 12775.0 | 2138.0 | 2865.0 | 4001.0 | 6951.0 | 23409.0 | 40319.0 | 55803.0 | 73963.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 13034.0 | 2153.0 | 2891.0 | 4047.0 | 7060.0 | 23995.0 | 41499.0 | 57580.0 | 76482.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 13940.0 | 2277.0 | 3062.0 | 4295.0 | 7519.0 | 25772.0 | 44749.0 | 62237.0 | 82840.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 14423.0 | 2328.0 | 3136.0 | 4409.0 | 7747.0 | 26779.0 | 46678.0 | 65070.0 | 86786.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 13977.0 | 2224.0 | 3005.0 | 4236.0 | 7474.0 | 26064.0 | 45607.0 | 63723.0 | 85159.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 12285.0 | 1921.0 | 2605.0 | 3685.0 | 6536.0 | 23013.0 | 40427.0 | 56614.0 | 75808.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 10926.0 | 1678.0 | 2285.0 | 3244.0 | 5785.0 | 20559.0 | 36254.0 | 50884.0 | 68264.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 9063.0 | 1361.0 | 1863.0 | 2659.0 | 4771.0 | 17134.0 | 30331.0 | 42667.0 | 57349.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 7582.0 | 1112.0 | 1531.0 | 2197.0 | 3969.0 | 14403.0 | 25595.0 | 36084.0 | 48591.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 5152.0 | 720.0 | 1005.0 | 1459.0 | 2672.0 | 9851.0 | 17589.0 | 24857.0 | 33541.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 3917.0 | 521.0 | 738.0 | 1085.0 | 2013.0 | 7538.0 | 13520.0 | 19154.0 | 25896.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 2920.0 | 362.0 | 525.0 | 785.0 | 1483.0 | 5663.0 | 10208.0 | 14498.0 | 19642.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 2307.0 | 265.0 | 394.0 | 601.0 | 1157.0 | 4507.0 | 8165.0 | 11625.0 | 15781.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 1732.0 | 175.0 | 273.0 | 430.0 | 854.0 | 3418.0 | 6230.0 | 8896.0 | 12103.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 1386.0 | 120.0 | 199.0 | 326.0 | 670.0 | 2770.0 | 5089.0 | 7296.0 | 9958.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 985.0 | 58.0 | 115.0 | 207.0 | 459.0 | 2007.0 | 3730.0 | 5376.0 | 7367.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 855.0 | 37.0 | 87.0 | 168.0 | 389.0 | 1766.0 | 3309.0 | 4788.0 | 6583.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 717.0 | 15.0 | 58.0 | 127.0 | 316.0 | 1504.0 | 2845.0 | 4136.0 | 5706.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 622.0 | 0.0 | 37.0 | 98.0 | 266.0 | 1325.0 | 2529.0 | 3692.0 | 5110.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 558.0 | 0.0 | 24.0 | 79.0 | 231.0 | 1205.0 | 2318.0 | 3397.0 | 4717.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 493.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 60.0 | 197.0 | 1082.0 | 2100.0 | 3090.0 | 4304.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 427.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 41.0 | 163.0 | 956.0 | 1874.0 | 2770.0 | 3870.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 407.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 34.0 | 152.0 | 920.0 | 1815.0 | 2691.0 | 3769.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 354.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 124.0 | 818.0 | 1629.0 | 2426.0 | 3410.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 337.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 115.0 | 788.0 | 1580.0 | 2360.0 | 3325.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 363.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 127.0 | 845.0 | 1694.0 | 2533.0 | 3573.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 370.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | 129.0 | 861.0 | 1732.0 | 2595.0 | 3667.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 361.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 124.0 | 848.0 | 1714.0 | 2573.0 | 3643.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 372.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 129.0 | 873.0 | 1768.0 | 2659.0 | 3770.0 |
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