Prediction 4180
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Tocantins |
Description:
Validation test 2 for UF=TO (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-08 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 46.0 | 81.0 | 106.0 | 131.0 |
| 2023-10-15 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 55.0 | 93.0 | 120.0 | 146.0 |
| 2023-10-22 | 28.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 64.0 | 105.0 | 134.0 | 163.0 |
| 2023-10-29 | 33.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 71.0 | 114.0 | 145.0 | 176.0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 39.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 80.0 | 126.0 | 159.0 | 192.0 |
| 2023-11-12 | 53.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 98.0 | 150.0 | 188.0 | 225.0 |
| 2023-11-19 | 68.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 29.0 | 118.0 | 177.0 | 218.0 | 260.0 |
| 2023-11-26 | 90.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 45.0 | 147.0 | 214.0 | 262.0 | 310.0 |
| 2023-12-03 | 96.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 18.0 | 50.0 | 156.0 | 225.0 | 276.0 | 326.0 |
| 2023-12-10 | 106.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 23.0 | 57.0 | 170.0 | 244.0 | 298.0 | 351.0 |
| 2023-12-17 | 85.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 41.0 | 143.0 | 211.0 | 260.0 | 309.0 |
| 2023-12-24 | 72.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 31.0 | 127.0 | 191.0 | 237.0 | 283.0 |
| 2023-12-31 | 133.0 | 4.0 | 18.0 | 37.0 | 76.0 | 207.0 | 294.0 | 357.0 | 421.0 |
| 2024-01-07 | 149.0 | 10.0 | 26.0 | 46.0 | 88.0 | 229.0 | 323.0 | 392.0 | 460.0 |
| 2024-01-14 | 157.0 | 14.0 | 30.0 | 51.0 | 94.0 | 241.0 | 339.0 | 411.0 | 483.0 |
| 2024-01-21 | 176.0 | 21.0 | 38.0 | 61.0 | 108.0 | 266.0 | 373.0 | 451.0 | 528.0 |
| 2024-01-28 | 189.0 | 26.0 | 44.0 | 68.0 | 117.0 | 284.0 | 396.0 | 478.0 | 561.0 |
| 2024-02-04 | 203.0 | 32.0 | 51.0 | 76.0 | 128.0 | 304.0 | 423.0 | 510.0 | 597.0 |
| 2024-02-11 | 210.0 | 34.0 | 54.0 | 79.0 | 132.0 | 313.0 | 435.0 | 525.0 | 615.0 |
| 2024-02-18 | 193.0 | 26.0 | 45.0 | 69.0 | 120.0 | 292.0 | 408.0 | 494.0 | 580.0 |
| 2024-02-25 | 195.0 | 27.0 | 45.0 | 70.0 | 121.0 | 294.0 | 412.0 | 499.0 | 587.0 |
| 2024-03-03 | 201.0 | 29.0 | 48.0 | 73.0 | 125.0 | 304.0 | 425.0 | 515.0 | 604.0 |
| 2024-03-10 | 204.0 | 30.0 | 49.0 | 74.0 | 127.0 | 307.0 | 431.0 | 521.0 | 613.0 |
| 2024-03-17 | 202.0 | 28.0 | 47.0 | 73.0 | 125.0 | 305.0 | 428.0 | 519.0 | 610.0 |
| 2024-03-24 | 193.0 | 24.0 | 43.0 | 67.0 | 118.0 | 294.0 | 414.0 | 502.0 | 592.0 |
| 2024-03-31 | 205.0 | 29.0 | 48.0 | 74.0 | 127.0 | 310.0 | 436.0 | 529.0 | 622.0 |
| 2024-04-07 | 204.0 | 28.0 | 47.0 | 73.0 | 126.0 | 309.0 | 435.0 | 528.0 | 622.0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 197.0 | 25.0 | 44.0 | 69.0 | 121.0 | 301.0 | 424.0 | 515.0 | 607.0 |
| 2024-04-21 | 196.0 | 24.0 | 43.0 | 68.0 | 120.0 | 300.0 | 423.0 | 515.0 | 607.0 |
| 2024-04-28 | 203.0 | 27.0 | 46.0 | 71.0 | 124.0 | 309.0 | 436.0 | 530.0 | 625.0 |
| 2024-05-05 | 193.0 | 22.0 | 41.0 | 65.0 | 117.0 | 295.0 | 418.0 | 510.0 | 601.0 |
| 2024-05-12 | 182.0 | 18.0 | 35.0 | 59.0 | 109.0 | 282.0 | 401.0 | 489.0 | 579.0 |
| 2024-05-19 | 157.0 | 7.0 | 23.0 | 44.0 | 90.0 | 247.0 | 356.0 | 436.0 | 517.0 |
| 2024-05-26 | 140.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 35.0 | 78.0 | 225.0 | 328.0 | 403.0 | 480.0 |
| 2024-06-02 | 121.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 24.0 | 63.0 | 199.0 | 293.0 | 362.0 | 433.0 |
| 2024-06-09 | 103.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 50.0 | 175.0 | 262.0 | 327.0 | 392.0 |
| 2024-06-16 | 85.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 36.0 | 150.0 | 230.0 | 288.0 | 348.0 |
| 2024-06-23 | 73.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 27.0 | 135.0 | 209.0 | 264.0 | 320.0 |
| 2024-06-30 | 59.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 116.0 | 185.0 | 236.0 | 287.0 |
| 2024-07-07 | 53.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13.0 | 108.0 | 174.0 | 223.0 | 273.0 |
| 2024-07-14 | 48.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 101.0 | 165.0 | 213.0 | 261.0 |
| 2024-07-21 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 90.0 | 151.0 | 196.0 | 241.0 |
| 2024-07-28 | 44.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 96.0 | 158.0 | 205.0 | 252.0 |
| 2024-08-04 | 36.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 85.0 | 144.0 | 189.0 | 233.0 |
| 2024-08-11 | 40.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 90.0 | 151.0 | 196.0 | 242.0 |
| 2024-08-18 | 32.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 80.0 | 137.0 | 180.0 | 223.0 |
| 2024-08-25 | 28.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75.0 | 131.0 | 172.0 | 214.0 |
| 2024-09-01 | 26.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 72.0 | 127.0 | 168.0 | 210.0 |
| 2024-09-08 | 28.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 75.0 | 131.0 | 173.0 | 215.0 |
| 2024-09-15 | 27.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 73.0 | 128.0 | 170.0 | 212.0 |
| 2024-09-22 | 27.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 74.0 | 130.0 | 171.0 | 214.0 |
| 2024-09-29 | 26.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 72.0 | 127.0 | 169.0 | 210.0 |
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Confidence Interval
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Interval Bounds
When the Confidence Interval is active, the Prediction will display the 50% and 90% bounds (upper and lower)
