Prediction 4185
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Bahia |
Description:
Validation test 3 for UF=BA (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-06 | 420.0 | 74.0 | 108.0 | 155.0 | 257.0 | 657.0 | 961.0 | 1199.0 | 1448.0 |
| 2024-10-13 | 421.0 | 71.0 | 104.0 | 151.0 | 255.0 | 664.0 | 979.0 | 1227.0 | 1487.0 |
| 2024-10-20 | 411.0 | 64.0 | 97.0 | 143.0 | 245.0 | 655.0 | 973.0 | 1225.0 | 1490.0 |
| 2024-10-27 | 393.0 | 55.0 | 87.0 | 131.0 | 231.0 | 634.0 | 950.0 | 1201.0 | 1467.0 |
| 2024-11-03 | 411.0 | 58.0 | 90.0 | 137.0 | 241.0 | 665.0 | 1001.0 | 1269.0 | 1554.0 |
| 2024-11-10 | 410.0 | 55.0 | 88.0 | 134.0 | 239.0 | 670.0 | 1014.0 | 1289.0 | 1583.0 |
| 2024-11-17 | 430.0 | 58.0 | 92.0 | 140.0 | 249.0 | 703.0 | 1068.0 | 1362.0 | 1676.0 |
| 2024-11-24 | 450.0 | 61.0 | 97.0 | 147.0 | 261.0 | 739.0 | 1126.0 | 1439.0 | 1775.0 |
| 2024-12-01 | 457.0 | 61.0 | 97.0 | 147.0 | 263.0 | 754.0 | 1154.0 | 1478.0 | 1826.0 |
| 2024-12-08 | 430.0 | 51.0 | 85.0 | 133.0 | 244.0 | 716.0 | 1104.0 | 1419.0 | 1758.0 |
| 2024-12-15 | 362.0 | 30.0 | 59.0 | 101.0 | 198.0 | 614.0 | 958.0 | 1238.0 | 1541.0 |
| 2024-12-22 | 355.0 | 26.0 | 55.0 | 97.0 | 193.0 | 607.0 | 951.0 | 1233.0 | 1538.0 |
| 2024-12-29 | 702.0 | 120.0 | 171.0 | 244.0 | 414.0 | 1151.0 | 1767.0 | 2273.0 | 2821.0 |
| 2025-01-05 | 820.0 | 150.0 | 208.0 | 292.0 | 487.0 | 1342.0 | 2059.0 | 2650.0 | 3291.0 |
| 2025-01-12 | 941.0 | 180.0 | 245.0 | 341.0 | 562.0 | 1537.0 | 2360.0 | 3040.0 | 3779.0 |
| 2025-01-19 | 1119.0 | 224.0 | 301.0 | 412.0 | 673.0 | 1823.0 | 2800.0 | 3607.0 | 4487.0 |
| 2025-01-26 | 1420.0 | 300.0 | 396.0 | 535.0 | 860.0 | 2306.0 | 3538.0 | 4559.0 | 5675.0 |
| 2025-02-02 | 1628.0 | 350.0 | 459.0 | 617.0 | 988.0 | 2644.0 | 4061.0 | 5238.0 | 6526.0 |
| 2025-02-09 | 1908.0 | 419.0 | 545.0 | 729.0 | 1160.0 | 3098.0 | 4763.0 | 6150.0 | 7668.0 |
| 2025-02-16 | 2206.0 | 491.0 | 636.0 | 847.0 | 1343.0 | 3584.0 | 5516.0 | 7127.0 | 8896.0 |
| 2025-02-23 | 2472.0 | 554.0 | 715.0 | 951.0 | 1506.0 | 4021.0 | 6197.0 | 8017.0 | 10016.0 |
| 2025-03-02 | 2680.0 | 602.0 | 775.0 | 1030.0 | 1631.0 | 4364.0 | 6738.0 | 8726.0 | 10912.0 |
| 2025-03-09 | 2845.0 | 638.0 | 822.0 | 1092.0 | 1729.0 | 4641.0 | 7179.0 | 9307.0 | 11651.0 |
| 2025-03-16 | 2823.0 | 628.0 | 810.0 | 1077.0 | 1711.0 | 4617.0 | 7156.0 | 9289.0 | 11642.0 |
| 2025-03-23 | 2771.0 | 610.0 | 789.0 | 1052.0 | 1675.0 | 4543.0 | 7057.0 | 9172.0 | 11508.0 |
| 2025-03-30 | 3003.0 | 663.0 | 856.0 | 1140.0 | 1814.0 | 4929.0 | 7666.0 | 9973.0 | 12523.0 |
| 2025-04-06 | 2984.0 | 654.0 | 845.0 | 1127.0 | 1799.0 | 4908.0 | 7649.0 | 9962.0 | 12520.0 |
| 2025-04-13 | 2891.0 | 627.0 | 812.0 | 1086.0 | 1738.0 | 4766.0 | 7442.0 | 9703.0 | 12206.0 |
| 2025-04-20 | 2727.0 | 583.0 | 759.0 | 1017.0 | 1635.0 | 4509.0 | 7055.0 | 9209.0 | 11597.0 |
| 2025-04-27 | 2709.0 | 576.0 | 749.0 | 1006.0 | 1620.0 | 4486.0 | 7031.0 | 9187.0 | 11578.0 |
| 2025-05-04 | 2624.0 | 552.0 | 721.0 | 969.0 | 1565.0 | 4355.0 | 6837.0 | 8943.0 | 11280.0 |
| 2025-05-11 | 2286.0 | 468.0 | 616.0 | 834.0 | 1356.0 | 3809.0 | 5995.0 | 7851.0 | 9913.0 |
| 2025-05-18 | 1913.0 | 377.0 | 502.0 | 686.0 | 1127.0 | 3202.0 | 5056.0 | 6632.0 | 8383.0 |
| 2025-05-25 | 1698.0 | 325.0 | 436.0 | 600.0 | 994.0 | 2854.0 | 4518.0 | 5934.0 | 7510.0 |
| 2025-06-01 | 1429.0 | 260.0 | 354.0 | 494.0 | 829.0 | 2416.0 | 3838.0 | 5049.0 | 6398.0 |
| 2025-06-08 | 1166.0 | 197.0 | 275.0 | 390.0 | 669.0 | 1986.0 | 3169.0 | 4177.0 | 5300.0 |
| 2025-06-15 | 910.0 | 136.0 | 198.0 | 290.0 | 512.0 | 1566.0 | 2514.0 | 3323.0 | 4224.0 |
| 2025-06-22 | 844.0 | 119.0 | 177.0 | 263.0 | 471.0 | 1460.0 | 2353.0 | 3116.0 | 3968.0 |
| 2025-06-29 | 814.0 | 110.0 | 166.0 | 250.0 | 451.0 | 1414.0 | 2287.0 | 3033.0 | 3867.0 |
| 2025-07-06 | 753.0 | 95.0 | 147.0 | 225.0 | 413.0 | 1317.0 | 2138.0 | 2842.0 | 3629.0 |
| 2025-07-13 | 655.0 | 72.0 | 118.0 | 187.0 | 354.0 | 1158.0 | 1891.0 | 2520.0 | 3226.0 |
| 2025-07-20 | 567.0 | 51.0 | 91.0 | 152.0 | 300.0 | 1013.0 | 1665.0 | 2226.0 | 2855.0 |
| 2025-07-27 | 535.0 | 42.0 | 81.0 | 139.0 | 280.0 | 961.0 | 1586.0 | 2124.0 | 2728.0 |
| 2025-08-03 | 477.0 | 29.0 | 64.0 | 117.0 | 245.0 | 867.0 | 1440.0 | 1933.0 | 2488.0 |
| 2025-08-10 | 424.0 | 16.0 | 48.0 | 96.0 | 212.0 | 779.0 | 1302.0 | 1753.0 | 2260.0 |
| 2025-08-17 | 389.0 | 8.0 | 38.0 | 82.0 | 191.0 | 723.0 | 1214.0 | 1639.0 | 2117.0 |
| 2025-08-24 | 354.0 | 0.0 | 27.0 | 68.0 | 169.0 | 664.0 | 1122.0 | 1519.0 | 1966.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 319.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 55.0 | 149.0 | 608.0 | 1034.0 | 1403.0 | 1819.0 |
| 2025-09-07 | 298.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 47.0 | 136.0 | 573.0 | 980.0 | 1332.0 | 1730.0 |
| 2025-09-14 | 287.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 42.0 | 128.0 | 554.0 | 951.0 | 1295.0 | 1684.0 |
| 2025-09-21 | 274.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 37.0 | 121.0 | 534.0 | 920.0 | 1255.0 | 1633.0 |
| 2025-09-28 | 270.0 | 0.0 | 2.0 | 35.0 | 118.0 | 528.0 | 910.0 | 1243.0 | 1619.0 |
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