Prediction 4186
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Ceará |
Description:
Validation test 3 for UF=CE (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-06 | 34.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 86.0 | 149.0 | 196.0 | 245.0 |
| 2024-10-13 | 30.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 81.0 | 143.0 | 191.0 | 240.0 |
| 2024-10-20 | 27.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 78.0 | 142.0 | 190.0 | 239.0 |
| 2024-10-27 | 30.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 83.0 | 149.0 | 199.0 | 251.0 |
| 2024-11-03 | 38.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 96.0 | 168.0 | 223.0 | 280.0 |
| 2024-11-10 | 37.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 95.0 | 168.0 | 224.0 | 283.0 |
| 2024-11-17 | 51.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 116.0 | 199.0 | 263.0 | 329.0 |
| 2024-11-24 | 50.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 116.0 | 199.0 | 264.0 | 331.0 |
| 2024-12-01 | 56.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 125.0 | 214.0 | 282.0 | 354.0 |
| 2024-12-08 | 52.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 120.0 | 207.0 | 275.0 | 346.0 |
| 2024-12-15 | 35.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 97.0 | 176.0 | 238.0 | 302.0 |
| 2024-12-22 | 20.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 76.0 | 147.0 | 203.0 | 261.0 |
| 2024-12-29 | 64.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 140.0 | 239.0 | 316.0 | 398.0 |
| 2025-01-05 | 82.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 24.0 | 168.0 | 279.0 | 366.0 | 458.0 |
| 2025-01-12 | 116.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 47.0 | 219.0 | 353.0 | 458.0 | 569.0 |
| 2025-01-19 | 144.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 16.0 | 65.0 | 261.0 | 414.0 | 534.0 | 662.0 |
| 2025-01-26 | 194.0 | 0.0 | 12.0 | 39.0 | 98.0 | 336.0 | 522.0 | 670.0 | 825.0 |
| 2025-02-02 | 222.0 | 2.0 | 22.0 | 52.0 | 117.0 | 380.0 | 586.0 | 749.0 | 922.0 |
| 2025-02-09 | 266.0 | 15.0 | 38.0 | 71.0 | 145.0 | 445.0 | 681.0 | 869.0 | 1068.0 |
| 2025-02-16 | 296.0 | 23.0 | 49.0 | 85.0 | 165.0 | 492.0 | 750.0 | 956.0 | 1174.0 |
| 2025-02-23 | 355.0 | 41.0 | 70.0 | 111.0 | 204.0 | 582.0 | 881.0 | 1119.0 | 1373.0 |
| 2025-03-02 | 416.0 | 59.0 | 92.0 | 139.0 | 244.0 | 675.0 | 1017.0 | 1290.0 | 1581.0 |
| 2025-03-09 | 467.0 | 73.0 | 109.0 | 161.0 | 277.0 | 752.0 | 1131.0 | 1433.0 | 1756.0 |
| 2025-03-16 | 474.0 | 74.0 | 111.0 | 163.0 | 281.0 | 765.0 | 1152.0 | 1461.0 | 1791.0 |
| 2025-03-23 | 543.0 | 94.0 | 135.0 | 194.0 | 326.0 | 870.0 | 1306.0 | 1655.0 | 2028.0 |
| 2025-03-30 | 768.0 | 161.0 | 217.0 | 296.0 | 474.0 | 1213.0 | 1805.0 | 2281.0 | 2789.0 |
| 2025-04-06 | 838.0 | 181.0 | 241.0 | 326.0 | 519.0 | 1321.0 | 1965.0 | 2483.0 | 3036.0 |
| 2025-04-13 | 905.0 | 199.0 | 264.0 | 355.0 | 562.0 | 1425.0 | 2119.0 | 2678.0 | 3275.0 |
| 2025-04-20 | 918.0 | 202.0 | 267.0 | 360.0 | 570.0 | 1447.0 | 2155.0 | 2725.0 | 3335.0 |
| 2025-04-27 | 950.0 | 210.0 | 277.0 | 373.0 | 590.0 | 1497.0 | 2231.0 | 2822.0 | 3455.0 |
| 2025-05-04 | 970.0 | 215.0 | 283.0 | 381.0 | 602.0 | 1530.0 | 2281.0 | 2888.0 | 3537.0 |
| 2025-05-11 | 950.0 | 208.0 | 275.0 | 371.0 | 588.0 | 1502.0 | 2243.0 | 2842.0 | 3484.0 |
| 2025-05-18 | 857.0 | 179.0 | 241.0 | 328.0 | 527.0 | 1362.0 | 2040.0 | 2589.0 | 3177.0 |
| 2025-05-25 | 766.0 | 152.0 | 207.0 | 287.0 | 466.0 | 1225.0 | 1841.0 | 2340.0 | 2876.0 |
| 2025-06-01 | 736.0 | 143.0 | 196.0 | 272.0 | 446.0 | 1180.0 | 1778.0 | 2262.0 | 2782.0 |
| 2025-06-08 | 675.0 | 124.0 | 174.0 | 244.0 | 406.0 | 1087.0 | 1644.0 | 2094.0 | 2579.0 |
| 2025-06-15 | 601.0 | 102.0 | 147.0 | 211.0 | 357.0 | 975.0 | 1480.0 | 1889.0 | 2330.0 |
| 2025-06-22 | 538.0 | 83.0 | 124.0 | 182.0 | 315.0 | 880.0 | 1343.0 | 1718.0 | 2122.0 |
| 2025-06-29 | 505.0 | 73.0 | 111.0 | 167.0 | 293.0 | 831.0 | 1273.0 | 1632.0 | 2019.0 |
| 2025-07-06 | 434.0 | 52.0 | 86.0 | 134.0 | 246.0 | 723.0 | 1114.0 | 1433.0 | 1777.0 |
| 2025-07-13 | 388.0 | 38.0 | 69.0 | 114.0 | 216.0 | 654.0 | 1015.0 | 1309.0 | 1626.0 |
| 2025-07-20 | 376.0 | 34.0 | 64.0 | 108.0 | 208.0 | 636.0 | 989.0 | 1278.0 | 1589.0 |
| 2025-07-27 | 350.0 | 26.0 | 55.0 | 96.0 | 191.0 | 597.0 | 933.0 | 1207.0 | 1503.0 |
| 2025-08-03 | 308.0 | 14.0 | 40.0 | 77.0 | 163.0 | 532.0 | 839.0 | 1089.0 | 1359.0 |
| 2025-08-10 | 281.0 | 6.0 | 30.0 | 65.0 | 145.0 | 492.0 | 779.0 | 1014.0 | 1268.0 |
| 2025-08-17 | 237.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 46.0 | 117.0 | 424.0 | 679.0 | 888.0 | 1114.0 |
| 2025-08-24 | 192.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 26.0 | 87.0 | 354.0 | 575.0 | 757.0 | 954.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 184.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 | 82.0 | 342.0 | 558.0 | 736.0 | 928.0 |
| 2025-09-07 | 158.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 66.0 | 303.0 | 501.0 | 663.0 | 839.0 |
| 2025-09-14 | 149.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 60.0 | 289.0 | 481.0 | 638.0 | 809.0 |
| 2025-09-21 | 126.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 45.0 | 253.0 | 427.0 | 571.0 | 726.0 |
| 2025-09-28 | 112.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 36.0 | 232.0 | 396.0 | 531.0 | 677.0 |
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Interval Bounds
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