Prediction 4187
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Distrito Federal |
Description:
Validation test 3 for UF=DF (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-06 | 177.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 39.0 | 93.0 | 298.0 | 451.0 | 569.0 | 693.0 |
| 2024-10-13 | 183.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 40.0 | 96.0 | 311.0 | 474.0 | 601.0 | 733.0 |
| 2024-10-20 | 166.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 29.0 | 82.0 | 289.0 | 448.0 | 572.0 | 703.0 |
| 2024-10-27 | 159.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 24.0 | 76.0 | 282.0 | 442.0 | 569.0 | 702.0 |
| 2024-11-03 | 179.0 | 0.0 | 6.0 | 31.0 | 88.0 | 315.0 | 493.0 | 634.0 | 783.0 |
| 2024-11-10 | 192.0 | 0.0 | 9.0 | 35.0 | 95.0 | 337.0 | 529.0 | 682.0 | 845.0 |
| 2024-11-17 | 212.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 43.0 | 107.0 | 372.0 | 583.0 | 753.0 | 934.0 |
| 2024-11-24 | 227.0 | 0.0 | 18.0 | 47.0 | 115.0 | 397.0 | 626.0 | 809.0 | 1006.0 |
| 2024-12-01 | 270.0 | 7.0 | 31.0 | 65.0 | 142.0 | 467.0 | 733.0 | 948.0 | 1179.0 |
| 2024-12-08 | 294.0 | 12.0 | 37.0 | 73.0 | 155.0 | 507.0 | 796.0 | 1031.0 | 1285.0 |
| 2024-12-15 | 279.0 | 6.0 | 30.0 | 64.0 | 144.0 | 488.0 | 773.0 | 1007.0 | 1259.0 |
| 2024-12-22 | 262.0 | 0.0 | 22.0 | 55.0 | 132.0 | 466.0 | 745.0 | 974.0 | 1223.0 |
| 2024-12-29 | 440.0 | 45.0 | 80.0 | 129.0 | 244.0 | 749.0 | 1174.0 | 1525.0 | 1907.0 |
| 2025-01-05 | 454.0 | 47.0 | 81.0 | 132.0 | 250.0 | 775.0 | 1220.0 | 1589.0 | 1992.0 |
| 2025-01-12 | 527.0 | 63.0 | 103.0 | 160.0 | 294.0 | 896.0 | 1411.0 | 1839.0 | 2307.0 |
| 2025-01-19 | 573.0 | 73.0 | 115.0 | 177.0 | 322.0 | 976.0 | 1540.0 | 2011.0 | 2527.0 |
| 2025-01-26 | 671.0 | 95.0 | 143.0 | 214.0 | 380.0 | 1139.0 | 1798.0 | 2349.0 | 2956.0 |
| 2025-02-02 | 744.0 | 110.0 | 163.0 | 240.0 | 423.0 | 1262.0 | 1996.0 | 2613.0 | 3293.0 |
| 2025-02-09 | 737.0 | 105.0 | 157.0 | 234.0 | 416.0 | 1257.0 | 1997.0 | 2622.0 | 3312.0 |
| 2025-02-16 | 782.0 | 113.0 | 168.0 | 248.0 | 441.0 | 1337.0 | 2130.0 | 2802.0 | 3545.0 |
| 2025-02-23 | 859.0 | 129.0 | 188.0 | 276.0 | 486.0 | 1470.0 | 2347.0 | 3092.0 | 3919.0 |
| 2025-03-02 | 924.0 | 141.0 | 204.0 | 298.0 | 522.0 | 1583.0 | 2534.0 | 3344.0 | 4245.0 |
| 2025-03-09 | 965.0 | 148.0 | 213.0 | 310.0 | 544.0 | 1658.0 | 2663.0 | 3520.0 | 4477.0 |
| 2025-03-16 | 1036.0 | 161.0 | 231.0 | 334.0 | 585.0 | 1784.0 | 2871.0 | 3802.0 | 4843.0 |
| 2025-03-23 | 1041.0 | 159.0 | 229.0 | 333.0 | 585.0 | 1801.0 | 2909.0 | 3860.0 | 4926.0 |
| 2025-03-30 | 1066.0 | 162.0 | 233.0 | 339.0 | 597.0 | 1849.0 | 2996.0 | 3984.0 | 5093.0 |
| 2025-04-06 | 1202.0 | 189.0 | 268.0 | 387.0 | 676.0 | 2086.0 | 3385.0 | 4507.0 | 5768.0 |
| 2025-04-13 | 1163.0 | 177.0 | 254.0 | 368.0 | 649.0 | 2027.0 | 3303.0 | 4407.0 | 5651.0 |
| 2025-04-20 | 1128.0 | 167.0 | 241.0 | 353.0 | 626.0 | 1977.0 | 3233.0 | 4323.0 | 5553.0 |
| 2025-04-27 | 1132.0 | 165.0 | 239.0 | 351.0 | 626.0 | 1991.0 | 3265.0 | 4374.0 | 5629.0 |
| 2025-05-04 | 1073.0 | 150.0 | 220.0 | 327.0 | 589.0 | 1898.0 | 3126.0 | 4198.0 | 5411.0 |
| 2025-05-11 | 1020.0 | 136.0 | 203.0 | 305.0 | 555.0 | 1813.0 | 2999.0 | 4035.0 | 5211.0 |
| 2025-05-18 | 871.0 | 103.0 | 161.0 | 249.0 | 466.0 | 1564.0 | 2602.0 | 3513.0 | 4547.0 |
| 2025-05-25 | 832.0 | 93.0 | 149.0 | 233.0 | 442.0 | 1503.0 | 2511.0 | 3396.0 | 4404.0 |
| 2025-06-01 | 706.0 | 65.0 | 113.0 | 186.0 | 367.0 | 1291.0 | 2171.0 | 2947.0 | 3830.0 |
| 2025-06-08 | 619.0 | 46.0 | 89.0 | 154.0 | 316.0 | 1144.0 | 1938.0 | 2638.0 | 3437.0 |
| 2025-06-15 | 485.0 | 18.0 | 53.0 | 105.0 | 237.0 | 915.0 | 1567.0 | 2144.0 | 2802.0 |
| 2025-06-22 | 374.0 | 0.0 | 23.0 | 65.0 | 172.0 | 725.0 | 1258.0 | 1731.0 | 2272.0 |
| 2025-06-29 | 321.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | 46.0 | 141.0 | 634.0 | 1113.0 | 1538.0 | 2025.0 |
| 2025-07-06 | 289.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 34.0 | 122.0 | 581.0 | 1027.0 | 1425.0 | 1881.0 |
| 2025-07-13 | 247.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 19.0 | 97.0 | 510.0 | 913.0 | 1272.0 | 1685.0 |
| 2025-07-20 | 214.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 78.0 | 453.0 | 820.0 | 1149.0 | 1527.0 |
| 2025-07-27 | 211.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 76.0 | 450.0 | 818.0 | 1147.0 | 1527.0 |
| 2025-08-03 | 182.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 59.0 | 401.0 | 738.0 | 1041.0 | 1390.0 |
| 2025-08-10 | 181.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 58.0 | 399.0 | 737.0 | 1042.0 | 1393.0 |
| 2025-08-17 | 161.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 46.0 | 364.0 | 681.0 | 966.0 | 1297.0 |
| 2025-08-24 | 165.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 48.0 | 373.0 | 697.0 | 990.0 | 1329.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 171.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 51.0 | 386.0 | 721.0 | 1024.0 | 1375.0 |
| 2025-09-07 | 179.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 55.0 | 400.0 | 747.0 | 1061.0 | 1426.0 |
| 2025-09-14 | 164.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 47.0 | 375.0 | 706.0 | 1006.0 | 1356.0 |
| 2025-09-21 | 171.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 50.0 | 388.0 | 730.0 | 1041.0 | 1403.0 |
| 2025-09-28 | 161.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 44.0 | 372.0 | 704.0 | 1006.0 | 1359.0 |
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