Prediction 4188
| Model | UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2 |
|---|---|
| Author | Americo Cunha Jr |
| ADM 1 | Espírito Santo |
Description:
Validation test 3 for UF=ES (UERJ-SARIMAX-2025-2)
Show Table
| date | pred | lower_95 | lower_90 | lower_80 | lower_50 | upper_50 | upper_80 | upper_90 | upper_95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-06 | 772.0 | 140.0 | 195.0 | 275.0 | 459.0 | 1260.0 | 1929.0 | 2478.0 | 3073.0 |
| 2024-10-13 | 730.0 | 121.0 | 173.0 | 249.0 | 426.0 | 1210.0 | 1874.0 | 2424.0 | 3023.0 |
| 2024-10-20 | 721.0 | 112.0 | 163.0 | 238.0 | 415.0 | 1209.0 | 1893.0 | 2462.0 | 3087.0 |
| 2024-10-27 | 706.0 | 102.0 | 152.0 | 226.0 | 400.0 | 1199.0 | 1896.0 | 2481.0 | 3125.0 |
| 2024-11-03 | 702.0 | 95.0 | 145.0 | 218.0 | 393.0 | 1205.0 | 1923.0 | 2530.0 | 3202.0 |
| 2024-11-10 | 686.0 | 86.0 | 134.0 | 206.0 | 378.0 | 1191.0 | 1919.0 | 2537.0 | 3226.0 |
| 2024-11-17 | 687.0 | 81.0 | 129.0 | 201.0 | 375.0 | 1204.0 | 1956.0 | 2599.0 | 3318.0 |
| 2024-11-24 | 743.0 | 89.0 | 141.0 | 217.0 | 404.0 | 1310.0 | 2141.0 | 2856.0 | 3659.0 |
| 2024-12-01 | 782.0 | 93.0 | 146.0 | 227.0 | 423.0 | 1388.0 | 2281.0 | 3056.0 | 3929.0 |
| 2024-12-08 | 820.0 | 97.0 | 152.0 | 236.0 | 441.0 | 1465.0 | 2424.0 | 3259.0 | 4205.0 |
| 2024-12-15 | 782.0 | 84.0 | 137.0 | 217.0 | 415.0 | 1412.0 | 2356.0 | 3183.0 | 4122.0 |
| 2024-12-22 | 835.0 | 91.0 | 147.0 | 231.0 | 441.0 | 1514.0 | 2540.0 | 3443.0 | 4473.0 |
| 2024-12-29 | 810.0 | 82.0 | 136.0 | 218.0 | 423.0 | 1482.0 | 2504.0 | 3409.0 | 4445.0 |
| 2025-01-05 | 940.0 | 104.0 | 165.0 | 258.0 | 494.0 | 1722.0 | 2919.0 | 3983.0 | 5206.0 |
| 2025-01-12 | 997.0 | 111.0 | 175.0 | 273.0 | 522.0 | 1835.0 | 3125.0 | 4279.0 | 5608.0 |
| 2025-01-19 | 1014.0 | 110.0 | 175.0 | 274.0 | 528.0 | 1879.0 | 3218.0 | 4420.0 | 5811.0 |
| 2025-01-26 | 1025.0 | 108.0 | 173.0 | 273.0 | 529.0 | 1910.0 | 3290.0 | 4534.0 | 5978.0 |
| 2025-02-02 | 1073.0 | 113.0 | 180.0 | 285.0 | 552.0 | 2010.0 | 3477.0 | 4807.0 | 6355.0 |
| 2025-02-09 | 1107.0 | 115.0 | 184.0 | 291.0 | 567.0 | 2083.0 | 3621.0 | 5021.0 | 6656.0 |
| 2025-02-16 | 1116.0 | 114.0 | 182.0 | 290.0 | 568.0 | 2113.0 | 3692.0 | 5135.0 | 6824.0 |
| 2025-02-23 | 1142.0 | 115.0 | 185.0 | 294.0 | 579.0 | 2173.0 | 3815.0 | 5321.0 | 7090.0 |
| 2025-03-02 | 1184.0 | 118.0 | 190.0 | 303.0 | 598.0 | 2263.0 | 3991.0 | 5582.0 | 7454.0 |
| 2025-03-09 | 1215.0 | 120.0 | 193.0 | 309.0 | 611.0 | 2332.0 | 4131.0 | 5792.0 | 7754.0 |
| 2025-03-16 | 1159.0 | 108.0 | 177.0 | 287.0 | 577.0 | 2241.0 | 3991.0 | 5613.0 | 7533.0 |
| 2025-03-23 | 1156.0 | 104.0 | 173.0 | 283.0 | 572.0 | 2246.0 | 4019.0 | 5668.0 | 7624.0 |
| 2025-03-30 | 1175.0 | 104.0 | 174.0 | 285.0 | 579.0 | 2294.0 | 4121.0 | 5827.0 | 7855.0 |
| 2025-04-06 | 1136.0 | 95.0 | 163.0 | 270.0 | 555.0 | 2231.0 | 4028.0 | 5711.0 | 7717.0 |
| 2025-04-13 | 1129.0 | 92.0 | 158.0 | 265.0 | 548.0 | 2229.0 | 4041.0 | 5743.0 | 7777.0 |
| 2025-04-20 | 1060.0 | 79.0 | 141.0 | 241.0 | 509.0 | 2109.0 | 3843.0 | 5477.0 | 7434.0 |
| 2025-04-27 | 1020.0 | 70.0 | 131.0 | 227.0 | 486.0 | 2041.0 | 3737.0 | 5340.0 | 7264.0 |
| 2025-05-04 | 957.0 | 59.0 | 115.0 | 206.0 | 450.0 | 1929.0 | 3550.0 | 5086.0 | 6934.0 |
| 2025-05-11 | 892.0 | 47.0 | 100.0 | 185.0 | 415.0 | 1813.0 | 3354.0 | 4819.0 | 6585.0 |
| 2025-05-18 | 827.0 | 36.0 | 85.0 | 164.0 | 379.0 | 1695.0 | 3153.0 | 4543.0 | 6221.0 |
| 2025-05-25 | 826.0 | 34.0 | 83.0 | 162.0 | 376.0 | 1699.0 | 3171.0 | 4579.0 | 6282.0 |
| 2025-06-01 | 801.0 | 29.0 | 77.0 | 153.0 | 362.0 | 1657.0 | 3106.0 | 4495.0 | 6178.0 |
| 2025-06-08 | 760.0 | 22.0 | 67.0 | 140.0 | 339.0 | 1583.0 | 2981.0 | 4324.0 | 5955.0 |
| 2025-06-15 | 712.0 | 14.0 | 56.0 | 125.0 | 313.0 | 1496.0 | 2831.0 | 4117.0 | 5682.0 |
| 2025-06-22 | 613.0 | 0.0 | 36.0 | 96.0 | 261.0 | 1306.0 | 2491.0 | 3636.0 | 5031.0 |
| 2025-06-29 | 622.0 | 0.0 | 37.0 | 97.0 | 265.0 | 1330.0 | 2545.0 | 3722.0 | 5159.0 |
| 2025-07-06 | 570.0 | 0.0 | 26.0 | 82.0 | 237.0 | 1233.0 | 2373.0 | 3480.0 | 4834.0 |
| 2025-07-13 | 498.0 | 0.0 | 11.0 | 61.0 | 200.0 | 1093.0 | 2121.0 | 3122.0 | 4348.0 |
| 2025-07-20 | 481.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 55.0 | 190.0 | 1063.0 | 2072.0 | 3057.0 | 4266.0 |
| 2025-07-27 | 466.0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | 50.0 | 182.0 | 1036.0 | 2028.0 | 2999.0 | 4192.0 |
| 2025-08-03 | 438.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 42.0 | 167.0 | 985.0 | 1939.0 | 2874.0 | 4026.0 |
| 2025-08-10 | 431.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 39.0 | 163.0 | 974.0 | 1923.0 | 2856.0 | 4008.0 |
| 2025-08-17 | 398.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 30.0 | 145.0 | 910.0 | 1809.0 | 2694.0 | 3789.0 |
| 2025-08-24 | 351.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 17.0 | 122.0 | 817.0 | 1638.0 | 2448.0 | 3451.0 |
| 2025-08-31 | 306.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | 99.0 | 728.0 | 1474.0 | 2212.0 | 3126.0 |
| 2025-09-07 | 307.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 99.0 | 734.0 | 1489.0 | 2238.0 | 3167.0 |
| 2025-09-14 | 307.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | 98.0 | 736.0 | 1497.0 | 2253.0 | 3193.0 |
| 2025-09-21 | 279.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 84.0 | 680.0 | 1394.0 | 2104.0 | 2988.0 |
| 2025-09-28 | 273.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 81.0 | 670.0 | 1379.0 | 2085.0 | 2966.0 |
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